Liverpool welcome Paris Saint-Germain to Anfield, leading 1-0 from the first leg of their last 16 UEFA Champions League tie. Look ahead to the match with our Liverpool vs PSG prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer sees Liverpool as favourites to advance, and they win again on the night in 42.6% of its 10,000 simulations.
Paris Saint-Germain have lost on their two previous visits to Anfield.
Mohamed Salah has played more games against PSG without scoring than against any other opponent in the Champions League (three).
Liverpool host Paris Saint-Germain with a one-goal advantage in their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie. Nobody will ever understand how they won the first leg last week, though.
The match at the Parc des Princes was so one-sided in PSG’s favour that their defeat bordered on absurd. Liverpool had just two shots, collectively worth 0.27 expected goals (xG); it was their fewest goal attempts on record in a knockout game in this competition.
Fortunately for Arne Slot, one of them fell to his lucky charm. Despite limited opportunities, Harvey Elliott has scored in Liverpool’s last three Champions League games.
The player of the match was at the opposite end, though. Alisson made nine saves to preserve his clean sheet, with his 2.3 goals prevented (according to xGOT data) being a new personal best for the club in all competitions.
If the Brazilian keeps PSG at bay again here, he will likely set another new record (for the period since 2003-04). The most saves without conceding over two legs of a Champions League knockout tie is 12, achieved by Gianluigi Buffon in 2012-13 (versus Celtic) and Hugo Lloris in 2018-19 (against Borussia Dortmund).
To minimise the risk of Alisson being beaten, Liverpool must deal with PSG’s formidable dribblers more effectively than they did in Paris. They collectively completed 19 dribbles in the first leg, the most against the Reds in the Champions League since Porto logged 21 seven years ago.
Ousmane Dembélé topped the standings, with five, but Vitinha only completed one fewer and his powers of ball retention will be integral to PSG’s hopes of a comeback.
He has completed 474 passes under high-intensity pressure in the Champions League this season, at least 100 more than any other player. Liverpool will need to direct their pressing elsewhere, as they will get little out of Vitinha.
The former Wolves midfielder and Dembélé were among the substitutes for PSG’s 4-1 win at Rennes on Saturday, though both did arrive off the bench in the second half. The latter scored twice in stoppage time to take his goals total to 28 in all competitions this season, and 20 in 15 games since the turn of the year.
Achraf Hakimi, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Nuno Mendes also only made cameos, while Gianluigi Donnarumma and Fabián Ruiz remained on the bench. With Marquinhos not involved at all, Luis Enrique was able to rest most of his key men to some extent.
Slot would have wanted to dispense with Southampton more easily this weekend, but Liverpool had to come from behind to win 3-1. The Dutch coach was at least able to perform in-game rotation, with Curtis Jones, Alexis Mac Allister, Andy Robertson and Dominik Szoboszlai each only playing 45 minutes.
Mohamed Salah scored twice from the spot against Southampton to become Liverpool’s outright third-highest scorer ever. As strange as it sounds during a season in which he sets new records on a weekly basis, his team need’s more from him in this match than they got in the first leg.
The Egyptian failed to attempt a shot for just the second time as a Liverpool player in this competition, following a blank against Real Madrid in March 2023. Salah has also played more games without scoring against PSG (three) than any other side in the Champions League.
He should have at least one shot here, so dominant is Liverpool’s home record. They have won all four European matches at Anfield in 2024-25, meaning Slot could become the first manager to win each of his first five home matches in charge of an English side in this competition.
The club are also on a run of 14 Champions League ties successfully negotiated when winning the first leg. However, if any team can bring this streak shuddering to a halt, it is PSG.
They have progressed from two of their previous five Champions League knockout ties after losing the first leg. PSG came back to beat Borussia Dortmund on aggregate in the 2019-20 last 16 (3-2) and Barcelona in the 2023-24 quarter-finals (6-4).
The latter is particularly pertinent here. Since away goals were abolished in European competitions in 2021, there have been six Champions League first legs that ended in one-goal away wins. Five saw those visiting teams go on to win the tie.
But having lost 3-2 to Barcelona in April 2024, PSG stunned them with a 4-1 victory in Spain to progress when few people gave them a hope of doing so. None of the last 15 French sides to play away from home against English opposition in Europe have managed to win. Luis Enrique’s men upset the odds against a European giant last year, and will believe they can do so again.
Liverpool vs PSG Head-to-Head
Prior to Liverpool’s win at the Parc des Princes last week, they had played four previous games against Paris Saint-Germain. Each side won their respective home matches.
Their only Champions League meetings occurred in the group stage in 2018-19, the season in which Liverpool became champions of Europe for a sixth time. At Anfield, PSG fought back from 2-0 down to level, only for substitute Roberto Firmino to score a 92nd-minute winner.
In the return match, the goalscoring was confined to the first half. Juan Bernat and Neymar put PSG in control before a James Milner penalty halved the deficit.
Liverpool vs PSG Prediction
Liverpool have a 42.6% chance of beating PSG again on the night according to the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, and are given a 75% chance of advancing.
The visitors have around a one-in-three shot (34.0%) of getting the win they need to at least force extra time, with a draw rated as a 23.4% possibility.
PSG have a 25% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, with the victors in this tie playing either Aston Villa or Club Brugge in the last eight.
As Liverpool have never been knocked out in a European tie in which they won the first leg away from home, PSG must overcome history and the Opta supercomputer if they are to reach the quarter-finals.
Liverpool vs PSG Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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