The 2025 NBA playoffs are about to get underway, and individual talent on defense may play a bigger role in determining the champion than regular-season team defensive performance. That’s particularly true in the Eastern Conference.
The Sacramento Kings made a bold move in acquiring Zach LaVine before the NBA trade deadline, pairing him with DeMar DeRozan after the duo failed to win a playoff series during their tenure together with the Chicago Bulls.
There were a lot of concerns about pairing LaVine and DeRozan – two below-average perimeter defenders – and the pair did have its struggles initially. But the Kings looked a bit better as the season went on and seemed to be heading in the right direction.
Then came the NBA Play-in Tournament.
It was only a one-game sample, but the Kings defense couldn’t hold up to the scrutiny of a postseason environment. The Dallas Mavericks, who were just 23rd in offensive efficiency after Luka Doncic played his last game for the team on Dec. 25, lit up the Kings with a 120-106 win. Dallas shot 49.4% from the field and 50.0% on 3-pointers.
This game was indicative of one of the differences in regular-season and postseason basketball. Sacramento was a bad defensive team during the regular season, and it was the type of team that gets even worse defensively in the playoffs because of LaVine and DeRozan. When a team focuses on taking away what an opponent does well, individual player flaws are magnified, and it becomes much harder to rely on scheme and effort.
Everyone already knows this about offense. It’s generally accepted that it becomes harder to play non-shooters together in the playoffs. If two or more players aren’t offensive threats on the perimeter, it gives the defense too many places from which to send help. No matter coaching creativity, it’s almost impossible to mask multiple offensive non-factors.
But what if this is true on the defensive end as well? Defense is considered the part of the game where team play matters more than individual performance, and that may be true. However, offenses are more dangerous than ever and better at needling the weak links in a defensive scheme. Most teams have to try to get by with one subpar defensive player on the court.
Could adding a second weak defender risk the same untenable effects of a duo of bad offensive players for teams in the 2025 NBA playoffs?
Two Bad is Too Many
To test the theory of whether offensive evolution has made playing bad defenders in the playoffs untenable, we looked at every playoff team in the last two seasons and sorted them by the two defenders in their starting lineup (using the most-common five starters during the playoffs) with the lowest Defensive DRIP going into the playoffs. DRIP is our catch-all metric that projects how good a player is on offense and defense at a given time, so it’s useful in determining how a player could be projected going into the playoffs.
We’re using -0.4 D-DRIP as the cutoff for a subpar defender. That number gives us approximately the bottom 40% of defenders in the league this season. Starters on playoff teams that are below this number can be considered defensive liabilities who opponents might target, so we’re looking for any team that had two starters with -0.4 D-DRIP or lower and seeing how well it did in the playoffs.
The numbers are staggering. Sixteen of the 32 playoff teams over the last two years meet this criterion. Of those 16, 11 lost in the first round and only one advanced past the second round.
One could assume this is because teams with bad individual defenders were also bad defensive teams in the regular season, but that wasn’t always the case. Six of the teams that fit this criterion were ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency, including the 2022-23 Cleveland Cavaliers, who ranked first in defensive efficiency, but lost in the first round as the No. 4 seed in the East.
Modern offenses are designed to target weaker defenders in a variety of ways. It can be as simple as the lead ball handler involving a weak defender in a ball screen, but it doesn’t always have to be on the ball. Look at the very first play from Dallas and Sacramento’s play-in game.
LaVine is late getting around a pin down screen for Klay Thompson and he’s already put his team at a significant disadvantage before Thompson touches the ball. Sabonis has to contain the drive, and that gives Dallas center Dereck Lively II an easy layup.
The one team that was able to advance past the second round with two subpar defenders is a notable exception. The Denver Nuggets started Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., but still managed to win the NBA championship in 2023. It’s pretty simple: To overcome a lineup with subpar defenders, simply have one of the best offensive players in NBA history in his prime leading the charge on the other end (yeah, thank you, Nikola Jokic).
Teams That Fit The Bill
There are significantly fewer teams facing this issue in the 2025 NBA playoffs than in the past two seasons. Perhaps general managers have gotten the memo and spent more focus on acquiring players with passable individual defensive talent or perhaps it’s just a fluke.
