Hatfield’s prediction: LSU’s knack for sustaining efficient offensive drives more consistently than South Carolina should give them the upper hand in Death Valley.
Photo By – Imagn Images. LSU Tigers tight end Bauer Sharp (10) during warmups before the game.
An SEC showdown is on deck as South Carolina heads to LSU.
Coming off a bye week, the Tigers will be hungry to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the season to Ole Miss. On the other side, South Carolina will be aiming to notch a statement win on the road.
My South Carolina vs. LSU predictions break it all down as I bring you my college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
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South Carolina vs LSU prediction
South Carolina vs LSU best bet: LSU -9.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Allow me to be blunt, this South Carolina Gamecocks offense isn’t good. Well at least it hasn’t shown if it is. QB Lanorris Sellers being banged up at times has been considered but even still the numbers this unit has put up are pretty ugly.
Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself. The Gamecocks rank:
75th in EPA per dropback
88th in yards per play
114th in EPA per rush
130th in average third down distance
Ultimately, these all combine together to be the decisive factor that makes LSU -9.5 my best bet, I’m projecting right at two points of value against the Vegas line.
This LSU Tigers offense hasn’t been great but it’s certainly shown more competence than the other side. The loss at Ole Miss raised questions, sure but you still have a nice set of data that supports the theory that this is a plus group.
As you’d expect, the offense has been its best through the air behind QB Garrett Nussmeier ranking just inside the top 50 nationally in EPA per dropback.
While it hasn’t been the most explosive group, it’s been efficient at staying on schedule with strong intermediate games ranking also inside the top 50 in yards per play.Sometimes it’s more complicated and sometimes it isn’t. I think this is how LSU gets the win and cover. South Carolina just hasn’t shown the ability to string multiple efficient offensive drives together and LSU has.
Expecting that to change in a hostile Tiger Stadium with the Tigers looking to bounce back from a loss seems to be wishful thinking at best.
South Carolina vs LSU same-game parlay
Two strong defenses should be reasonably well prepared for these offenses and consequently I expect the game to start out slow before opening up later.
With that in mind, I took the 1st Quarter under 9.5. I paired it with Bauer Sharp to find the end zone who looks to be the player to profit most from intermediate openings in the USC defense.
South Carolina vs LSU SGP
LSU -9.5
1Q Under 9.5
Bauer Sharp anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Fade Brown, Sellers
For the longshot parlay we took a few others.I don’t expect the explosive Barion Brown to get a ton of volume here simply because the South Carolina offense doesn’t allow a ton of explosive plays, especially through the air.
I faded him here along with LaNorris Sellers on the ground who holds a huge sack risk against a strong havoc generating defense.
South Carolina vs LSU SGP
LSU -9.5
1Q Under 9.5
Bauer Sharp anytime touchdown
Barion Brown Under 47.5 receiving yards
LaNorris Sellers Under 29.5 rushing yards
South Carolina vs LSU game predictions
South Carolina vs LSU moneyline prediction
LSU, there’s a significant difference between these two offenses.
South Carolina vs LSU spread prediction
LSU, projected -11.5 point spread here and took the Tigers to cover as my best bet with the Gamecocks offensive struggles continuing.
South Carolina vs LSU Over/Under prediction
Under, I’m pretty on the market with this number but if forced to pick, I’d roll with the Under with two strong defenses having solid matchups.
South Carolina vs LSU odds
Spread: South Carolina +8.5 (-110) | LSU -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: South Carolina +270 | LSU -335
Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
South Carolina vs LSU trend to know
South Carolina have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for South Carolina vs LSU.
How to watch South Carolina vs LSU
Location
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Date
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Kickoff
7:45 p.m. ET
TV
SEC Network
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