Want to know which Big 12 women’s basketball teams are going to make the NCAA Tournament? The WBIT or the WNIT? Miss the postseason entirely? I know.
No, seriously. I know. And it’s not a “close your eyes and touch a screw” kind of thing, either. It’s an actual data-driven approach to figuring out who’s going and who’s not.
For the past few years, I’ve been tracking trends in Big 12 basketball. That research has led me to collect data over the last eight seasons, dating back to 2015-16. That doesn’t include 2019-20, when there was no NCAA Tournament, or the 2020-21 season due to the COVID restrictions. The idea was to see if there was a formula to making the postseason. And there is.
All you have to do is count to 20, as in wins, before the Big 12 Tournament. Every team that won 20 or more games by the Big 12 Tournament in the sample made the postseason, with the vast majority ending up in the NCAA Tournament.
It starts with non-conference. Most Big 12 teams have played 12 or 13 games before Big 12 play starts on Saturday. How a team does in non-conference had a significant correlation to whether it will reach that 20-win plateau. The better the record, the better the chances. There are outliers, of course. But teams that win 10 or more games in non-conference have a far better chance of being comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field before the Big 12 Tournament because they’re able reach that 20-win plateau.
After several years of gathering this data and watching the conference, I can make this prediction with near-certainty — seven Big 12 women’s teams will make the NCAA Tournament and four others have a good shot at a non-NCAA Tournament bid. Want to know who? Read on, and as we go along, I have all kinds of outliers, fun facts and methodologies to either impress you or scare you. And don’t worry — I have all kinds of men’s data for the Big 12 openers in a couple of weeks.
Arizona — 9-2
Arizona is in a spot that can go either way. Ten is the “magic number” and here’s why. Of the 39 teams that had 10 or more wins before conference play started, all but three went to the postseason. Teams with nine or fewer wins? Nineteen of them went to the NCAAs, six went to other postseason tournaments and 26 didn’t make it.
Eight or nine wins in non-conference is a critical number. Teams that get to the NCAAs or other postseason events average 8.2 to 8.6 wins in non-conference. The 26 that didn’t average 6.9. In Big 12 play, the spread gets even bigger:
NCAAs: 12.0 league wins
Non-NCAA postseason; 9.0 league wins
No postseason: 3.8 league wins.
Teams can’t hide in conference play. Arizona made the first leg. But the data doesn’t like the Wildcats in conference play. The Wildcats share something in common with nearly all of the 26 teams that fell short. Arizona didn’t play a Top 25 team. Of the 26 teams, only two played a Top 25 team and beat one — The 2021-22 TCU Horned Frogs and the 2015-16 Iowa State Cyclones. Neither finished above .500.
Postseason: No
Arizona State — 13-0
I have really good news for head coach Molly Miller — she and the Sun Devils are a lock for the postseason. What ASU does in Big 12 play will determine which one.
I wrote earlier than 36 of 39 teams with 10 or more wins before conference play made it to some kind of postseason. Well ASU is just the eighth team in the sample to go undefeated in non-conference (three others did it this season, so keep that in mind). It’s a good harbinger. Of the previous seven, five went to the NCAA Tournament and two went to the WNIT.
Here’s the difference. The five that went to the NCAAs averaged 15.6 wins in Big 12 play. The other two averaged 7.0. Eight Big 12 wins is a fork in the road. One team — the 2016-17 West Virginia Mountaineers — went 12-0, won eight league games and reached the NCAA Tournament. The other — the 2017-18 West Virginia Mountaineers — went 12-0, then won eight league games and went to the WNIT. The difference? That 2016-17 team won the Big 12 Tournament to get the auto bid.
If the Sun Devils want to lock down an NCAA bid, the magic number is 10. No undefeated team in non-conference that won 10 or more games in Big 12 play before the Big 12 Tournament was been left out of the NCAA Tournament in this sample.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
Baylor — 11-2
The Bears haven’t missed the NCAA Tournament in the eight-season sample. In fact, Baylor has won double-digit non-conference games seven times in eight years in the sample. Their average number of Big 12 wins in those seasons is 16.0. That’s well above the league-wide average for Big 12 wins for teams that win 10 or more games in non-conference and make the NCAAs (13.5).
The one year that Baylor didn’t get to 10 or more wins in non-conference was 2022-23, when it went 9-3. Baylor went 10-8 in league play, was 19-11 before the Big 12 Tournament, lost in the quarterfinals and got in the NCAAs as a No. 7 seed. The Bears were 5-6 against ranked teams in the regular season. The resume helped them.
