What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, it’s time for an intervention. The Big 12 needs to start winning playoff games. Here’s why.
The Big 12’s Glaring Playoff Problem
It used to be an Oklahoma problem. Well, the Big 12 can’t blame Oklahoma anymore.
Remember the early days of the College Football Playoff? Oklahoma was the Big 12’s dominant team. In the four-team playoff system from 2014-23, OU made the conference’s first four appearances. The Sooners went four times in five years and were shown the door in the semifinals. It wasn’t a great look for the Big 12. But the rest of the league could chuckle and say, “Well, Oklahoma is choking. But we won’t choke when WE get there.”
And, for a moment, it sure looked that way. In 2022, TCU broke the ice and got into the CFP, the first non-Oklahoma Big 12 team to do it. The Horned Frogs became the first Big 12 team to win a playoff game, defeating Michigan. The dream ended with the Horned Frogs getting blasted by Georgia in the title game. But, the Big 12 got that burden off its back.
Well, the burden is back and it’s worse. Texas lost in the semifinals in its final year in the league in 2023. Arizona State lost to Texas in overtime in the 2024 playoff. Then, Texas Tech was shut out by Oregon in the Orange Bowl earlier this week.
The Big 12 is 1-8 in the CFP. It is, by far, the worst record of any of the four power conferences. It is a massive problem the Big 12 must solve. The only way to solve it? Win. No one can explain that away.
We can’t keep having conversations about disrespecting the Big 12 if the league’s best football team gets to the big moment and looks like it doesn’t belong. Tech’s defense looked like it belonged in a Super Bowl, frankly. The offense was awful and its coaching staff failed to adjust when it was clear the Red Raiders couldn’t run the ball. Imagine going back in time to 2016 and telling Patrick Mahomes the Red Raiders would finally make the CFP and the offense would betray them. I think his head might explode.
Look, we all love to rag on the SEC and the “SEC bias” that’s out there. It does exist. I think the only people that really like the SEC are the ones that went to SEC schools, live in SEC states and do business with the SEC. But the undeniable truth is that the league wins when it matters.
In CFP history the league is 21-13 and has won six championships. Yes, I’m aware that only Alabama, Georgia and LSU have won those titles. But you can’t deny the trickle-down effect and the benefit of the doubt it creates for the league. It’s part of what drives their multiple playoff berths.
The Big 12 doesn’t get that benefit of the doubt. One can whine about access as much as they want but the Big 12 doesn’t get it as much because it doesn’t win in these moments and losses like Thursday’s only reinforce it. BYU was a great team, and I felt it had a strong CFP case. I think part of the reason it didn’t make it was not SEC bias, but Big 12 bias, one created by the league and its own failures in past CFPs. Blame OU and Texas if you like. But three of the last four losses are on current members, including TCU’s title game loss. Want respect? Win. Tech is just the latest one to fail.
This presents a significant problem for commissioner Brett Yormark. He and the rest of the conference commissioners are meeting on expanding the format and they hope to have an agreement later this month. Yormark was clear again earlier this week to The Dallas Morning News. He is in favor of a 16-team playoff with five auto bids for the Top 5 conference champions and 11 at-large bids. He was clear about that at Big 12 media days in July. So nothing’s changed.
It’s a logical argument. It’s the right argument. He talks about “winning it on the field.” That’s the right argument. But what happens when your league isn’t doing that?
SEC and Big Ten Hold the Power
The dark cloud hanging over the head of everyone is the memorandum of understanding signed last year. Yormark has, at times, minimized its importance. But, to be clear, this is what Sports Illustrated reported last year about the MOU, future expansion and the TV deal signed for the 2024 and 2025 CFP:
“In the spring of 2024, the member conferences came together to negotiate a media deal with ESPN. Prior to concluding that deal, an agreement was reached that set forth revenue sharing from the College Football Playoff to the conferences and Notre Dame,” Petitti said. “A specific decision on format was not reached. Instead, it was agreed that the Big Ten and SEC would control changes to the CFP format and the selection committee process after considering feedback from the membership. Like the revenue-share parameters, the Big Ten and SEC’s format control is set forth clearly in the agreement that all members signed.”
The Big 12 can provide feedback. But the Big Ten and the SEC can make decisions. Now, I don’t believe the Big Ten and the SEC want to do things unilaterally. I think their preference would be to work with everyone. But, with billions at stake in television revenue — and more partners who want in if the CFP expands — what would you do?
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti wants four auto bids for his league and the SEC, with two for the Big 12 and the ACC. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey seems warm to Yormark’s ideas, but he’s now facing the prospect of a third straight year without a CFP champion in his conference. That may be untenable for him.
The truth is Petitti and Sankey can do what they want to do, when it comes down to it. They could even implement a system where the Big 12 only gets one guaranteed bid. Yormark could protest but both could just say, “Why would we give you another berth? It’s not like you’re going to do anything with it?” And they would be right.
That’s the nuclear option, the option no one wants. Blow the whole thing up and re-imagine everything. I wrote last week about why that’s dangerous for the Big 12 long-term.
There is Still Time for the Big 12
We’re only in Year 2 of the expanded playoff and I don’t believe the Big 12 has much more time to solve their playoff problem. Tech’s loss magnified it — the money spent in the transfer portal, the best defense and season in school history, followed by that thud in Miami. It came a year after Arizona State pushed Texas to the brink in the quarterfinals. The hope was that Tech would build on that and it didn’t.
I’m by no means a “Big 12 vs. everybody” kind of guy. I don’t think teams in the Big 12 should be cheering for each other, if we’re being honest. But these 16 teams are tied together and need each other to come through in these big moments, if for no other reason than to bring the league more respect — and playoff berths.
We’ve seen what it’s done for the league in men’s basketball. It can do the same thing in football. But the longer the Big 12 takes to get it done, the more risk they run in not helping to direct playoff expansion and, frankly, the future of the conference. If you don’t think there isn’t another round of realignment coming in 2030, you’re kidding yourself.
Playoff success is essential to the Big 12’s survival. It’s not an option. It’s a necessity.
