Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart is this NFL Draft cycle’s most divisive quarterback. Some evaluators think he’s a mid-round pick, while ESPN’s Mel Kiper mocked Dart going No. 9. Kiper may have been trying to be controversial for engagement, but Dart does have an intriguing skillset and one can see how an evaluator could be drawn to him.
He’s not tall (6-foot-2), but he’s built well (225 pounds). He has good arm talent and is a legitimate big-play threat as a runner. However, he played in a simplistic spread offense and will need time to adjust to an NFL offense. In a weaker quarterback class, can Dart’s theoretical ceiling, along with his steady production, be enough to push him into the first two rounds of the draft?
The skillset
When it comes to natural throwing ability, Dart has every type of throw in his bag. He doesn’t have a rocket arm, but he has a live one, and he can complete outbreakers and move the ball downfield with ease.
He throws outbreaking routes with timing, accuracy and zip. These are defined throws on which he has a high degree of confidence before the snap that the receiver will be open. He doesn’t hesitate to make these throws if he sees off coverage and space outside.
Dart doesn’t just have a fastball. One of his best traits is his ability to throw off-speed and layer passes over defenders. The Mississippi offense is free flowing and routes aren’t precise. Receivers are looking for space and adjusting their angles. Dart does a good job of seeing what his receivers see and leading them into open spaces. Even though he’ll put touch on passes in the middle of the field, he rarely leads his receivers into big hits.
Dart’s deep accuracy is very good. Not elite, but his deep passes are pristine when he’s on. He can hit his receivers perfectly in stride down the field on deep posts and go-balls but can have stretches where he sprays the ball.
Dart has a natural ability as a creator. Sometimes, you want to see him look downfield more when he breaks the pocket (9.5 percent scramble rate) or gets pressured, but he was an effective scrambler (6.87 yards per scramble) so it’s understandable. The clip above was one of his best throws of the season. Against Duke, he was flushed out of the pocket, kept his eyes downfield, and threw a perfect deep bomb, hitting his receiver in stride.
On third-and-14, against Oklahoma, Dart broke the pocket to his right. Originally, Dart’s receiver was running a shallow across the field. As Dart broke the pocket, he threw the ball upfield instead of horizontally to lead his receiver to open space. He and his receiver were on the same page and they converted. This pass shows creativity and instincts when playing outside of structure. He won’t be able to scramble as much in the NFL, so he’ll have to look downfield more.
Dart has good size and vertical speed. Teams will have to gameplan for his ability to scramble, and he’ll be able to execute designed quarterback runs in the league. He’s twitchy in the pocket and has the strength to rip away from pass rushers. He routinely makes the first defender miss in the pocket. He’s a linear runner in the open field but has the speed to pull away from defenders.
Pocket toughness is a trait that you either have or you don’t. Rarely do quarterbacks become more willing to stand in the pocket and take hits. Dart is very willing to keep his eyes downfield and rotate into throws despite knowing he’ll take a hit. He also can generate power and maintain accuracy in muddy pockets without a big runway in front of him.
The offense
Overall, Dart’s skillset offers a lot that you can’t teach. His ceiling relative to other quarterbacks in this class is very high. However, his offense at Ole Miss doesn’t translate to the NFL. It will take time for him to learn a pro system, footwork and even how to take a snap from under center. As we’ve seen, the NFL rarely shows the necessary patience for long periods of development.
There was a free-flow feel to the Ole Miss offense. Receivers weren’t running precise timing routes, so Dart doesn’t have much experience with timing throws and syncing his feet with his progressions. Head coach Lane Kiffin is an excellent play caller and often got Dart’s first read open. There weren’t many examples of Dart getting through multiple reads on a play but that doesn’t mean he can’t eventually learn how to do it.
This third-and-14 play against Arkansas was one of the rare examples of him getting through multiple reads. Dart initially looked to his left. His slot receiver was indecisive and ran a sloppy route, showing his receivers were either undisciplined or given a lot of freedom to find open space. Dart eventually progressed to his right outside receiver and led his target to open space. You can see in the clip that Dart hops from read to read rather than hitch from read to read. Cleaning up his footwork is going to take some time.
One of the few full-field progression concepts that Ole Miss has in their offense is an air raid staple: Y-Cross. On Y-cross, Dart should be reading the fade and shoot route (bottom of the screen) simultaneously. The corner to that side was playing flat-footed and had his eyes on the shoot route. Ideally, Dart would have seen the corner’s body language and thrown the fade route. No one was deep with the corner playing the shoot route. Instead, Dart progressed to his third read but made a nice throw in the middle of the field.
Sometimes it looks like Dart determines his throws pre-snap because he often goes to the same receiver on certain concepts. For example, against Florida, early in the game, he hit his receiver on a deep post on a Mills concept (deep post with a dig route). Kiffin called the same play later in the game. This time, Florida’s defensive backs dropped deep and easily picked off the pass.
Dart has to be better against the blitz. He was sacked 9.6 percent of the time when blitzed (10 sacks overall). His numbers against the blitz are inflated by run/pass options (RPOs) counting as blitzes because defenders are moving toward the line of scrimmage to play the run. On third-and-long (7+ yards), which are true dropback situations, his EPA per dropback against the blitz is 0.05.
Here, the Duke defense showed a cover 0 blitz look with multiple defenders at the line of scrimmage. With more potential pass rushers than blockers, ideally, Dart should abort the play fake and quickly find a “hot” receiver. But he still carried out the play fake which made it easy for an unblocked defender to get to him. His slot receiver to his right found space and quickly got his eyes back to Dart but the quarterback didn’t see him.
In this clip, the defense again showed a heavy-pressure look. Ideally, Dart should look for a quick outlet and hope his receiver can break a tackle in space on third-and-long. He had a three-on-three situation to his left (bottom of the screen) but after the snap, he looked to the single receiver side but that receiver was double covered. Dart broke the pocket and found a receiver on the scramble drill, but this isn’t a reliable answer against heavy-pressure looks.
Though Dart has an intriguing skill set with a high ceiling, a sizable gap must be bridged between the offense he operated at Ole Miss and what he’ll be asked to do in the league. Ideally, Dart will get drafted to a team where he can sit, learn a playbook and clean up his footwork without live action. However, quarterbacks drafted in the first round are rarely afforded redshirt years. With Dart’s developmental gap, getting drafted in the second or third round to a team with an established starter would be the best situation. After Cam Ward, Dart could have the highest ceiling of any quarterback in the draft, and he’s only 21 years old.
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