Baylor has room to maneuver. The average number of Big 12 wins for teams that win 10 or more non-conference games and end up in the NIT is 6.75. Baylor needs just nine wins in Big 12 play to reach 20 wins. The Bears should be much better than that.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
BYU — 11-1
The Cougars have played this game before. In 2023-24, their first season in the Big 12, they won 10 non-conference games to start the season. BYU ended up in the WNIT because it only won six league games and was 16-15 going into the Big 12 Tournament. This is how a team misses the NCAA Tournament. BYU was just below that NIT average (6.75) and just below the overall win average before the Big 12 Tournament (17.8). The Cougars squeezed in.
BYU has completed the first leg. The Cougars are 2-1 against high-majors. That’s a strong start. But this is where conference play finds you out. The Cougars have only won 10 league games in two seasons combined. No team with 20 wins before the Big 12 Tournament has missed postseason play. If BYU wants to lock it in, it must reach nine wins. BYU needs a healthy Delaney Gibb.
Postseason: Yes, WBIT or WNIT
Cincinnati — 5-7
I hate to be the bearer of bad news. But Cincinnati is not going the postseason. Teams that win seven or fewer games in non-conference average 3.2 wins in Big 12 action. There is one outlier — the 2017-18 Oklahoma Sooners.
OU started 5-6 in non-con, went 11-7 in the Big 12 and had 16 wins before the Big 12 Tournament. The Sooners slipped into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large and lost in the first round. So, I’m saying there’s a chance. That’s the template.
Historically, the team with the fewest wins before the Big 12 Tournament that got into any postseason was Kansas State in 2017-18. The Wildcats got in the WNIT with 15 wins. But they started non-conference 8-3. K-State had a good head start. Cincinnati does not.
Postseason: No
Colorado — 9-3
Like Arizona, the Buffs are on that 8-to-9 win bubble I wrote about earlier. CU’s season a year ago is instructive.
Colorado went 9-2 in non-conference and then went 9-9 in league action to finish 18-11 going into the Big 12 Tournament. The Buffs ended up in the WBIT. CU was right at the non-conference average for teams that win fewer than 10 but make some kind of postseason (8.6) and right on the conference win average for the same sample (9.0). The combined 18 wins was just above the sample average (17.6).
Last year’s team was 0-1 against power conference teams and 0-1 against Top 25 teams. This year? The Buffs are 0-2 against power conference teams and 0-1 against the Top 25. If Colorado can go 11-7 and get to 20 wins, then it’s probably in the NCAA Tournament. Those are the margins the Buffs are looking at.
Postseason: Yes, WBIT or WNIT
Houston — 6-5
The Cougars are in only slightly better shape than the Bearcats. But the same rules apply for Houston as Cincinnati. The Cougars will need nine league wins to get to the 15 wins that helped Kansas State get into the WNIT in 2017-18 and they’ll need 14 league wins to get to the 20 that would practically guarantee the Cougars a postseason berth.
Also working against Houston is that it hasn’t played a single high-major team. So, all five losses have come to mid-majors — Rice, Stephen F. Austin, Arkansas State, Southern and New Mexico. The fact that Southern beat both Houston and Arizona is another reason I’m cool on the Wildcats making the postseason.
Postseason: No
Iowa State — 12-0
I’m really curious to see what Kansas has in the toolbox to slow down center Audi Crooks in their Big 12 opener. No one else seems to know what to do.
Remember all that stuff I wrote about Arizona State? Same applies here. Being undefeated going into Big 12 action is basically a golden ticket to the postseason.
It’s instructive to know that Iowa State hasn’t won 10 or more games in non-conference each of the last three seasons and still make the NCAA Tournament. Why? Because the Cyclones won at least 11 league games in each of those seasons. That’s part of the formula when you can’t get to 10 wins before Big 12 play — it must be made up in league play. That’s why a 12-0 record is such a boon. The Cyclones have wiggle room — if they need it. The data says they won’t.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
Kansas — 10-2
The Jayhawks got to 10 wins on Wednesday after beating NAIA Haskell Indian Nations University. That put Kansas in the 10-win category. Per the data, Kansas now has a 92.3% chance of making some kind of postseason action. But I’m not prepared to say they’re in. Why? Because the Jayhawks have won 10 games in non-conference twice and missed the postseason.
Last season, KU started 10-1, went 6-12 in league play and was 16-13 before the Big 12 Tournament. In 2018-19, KU went 1-0 in non-con, 4-14 in Big 12 and was 14-17 before conference play.
Remember — 10 wins or more is a near certainty, not a guarantee (unless you’re undefeated). Does Kansas’ 3-1 record against power conference teams help? Well, KU did the same thing last year. It also did the same thing in 2018-19.
