Ben Solak
Seth Walder
Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics
Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
There are always a few standout NFL players who should make the Pro Bowl but aren’t named to the initial AFC and NFC rosters. Of course, many of those snubs do end up getting in as replacements for injured or Super Bowl-bound players, but there are always questions when the first rosters are announced. And after the rosters for the 2026 Pro Bowl (Feb. 3, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN) were unveiled Tuesday morning, we do have a few questions.
NFL analysts Ben Solak and Seth Walder picked out a handful of standout players who might be disappointed to not make the AFC or NFC teams. And in selecting these snubs, Solak and Walder broke them out into two categories:
And because there are only so many spots on these rosters, we’re also selecting one player for each of the suggested snubs to replace. It’s only fair. Let’s dive in, starting with an NFC quarterback.
Jump to a section:Absolutely should be inProbably could be in
Players who absolutely should be in
Who he should replace: Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Why he should be in: Love is a victim of #QBWinz, but this really isn’t close: He should easily be in over Darnold, despite fewer team wins. Love’s 72.8 QBR ranks third in the NFL while Darnold trails way behind at 60.8 (12th). Both have been accurate passers, and Darnold is getting roughly a yard more per dropback than Love. But there’s one area that swings massively toward Love — turnovers. Love has eight on the season while Darnold has 18, two more than any other quarterback this season! If only Love thought to play with an elite defense, he would have made the Pro Bowl. — Walder
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Who he should replace: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Why he should be in: Olave is top 10 in all the volume stats — fifth in targets, sixth in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, eighth in receiving touchdowns — while still boasting solid efficiency. He has done this without much help at receiver alongside him (he’s eighth in his team’s receiving yardage share and fourth in air yards share) and with a midseason quarterback change. St. Brown has similar production, but he has been to this dance before and is having an average season as opposed to Olave’s outstanding one. I’d give it to Olave. — Solak
Who he should replace: Jalen Carter, DT, Philadelphia Eagles
Why he should be in: Turner leads NFC interior defenders with 34 total pass rush wins and ranks third in NFL behind Pro Bowlers Chris Jones and Jeffery Simmons. Turner also has 7.0 sacks and a run stop win rate that is a hair above average. That’s a far superior résumé to Carter, who played in only 10 games, has 2.0 sacks and a worse pass rush win rate than Turner. — Walder
Who he should replace: Roquan Smith, LB, Baltimore Ravens
Why he should be in: Brooks should be the leading vote getter for All-Pro linebacker consideration; he has been the NFL’s best linebacker this season, full stop. Brooks is a high-volume tackler on a porous Dolphins defense, and he still creates stops at or near the line of scrimmage. His 5.6% stuff rate leads all high-volume linebackers this season, as does his minus-45.0 run stop EPA. Brooks remains a high-impact coverage linebacker who denies middle-of-the-field targets that other linebackers allow.
I would have voted him in over Roquan Smith, Azeez Al-Shaair, Brian Urlacher, Ray Lewis, Jack Lambert, even my own kid. — Solak
Who he should replace: Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Why he should be in: The Pro Bowl did well this year to acknowledge the great seasons of Devon Witherspoon, Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence but missed one key Seahawk: Jones. He is coming off his worst game of the season after getting yanked around by Matthew Stafford, but he has been a high-impact playmaker in coverage for a Seattle defense that asks more of him than the average scheme. He’s a slippery run defender who often closes multiple gaps while playing cat-and-mouse with ball carriers. Snap for snap, he has done a little bit more than Baun this season. — Solak
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Who he should replace: Trent Williams, OT, San Francisco 49ers
Why he should be in: If Joe Alt can make the Pro Bowl despite playing only six games, I don’t particularly understand how the best tackle in football didn’t make the Pro Bowl with 10 games played. Johnson is an unparalleled talent at right tackle who should have been in over all three NFC tackles so long as his health absence was not disqualifying. — Solak
