2025 NFL midseason predictions: Playoff races, MVP, Super Bowl

Thursday night’s Raiders-Broncos game kicked off Week 10, which means we’re officially past the midway point of the 2025 NFL season. After nine full weeks, the Colts, Patriots and Broncos were surprisingly tied for the best record in the AFC, though Denver’s win Thursday put it ahead. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers, Eagles and Seahawks lead the NFC. But a lot can happen over the next two months.

So, we asked 15 of our NFL analysts for their best second-half prediction. Which teams will win their divisions and go far in the playoffs? Which might make the Super Bowl? Who’s making a strong case for one of the league’s annual awards? Could we see a record get broken? And how might this all impact the 2026 NFL draft order?

Let’s predict the second half of the season, starting with some divisional race calls.

Jump to:AFC | NFC | Award winnersRecord-breakers | NFL draft

How will the AFC races play out?

The Denver Broncos will win the AFC West

Led by their fierce defense, the Broncos will end the Chiefs’ stranglehold on the AFC West. Kansas City has won nine consecutive division championships — including seven straight since Patrick Mahomes became the team’s starting quarterback. The Patriots hold the NFL record for the most consecutive division titles, winning 11 straight AFC East championships from 2009 to 2019. — Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer

The Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC West

They’re 2½ games behind the Broncos, but they still play them twice. It was a poor performance by Mahomes in Sunday’s loss to the Bills (he completed only 15 of 34 passes), but the Chiefs will improve once offensive tackle Josh Simmons returns and wide receiver Rashee Rice gets even more comfortable in the offense. Although Denver is playing well on defense, its offense is struggling. The Chargers are in the mix for the AFC West title, but they have too many key injuries to overcome down the stretch. — Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

The Baltimore Ravens will win the AFC North

Despite a 1-5 start, the Ravens find themselves in a reasonable spot to jet back to the top of a division that will almost assuredly come down to them or the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense made a statement in its Week 9 victory over Indianapolis, but I’m not fully sold that it can keep it up weekly going forward. Baltimore’s margin for error is extremely narrow, but with two games against Pittsburgh and four matchups against teams that are currently at or below .500, I’m expecting a surge. — Field Yates, NFL analyst

The Buffalo Bills will lose the AFC East

Buffalo is the odds-on favorite to win the division at -165 (ESPN BET), while New England sits at +135 — despite the Patriots actually leading in the standings. That’s telling you the market is expecting regression in Buffalo’s favor. But the Bills won 13 games last season with historic turnover luck and elite injury fortune. Both are already normalizing. Plus, Buffalo still has five games left against teams coming off more rest. The Bills also have tough road stints coming up at Houston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and New England. They can be great and still fall short of great expectations. — Pamela Maldonado, NFL betting analyst

What about the NFC?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will reach the Super Bowl

This is the quietest 6-2 team ever. The Bucs have been riddled with injuries on a level not far removed from the 49ers, yet they fly under the radar. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was playing like a leading MVP candidate as recently as three weeks ago, despite not having a healthy offensive line and receiver corps all season. He has been without starting running back Bucky Irving for a month (foot sprain, shoulder subluxation), too. The Bucs are fifth in defensive efficiency and fifth in defensive EPA, and they’re in the top half of the league in the offensive versions of those categories.

This team should have no trouble winning a fifth straight AFC South title. And after the Bucs get healthier, they’ll be as formidable as anyone. — Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter

The Los Angeles Rams will reach the Super Bowl

Quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams have flown somewhat under the radar in the first half of the season, but at 6-2, they are primed to make a run down the stretch. Stafford not only has notable chemistry with wide receiver Puka Nacua, but he has also established a connection with Davante Adams that appears unstoppable. Stafford and Adams have connected on five touchdowns in the past two games alone. — Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter

play

Orlovsky: Matthew Stafford is NFL’s best thrower right now

Dan Orlovsky and Will Compton discuss quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ passing game.

Who will win awards?

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will win MVP

With four touchdown passes against the Saints, Stafford joined Tom Brady (2007, 2015), Patrick Mahomes (2020) and Aaron Rodgers (2020) as the only QBs with at least 20 touchdown passes and no more than two interceptions in their team’s first eight games, per ESPN Research. Brady and Rodgers won the MVP in 2007 and 2020, respectively. — Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst

I agree with Orlovsky here. It’s amazing that Stafford has never finished better than eighth in the MVP voting. He has inside-the-industry street cred but maybe lacks the public esteem of his counterparts. Yet, this is shaping up to be an undeniable season for the 17-year pro. He is on pace for 4,500-plus yards, leading a Rams offense that’s too multifaceted to cause a lengthy lull in his play. Los Angeles can win with the run or the pass. The NFC race is wide open. This feels like his time. — Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will win Offensive Player of the Year

Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 118.5 receiving yards per game, and the volume remains consistent in Klint Kubiak’s offense (10.0 targets per game). A savvy route runner who plays much faster than his timed speed, Smith-Njigba can uncover at all three levels of the field. And he’s doing that at an extremely high rate. Yes, he will likely need a bump in touchdown production (four this season) to stay in the OPOY discussion with Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (14 touchdowns), but he’ll maintain the high receiving numbers to make a push over the second half of the season. — Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

New ESPN and NFL+ Premium Bundle

Bundle ESPN and NFL+ Premium and unlock more NFL content at a great price.Get all of ESPN’s Monday Night Football, NFL Primetime and more. Sign Up Now

Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett will win Defensive Player of the Year

Garrett has an exceptional track record, including eight consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks. But he has never led the league in sacks over a single season. In fact, when he won Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, he tied for seventh. So, he doesn’t need to be the sack leader to win his second DPOY award — but he is well on his way with 10.0 already this season.

It’s even more impressive that he’s producing at this level on one of the worst teams in the league, as it’s harder to get sacks when playing from behind. And the advanced metrics are just as good as always: Garrett ranks fourth in pass rush win rate and eighth in run stop win rate among edge rushers. — Seth Walder, NFL analyst

Colts’ Shane Steichen will win Coach of the Year

The Giants could not get rid of quarterback Daniel Jones fast enough, yet Steichen (+160 odds for the award) hitched his wagon to Jones over Anthony Richardson Sr. The Colts have the No. 1 scoring offense (32.2 points per game), and Jones has a 70% completion percentage as a front-runner for Comeback Player of the Year. I predict the Colts win their division, finish with at least 12 wins and host at least one playoff game. With the acquisition of cornerback Sauce Gardner, it’s not too wild to think Indy can win the AFC championship (+475 odds) and the Super Bowl (+1100). I’m here for it! #IndianaJones. — Anita Marks, sports betting and fantasy football analyst

Patriots’ Mike Vrabel will win Coach of the Year

In his first season as head coach of the team that made him a household name as a player, Vrabel has the Patriots competing for an AFC East title despite still developing a young roster that’s led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye. As the top team in its division with a 7-2 record, New England was comfortable enough to trade defensive end Keion White and safety Kyle Dugger at the deadline for draft compensation. Turning around the Patriots in a hurry will get Vrabel a well-deserved postseason award. — Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst

play

Why Will Compton is backing Drake Maye for NFL MVP

Will Compton explains why he believes Drake Maye will be named MVP and why his stats stack up with Aaron Rodgers’, Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s.

Which records could be broken?

Christian McCaffrey will break Marshall Faulk’s single-season record for receiving yards by a running back

Faulk had 1,048 receiving yards for the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in 1999. McCaffrey currently has 626 receiving yards, which prorates to 1,182 yards for a full 17-game season. With all the injuries in San Francisco, McCaffrey has somehow become an even bigger part of that offense. He is averaging a career-best 10.3 yards per reception, and though that will probably drop, the volume probably won’t.

The 49ers could be fighting for playoff position until the final week, so I don’t expect McCaffrey to take a week off. He is recording 69.6 receiving yards per game, and averaging 55.0 the rest of the way passes the record with room to spare. — Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst

Jaguars kicker Cam Little’s 68-yard field goal record won’t stick for long

Somebody — and it could be Little, since he already did it in the preseason — will make a 70-yarder and break his record from last Sunday. The change to the kickoff (touchback at the 35-yard line, increase in kickoff returns) and the fact that kickers are improving at hitting distance mean that offenses have a shorter field than ever before.

And this season, the new “K-ball” rules have kickers feeling more confident because they can practice with the footballs they will use in games and have more time to break them in. Bengals kicker Evan McPherson told me that he feels like he can get close to 10 more yards on kicks because the balls are more “jumpy.” Kickers are about to become even more important. — Kalyn Kahler, senior NFL reporter

Breaking news from Adam Schefter

Download the ESPN app and enable Adam Schefter’s news alerts to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here.

What could happen in the 2026 NFL draft?

The Atlanta Falcons’ first-round pick will become another top-eight selection … for the Rams

The Falcons had a four-year streak of drafting in the top eight picks from 2021 to 2024 — and they’re close to restarting that trend. Atlanta has lost three straight and faces the Colts and Panthers in its next two games. The Colts are obviously a tough beat, and the Panthers won their past two against the Falcons. If the Falcons fall to 3-7, I’m not sure their brass can pull the team out of a tailspin, especially with a young offense that lacks veteran presence. Atlanta still has two games against the Saints and a matchup with the Jets, so ending up with a top-eight pick would truly be a disaster.

Of course, the pick won’t actually be the Falcons’ to use, as they gave it to the Rams in the trade up for edge rusher James Pearce Jr. last April. — Ben Solak, NFL analyst