The data likes Kansas. The trend lines don’t. But let’s stick to the data.
Postseason: Yes, WBIT or WNIT
Kansas State — 7-6
There is no Big 12 team that is more outlier-y than Kansas State. Twice in the sample K-State got to 10 wins before non-conference, failed to get to 20 wins before the start of the Big 12 Tournament but still made the NCAA Tournament. In 2022-23, the Wildcats started the season 11-2, won just five league games and had 16 wins before the Big 12 Tournament and slipped into the WNIT.
The Wildcats tend to upend the formula. The data says teams with seven or fewer wins in non-conference average 3.2 league wins and have 8.9 wins before the Big 12 Tournament. There are exceptions.
Both Iowa State and Kansas won seven games in non-conference two years ago and made the NCAA Tournament. ISU won 12 league games and KU won 11. Those two teams are the only two that have done it. So, it’s an uphill climb for Kansas State. Seven is the fewest non-conference wins K-State has had in the eight-season sample.
Postseason: No
Oklahoma State — 11-2
Playing a lot of games early paid off for the Cowgirls, who have wiggle room when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. Based on the data, nine wins in Big 12 play should do it. But, teams with 10 or more wins average 13.5 league wins. So, OSU is well positioned.
In head coach Jacie Hoyt’s first three seasons, the Cowgirls have won 10 games in non-con twice and made the NCAA Tournament both seasons. In fact, OSU had at least 20 wins before the Big 12 Tournament in both seasons. The other year? OSU had seven non-con wins and won just seven games in league action. No postseason that year.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
TCU — 12-0
The Horned Frogs are the third of our four undefeated teams. As a reminder — every team undefeated in non-conference in the sample either made the NCAA Tournament or the WBIT/WNIT. TCU needs at least eight wins to get to 20 before the Big 12 Tournament. Last season the Horned Frogs won 16 league games. Barring a major injury they appear poised to duplicate it.
The average for the five undefeated teams that made the NCAA Tournament with an undefeated non-conference is 14.0. The data tilts heavily toward the Horned Frogs. As a reminder — TCU went 13-0 in 2023-24, went 6-12 in Big 12 play and ended up in the WNIT. That team had to forfeit two games due to a lack of players. Shows you what craziness must happen to upend the data.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
Texas Tech — 13-0
In each of the last three seasons, the Lady Raiders have entered non-conference with 10 or more wins. The Lady Raiders have failed to reach the NCAA Tournament in any of those years (WBIT, WNIT and no postseason). Texas Tech is the only team to do that in three straight seasons. Heck, TTU is the only school to do that in three seasons in the eight-year sample. Incredible.
But, Texas Tech is undefeated this year and that changes the formula. Remember — no undefeated team in non-con has missed the postseason and the percentages tilt toward the Big Dance. A note to remember. The two non-NCAA teams finished under-.500 in Big 12 play. The Lady Raiders need to hit at least nine before the Big 12 Tournament.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
UCF — 8-3
We’ve been through this with the eight- and nine-win teams in the data pool, so we won’t dive too deep into it. What is telling is UCF’s short history in the Big 12. The Knights went 9-1 in 2023-24 and won just three league games. Last season, UCF went 7-3 and won four league games. That sort of incremental improvement in Big 12 play won’t work.
UCF’s only high-major game was a loss to Wake Forest. Teams that successfully reach the postseason tend to win a high-major game in non-con. Strangely, UCF was 3-0 against high majors in non-con the past two seasons. But it led to no postseason berth. The trend has the Knights missing for a third year.
Postseason: No
Utah — 9-3
Nine wins before non-conference puts the Utes in better position for the postseason than eight wins, historically speaking. Utah went 9-2 in non-con last year, with a 2-2 record against power conference opponents and a 1-0 record against Top 25 teams. Utah ended up 13-5 in league play and was 22-7 going into the Big 12 Tournament. Utah was comfortably in the NCAA Tournament at that point.
This non-conference Utah is 1-3 against high major teams and 0-2 against ranked teams. By that metric, Utah should make the postseason, but not the NCAA.
Postseason: Yes, WBIT or WNIT
West Virginia — 10-2
The Mountaineers are in the 10-win category for their third straight season under coach Mark Kellogg. The last two years they’ve finished 11-0 and 10-1 in non-con. WVU has followed that with at least 12 wins in Big 12 action.
West Virginia is 2-2 against power conference teams and 1-0 against a ranked team (Duke). WVU has reached the NCAA Tournament both ways under Kellogg — with and without a ranked win. The metrics support the Mountaineers making the NCAA Tournament again.
Postseason: Yes, NCAA