The Western Conference had three teams that met the criteria last season, but the Nuggets got defensive improvement from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., the Los Angeles Lakers got rid of D’Angelo Russell, and the New Orleans Pelicans failed to qualify for the postseason.
But, after the final Eastern Conference playoff spot is settled with Friday night’s play-in, there will still be three examples of teams in the East that will have to try to manage starting multiple defensive liabilities.
Miami Heat/Atlanta Hawks
The Sacramento Kings weren’t the only play-in team that fit the criterion. The winner of the Heat at Hawks matchup will have this same issue going into the playoffs.
Trae Young has the worst D-DRIP of any projected starter left in the postseason and Tyler Herro isn’t far behind.
Young is joined on the Hawks by rookie Zaccharie Risacher as a subpar defender. Risacher has had a solid rookie season, but, like most rookies, has had his struggles on the defensive end. Dyson Daniels might have to generate a steal every time down the court for Atlanta to get enough stops.
For the Heat, Andrew Wiggins is considered a subpar defender by DRIP, although it’s possible he’s regained his form after dealing with a few different injuries during the season. Wiggins looked better defensively in the play-in victory against the Bulls.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are the feel-good story of the season, but they also might be the poster children for this exercise.
Detroit finished the regular season ranked 10th in defensive efficiency, but both Cade Cunningham and Tim Hardaway Jr. are players whom opponents will target. Malik Beasley will play a lot because of his tremendous shooting season, but he’s an even worse defender than Hardaway Jr. So is Simone Fontecchio.
Ronald Holland II has had a good defensive season for a rookie, but playing Ausar Thompson and Holland together for long stretches would cause massive issues on the offensive end.
Thompson is an absurdly good defender, but it’s going to be hard for him to cover for teammates in the playoffs.
Cleveland Cavaliers
This is the only realistic contender on the list this year and is something to watch for this postseason.
A lot is made about the efficacy of an Evan Mobley-Jarett Allen frontcourt. While there has been some discussion about the lack of size in the backcourt, it hasn’t been highlighted enough as a reason the Cavaliers haven’t had success in the playoffs.
Cleveland’s playoff defensive rating was fine last season, but that’s misleading because in the first round, they played the Orlando Magic, a team that finished 23rd in offensive efficiency during the regular season. In the second round, Cleveland had a defensive rating of 118.7 in five games against the eventual champion Boston Celtics.
It should be noted Donovan Mitchell only played the first three games of that series, but it’s not the defense that was hurt when he was off the floor. The Celtics had their choice of targeting Mitchell, Darius Garland and Max Strus when they were on the floor and took advantage often.
De’Andre Hunter was acquired in February, but he’s been worse than all those options, according to DRIP. Like Wiggins, Hunter had to work his way back from injury this season and has looked stronger the further he gets from his right knee inflammation, so it’s possible he’s a better defender than he’s credited by DRIP.
There are reasons to think the Cavaliers might not be as vulnerable as they have been in years past to the targeting of their starters. Max Strus and Darius Garland have both made subtle but significant improvements to their defense. Strus actually rates a slightly positive defender this season (0.2 D-DRIP) while Garland has improved from -0.7 to -0.4, which is the difference between a well-below average defender and a below-average one.
Garland and Mitchell are both at -0.4 D-DRIP, so the Cavaliers barely qualified for this list. Every playoff team that qualified for this list in the past two years had at least one defender at -0.6 or worse, giving them at least one player who was worse than Mitchell or Garland. And Mitchell has shown in the past that he’s capable of a higher defensive ceiling; he’s just never been able to hit that ceiling consistently.
Perhaps now, while Garland is on the most complete team of his career, he’ll be able to focus on the defensive side more than ever. Still, teams are going to try to target him, Mitchell and Strus. It’s the only crack in the formidable Cavaliers’ defense.
The degree of defensive improvement by Cleveland’s perimeter players from last year’s playoffs to this one will likely go a long way toward deciding whether they are true title contenders or another victim of having too many subpar defenders in key roles.
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