The Cotton Bowl is about to host another chapter of college football’s most intense rivalry. Oklahoma enters the Dallas game undefeated at 5-0, with its defense playing lights out all season. On the other hand, Texas is at 3-2, trying to save its reputation from unexpected losses and Arch Manning’s poor performance in the most valuable games.
Texas entered the 2025 season as the preseason No. 1 team in the nation with expectations and championship dreams. Now it’s October, and those dreams seem to fade after losing disappointingly to Ohio State and Florida. Brent Venables has turned Oklahoma into a defensive powerhouse this season. Their defense is playing at an elite level, and they have a solid chance to remain unbeaten as they progress into the SEC schedule.
One of the biggest questions is whether John Mateer plays. He had hand surgery two weeks ago, but he’s been upgraded to probable on the SEC availability report. Whether it’s Mateer or Michael Hawkins Jr. under center, Oklahoma’s defense gives them a real shot at the upset. “We recognize the challenge and opportunity, both to be able to go to Dallas and compete against the preseason No. 1 team in the country,” Venables said it in the press conference.
Oklahoma’s defensive line could record five-plus sacks
The most lopsided matchup on Saturday? Oklahoma’s defensive front versus Texas’s struggling offensive line. The Sooners are good with their sack numbers, with 4.2 sacks per game and 10 tackles for loss per contest. Taylor Wein has 3.5 sacks. R Mason Thomas anchors the edge, and they’ve got depth for days with Damonic Williams, Jayden Jackson, David Stone, and Gracen Halton.
Texas has major problems protecting the quarterback, especially at left guard, where they still haven’t found an answer. Florida’s defense destroyed them last week, keeping Arch Manning uncomfortable all game. Here’s the thing: Oklahoma’s defensive line is better than Florida’s, and they can rotate nine guys without any drop-off. That means fresh legs coming at Manning all afternoon.
Manning crumbles under pressure. He got overwhelmed against Ohio State, looked mediocre against UTEP, and was downright ineffective when Florida’s front got after him. Without time to operate, his decision-making disappears, and his accuracy fades. If Oklahoma replicates what Florida did, this could get ugly fast for the Longhorns. And we can see the same sack numbers that Florida had put on Stas.
Oklahoma is likely to score a defensive touchdown
Venables made a name for himself by forcing turnovers, and his defense has been aggressive all season. Texas recorded 14 explosive plays against San Jose State, but has been unable to replicate that production against ranked defenses.
The strategy seems to be a simple one; Manning panics under pressure. When defenders are in his face, he starts making throws he shouldn’t. And with Oklahoma’s pass rush all over him the entire game, he might throw some bad passes. The Sooners have players in the secondary who can catch, and they’re just waiting for the mistakes and capitalizing on them.
Field position will be critical in what should be a low-scoring defensive battle. If Oklahoma can flip the field with turnovers and give their offense short fields, they won’t need to be perfect. Getting one defensive touchdown would be huge for an offense that might be without its Heisman-caliber quarterback. This feels like the type of game where one momentum-swinging defensive score makes all the difference.
Oklahoma will control the time of possession
No matter who starts at quarterback for Oklahoma, the game plan is to run the ball, control the clock, and let the defense win. But this comes with a challenge. Both offenses have some limitations right now, and the team that executes the defense strategy well is likely to take the victory in its zone.
Oklahoma must trust the run game, even if they’re only getting 3 or 4 yards at a time. Keeping Texas’s defense on the field will benefit the Sooners. If Mateer plays, designed QB runs would give Oklahoma an extra blocker and help to balance some of Texas’s defensive speed.
Texas has struggled running the ball against quality opponents. If Oklahoma stuffs the run and forces Manning into obvious passing situations, their defensive line will feast. The Longhorns need explosive plays to score, and Oklahoma’s defense specializes in preventing exactly that. The Sooners are expected to control possession for over 35 minutes, wear down the Longhorn defense, and execute better when it matters most.
