TCU will face the USC Trojans in the Alamo Bowl on Tuesday, December 30th, with kickoff set for 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Horned Frogs went 8-4 in the Big 12 this season, while the Trojans finished off a 9-3 campaign, and are currently ranked No. 16 in the country. The Trojans are 6.5-point favorites coming into the game, with the over-under set at 55.5 total points.
This will be USC’s first-ever trip to the Alamo Bowl. Meantime, TCU is no stranger to this bowl game. The Horned Frogs won the Alamo Bowl in the 2015 and 2017 seasons under former coach Gary Patterson. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Related: Big 12 Bowl Games 2025–26: Schedule, Spreads, Results & Scores
Two Key Players to Watch
Ken Seals, TCU Quarterback
Seals has only attempted 14 passes during his time at TCU, but he’s been in Sonny Dykes’ system for two seasons, and now he gets a chance to showcase himself with Josh Hoover hitting the transfer portal. Seals does have experience though back to his time in the SEC with Vanderbilt. As a true freshman in 2020, he played in and started nine games. During the 2021 season, he played in eight games and started seven of them. Fast forward to 2023, and he played in nine games and started six of them. He was named the starting quarterback against Missouri to replace AJ Swann who suffered an injury. He finished the season completing 98 out of 170 passing attempts for 1,122 yards and 10 touchdowns against four interceptions.
Jayden Maiava, USC QB
USC definitely has the edge at quarterback with Hoover opting out for TCU. However, Maiava will have to get creative and learn some of the new faces he will be throwing the ball to (more on that below). But, with USC having Maiava in the lineup here, this is a game in which the Trojans should have an edge in the passing game. He finished the season with 3,431 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions, including an 8-2 ratio in the final four games of the season.
Top Storylines
Who is Catching the Ball for USC?
Wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are opting out to focus on NFL draft preparation, and tight end Lake McRee is not expected to play in the Alamo Bowl either. They comprise USC’s top three receivers, who combined for more than 2,300 yards and 19 touchdowns. Expect freshman receiver Tanook Hines, who caught 28 passes for 398 yards and two touchdowns this year to get some extra attention from quarterback Jayden Maiava.
Can TCU Take Advantage of USC Defensive Opt-Outs?
There’s also massive attrition on the defensive side of the ball for USC, as four of the five highest-graded players have opted out. They’ll be without three of their top five plays in terms of TFLs up front, top linebacker, and top two coverage players in the secondary. So while USC is loaded with talent, does it all mesh for one night vs. TCU?
Prediction: USC 48, TCU 45
Given USC’s depth and talent, they may figure some things as the game progresses, but it might take time. This provides TCU with an opportunity to take advantage in the first half. If you’re looking for a sleeper in-game pick, TCU has covered the first half spread in nine of their last 13 games, and this game sets up well for a first-half cover, at least.
TCU likes to play fast, and given the missing pieces on USC’s defense, I would anticipate an up-tempo pace for the Frogs. The Horned Frogs can use their plethora of wide receiver talent to open this game up against USC, and while I don’t love their defense, giving Seals a month to prep for this game as a veteran leans into his strengths and will allow Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs to put together a plan to put up points on USC and edge this game out in a track meet in front of what should be a favorable crowd.
However, USC did rank first in the Big Ten in forced fumbles and was 6th in interceptions. A shootout leads to one too many mistakes by TCU and seals the win for the Trojans in San Antonio.
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