Who he should replace: T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Why he should be in: Watt continues to get Pro Bowl nods based on his name and lifetime achievements, but he has a 9.8% pressure rate this season — that’s fourth among edge rushers on his own team. Of course, he gets chipped more and remains a splash player against the run, but Hines-Allen has as many sacks (7) as Watt with a much-higher pressure rate (15.0%). It’s okay to say Watt is a good player and give Pro Bowl acknowledgement to guys with more juice. — Solak
Who he should replace: Patrick Ricard, FB, Baltimore Ravens
Why he should be in: Permit me a moment of fullback talk. Ingold has played 304 snaps this season and is a featured part of the Dolphins’ revitalized rushing attack. Without him, we’d never have the De’Von Achane career season we’re currently enjoying. Ricard, who missed the first six weeks of the season, has not had nearly the same boosting effect on the Ravens’ rushing attack, which has been generally less effective than Miami’s unit. The decision here would be easy if not for the fact that they’re fullbacks, and there are literally zero stats to isolate their individual and intrinsic value. — Solak
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Who he should replace: Tress Way, P, Washington Commanders
Why he should be in: It has been a generally down season for punting. Punters are calibrating to the new K-balls and coverage units have spent less time practicing punt coverage (spending more time solving the new kickoff). That said, I’d prefer to give the nod to Wright, who has dropped 10 punts inside the 10-yard line this season and a whopping four inside the 5, with only one touchback on 54 attempts. — Solak
Players who probably could be in
Who he could replace: Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers
Why he could be in: Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Alt! He was on pace to be Protector of the Year if he had stayed healthy! But he played only six games, which is in no way enough to make a Pro Bowl. I’d be open to multiple tackles at this spot, but Stanley ranks fifth in pass block win rate and 13th in run block win rate. So metrics-wise, he looks like the most deserving next man up in the AFC after Dion Dawkins and Garett Bolles. — Walder
Who he could replace: Joe Thuney, G, Chicago Bears
Why he could be in: There are four really good guards in the NFC this season but only three spots to go around. Dotson is the primary force behind the Rams’ historically consistent running game, as Los Angeles’ best runs are often wrenched open by Dotson’s strength at the first level and his ability to bring that power behind his explosiveness into the second level. It’s hard to knock either Chris Lindstrom or Thuney out of Pro Bowl consideration, but it would be defensible in order to get Dotson in. — Solak
Who he could replace: Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs
Why he could be in: Seumalo’s blocking metrics are exceptional this season. He ranks second in pass block win rate and fifth in run block win rate at guard, respectively. And get this … he hasn’t been flagged for a single penalty all season! Seumalo has played a key role in keeping Aaron Rodgers upright this season. — Walder
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Who he could replace: Byron Young, OLB, Los Angeles Rams
Why he could be in: A Young-for-Young swap would be defensible depending on which way you slice the arguments. Byron Young is without question the better run defender. Chase Young plays an upfield game that takes him out of run defense, while Byron is one of the more impactful edge rushers behind the line of scrimmage. But Chase has one of the fastest get-offs, time-to-pressure and quick pressure rates of all NFL pass rushers, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He is also the lone high-impact player in the Saints’ pass rush portfolio. Both Youngs deserve a nod. — Solak
Who he could replace: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Why he could be in: Warren and Kelce are close in production. Kelce narrowly has the edge in receiving yards (803 compared to 748), but Warren has a slightly higher yards per route run (1.80 to 1.75). But they had significantly different quarterback situations. For as much as Daniel Jones exceeded expectations in Indianapolis this season, he’s still nowhere close to Patrick Mahomes. And while Warren’s production has dipped lately, when the Colts’ offense was humming earlier this season, the rookie tight end was a huge part of that success. I give him the edge over the veteran. — Walder
Who he could replace: Jaycee Horn, CB, Carolina Panthers
Why he could be in: It is extremely challenging to talk about Wright, who probably isn’t one of the four best cornerbacks in the NFC but has had such a turnover-rich season that it is impossible to ignore him. Wright has five interceptions and three fumble recoveries on a defense that has desperately needed takeaways to stay afloat, and his emergence saved the Bears during Jaylon Johnson’s injury absence. Wright deserves a Pro Bowl nod for his incredible peak season — even if it knocks Horn, another great corner, out of the picture. — Solak
