NCAA is set to rule on Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal: Here’s what to expect

Resolution is coming in the sign-stealing investigation that enveloped Michigan’s national championship season, spawned a Netflix documentary and made Connor Stalions a household name.

The NCAA’s Committee on Infractions is expected to issue its ruling Friday, concluding a process that began nearly two years ago. The Michigan sign-stealing scandal, like the New England Patriots “Spygate” scandal or the Houston Astros cheating scandal, became a flashpoint for the entire sport when news broke in 2023 that Stalions, then a low-level staffer at Michigan, had allegedly coordinated a scheme to collect video footage of opposing teams’ signals.

The scandal has faded from the headlines since then, but the NCAA’s lengthy infractions process means Michigan is only now learning its fate. The NCAA’s ruling is expected to include penalties for Stalions, former coach Jim Harbaugh and current coach Sherrone Moore, as well as additional penalties for the program, which was already under NCAA probation from a previous infractions case.

What are the potential penalties for Michigan?

There is little precedent for how the Committee on Infractions will rule, given the unusual nature of the allegations. Penalties could range from fines, show-cause orders and suspensions to, in the most extreme scenario, vacated wins or a postseason ban.

Moore, who was Michigan’s offensive coordinator in 2023, faces a Level II charge for deleting text messages he exchanged with Stalions before the scandal became public. Michigan has proposed suspending Moore for Michigan’s Sept. 13 game against Central Michigan and its Sept. 20 game at Nebraska, which would allow him to coach Sept. 6 against Oklahoma, his alma mater. The NCAA could accept that suspension or suspend Moore for additional games.

Harbaugh and Stalions face Level I charges, the most severe under the NCAA’s penalty structure. Stalions resigned from Michigan’s staff in 2023 and Harbaugh is now the coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, which limits the NCAA’s jurisdiction to levy punishments against either. The NCAA could issue a show-cause order that discourages college programs from hiring Stalions and add to the punishments it issued to Harbaugh last year, which included a four-year show-cause order that effectively prohibits him from returning to college football.

The NCAA could, in theory, order Michigan to vacate regular-season wins from the 2023 season and before, though that punishment is typically reserved for teams that use ineligible players. However, the NCAA doesn’t have oversight of the College Football Playoff, and president Charlie Baker is on record as saying Michigan won its 2023 national championship “fair and square.”

A postseason ban would be the worst-case scenario for a Michigan team that is ranked No. 14 in the preseason polls. Such punishments have become increasingly rare as the NCAA has moved away from sanctions that disproportionately affect players who had no role in committing the violations.

What’s the backstory?

Stalions is accused of collecting video footage of opposing teams’ signals shot from the stands by people he recruited to participate in the scheme. The allegations span dozens of games involving other Big Ten teams and potential postseason opponents in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Other teams saw the scheme as a clear-cut violation of a rule that bans in-person scouting of future opponents. However, Stalions’ lawyer has argued he didn’t violate the letter of the law because he wasn’t personally scouting the games.

The allegations came to light in October 2023, with Michigan undefeated and aiming for a national championship. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, acting on information from the NCAA, suspended Harbaugh for three games, citing violations of the league’s sportsmanship policy. Harbaugh returned to coach Michigan to victories in the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff before leaving to coach the Chargers. Petitti provided a letter to the Committee on Infractions in support of Michigan and reportedly argued that no further sanctions were needed.

The sign-stealing scandal left many loose threads and unanswered questions. The Washington Post reported in 2023 that the NCAA investigation began when an “outside investigative firm” approached the NCAA with evidence of the scheme, including schedules and budgets obtained from computer drives used by Michigan coaches. The identity of that firm has not been revealed. Michigan has also raised concerns with the NCAA about the use of an anonymous source to substantiate the NCAA’s allegations.

In addition to the Michigan case, the NCAA is investigating how Stalions gained access to the Central Michigan sideline for a game against Michigan State in 2023. Central Michigan said in a statement it is “working with the NCAA toward a negotiated resolution” and hopes to “bring our matter to a fair conclusion soon.”

Who is Connor Stalions?

Stalions, a native of Lake Orion, Mich., was a Michigan superfan who followed the Wolverines around the country and dreamed of landing a job on the coaching staff. He attended the U.S. Naval Academy, where he volunteered with the football program, and was hired at Michigan in 2022 after a stint in the Marines.

Stalions specialized in decoding signals, a practice that is not against the rules. He recently posted on social media that he knew “almost every signal” in seven games during his time at Michigan, including College Football Playoff losses to Georgia in 2021 and TCU in 2022.

Stalions became a minor celebrity as a result of the scandal, appearing in a Netflix documentary called “Sign Stealer” that premiered in 2024. His attempts to land a high school coaching job culminated with a brief stint calling plays for Belleville High School and star quarterback Bryce Underwood, who signed with Michigan as the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2025.

According to a source briefed on the hearing, Stalions was “very contrite” when he appeared in front of the NCAA Committee on Infractions in June. His lawyer, Brad Beckworth, struck a more defiant tone in 2024, describing the investigation as a “witch hunt” and calling Stalions a “scapegoat in the NCAA’s ongoing quest to show that it has a purpose in today’s sports world.”

Friday’s ruling from the NCAA will close an unprecedented two-year saga that blossomed while a defiant Harbaugh led his Wolverines on a national championship run, capturing the attention of the college football world along the way.

(Photo of Connor Stalions standing on the sideline next to Jim Harbaugh: Columbus Dispatch / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)