Virginia has been one of the most surprising teams in the ACC this year. The team was projected closer to a 6-6 record, but they already have six wins on the year, and are looking for a seventh as they face North Carolina. Bill Belichick looks to spoil the UVA season, and here are three bold predictions on the game.
Virginia is now 6-1 on the year. After an opening win over Coastal Carolina, they gave up a late lead to NC State to fall 35-31 in a non-conference game. Since then, the Cavaliers have won five straight. It has not been easy. UVA required double overtime to defeat Florida State, and then stormed the field. The team needed overtime again, this time to defeat Louisville on the road. Last time out, Virginia made a comeback against Washington State, winning the game due to a fourth-quarter safety.
Meanwhile, North Carolina has not been good, leading to rumors of Belichick already exiting. They are now 2-4 on the year, and do not have a win in conference, or even against a power conference opponent. After being demolished by TCU to open the season, the Tar Heels defeated Charlotte and Richmond. Since then, they have lost three straight, including a 21-18 loss on the road to Cal in their last game.
Chandler Morris rebounds from a difficult showing
The Virginia offense has been solid. They are ranked tenth in the nation in points per game while sitting 35th in yards per game. The team has also been great on third downs, sitting tenth in FBS in third-down conversion percentage. The passing offense has been solid as well, ranking 49th in the nation in passing yards per game. Quarterback Chandler Morris has also been protected well this year. Virginia is eighth nationally in quarterback sack rate.
Morris has completed 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,607 yards and 11 scores. He has also been intercepted just four times this year, with three of them coming against Florida State. Morris also has four rushing touchdowns this year. He has not been great in the last two games overall. Against Louisville, he passed for just 149 yards with one touchdown. He then struggled against Washington State. Morris was just 15 for 25 for 179 yards and did not account for a touchdown. He also had a 35.7 QBR, his lowest against an FBS opponent this year.
The North Carolina defense has been bad this year. They are 88th in the nation in opponent points per game and 81st in opponent yards per game. It has been the pass defense that has struggled the most. The UNC defense is 122nd in the nation in opponent passing yards per game. Morris is going to be able to pick apart the defense on his way to 250 yards and at least two touchdowns.
Max Johnson returns to the field
The offense for North Carolina has been dreadful this season. The team is scoring just 14.2 points per game, 131st nationally. Further, they average just 260.2 yards per game, which ranks 133rd. The Tar Heels also pass on 55.1 percent of their plays, which is the 24th highest percentage. Regardless, the team is 118th in passing yards per game.
Gio Lopez has been the starting quarterback for the offense. He has passed for 597 yards this year while throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. He has a QBR of 31.2 this year, ranking him 129th. His touchdown passes have only come against Charlotte and Richmond this year. He missed the game with Clemson, giving Max Johnson his only start of the season.
Johnson has appeared in three games this year, two relief appearances due to injury and one start. In that time, he has completed 46 of 72 passes for 378 yards and two touchdowns. The Virginia defense is solid and has been great against the pass. Lopez has not been the answer this year, is turning over the ball, and is not able to move the team down the field. Johnson has only seen time due to Lopez getting hurt. In this one, he will be in the game, but not because Lopez is hurt, but because Johnson has been the better player.
The Virginia defense is dominant in a win
It is not just the passing game that is struggling for UNC. They struggle to run the ball and often abandon the run. The Tar Heels are 134th in the nation in run attempts this year while also averaging just 88 yards on the ground per game, which is 132nd nationally. The offense has also struggled on both third downs and in the red zone. UNC converts just 28.57 percent of its third-down tries, which is 128th nationally. They are also 78th in FBS in red zone scoring.
The Virginia defense has not been great, but it has been solid. They are 59th in the nation in opponent points per game and 57th in opponent yards per game. Moreover, they are one of the best in the nation on third down. UVA is 13th in the nation in opponent third-down conversions this year.
Third down alone is enough to favor the Cavaliers. North Carolina struggles to convert, while Virginia rarely allows a conversion. This will lead to plenty of punts and short fields for the Virginia offense. To make matters more difficult for Belichick and his team, Virginia is eighth in the nation in turnover margin and averages 1.8 takeaways per game. North Carolina gives the ball away 1.6 times per game this year.
Odds at the time of writing, according to FanDuel, have Virginia as a 10.5-point favorite. North Carolina also has a projected team total of 20.5 points. Virginia is not going to allow North Carolina to get over that team total, and in the process, will have ample opprotunity to run up the score. After three difficult games in a row, Virginia dominates this one, led by the defense, easily covering.
