Fantasy football matchup rankings – Best, worst by each position in Week 3

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know who to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

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The matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2024 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.

Adjusted fantasy points allowed (Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable. A negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Dallas Cowboys). Considering the challenges his first two matchups presented — a prime-time game against the Minnesota Vikings and a much-ballyhooed meeting with the Detroit Lions — Williams’ 41.18 fantasy points were plenty good start. Under Ben Johnson’s tutelage, Williams has reversed his 2024 trend of slow starts to games, going from one of the worst to the league’s best first-quarter quarterback (going by Total QBR), and he has shown good mobility with 14.5 of those points on rushing plays. It’s a nice foundation as Williams draws one of his most favorable matchups in Week 3. The opposing Cowboys bring little in the way of pass rush (20th-ranked pass rush win rate) and have struggled mightily to defend the deep ball (315 yards and three touchdowns on throws at least 20 yards downfield, both NFL worsts).

Others to like:

Matchup to avoid: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Denver Broncos). The Chargers have made him a bigger part of their game plan, and for the first time in his career, he has passed for multiple touchdowns without an interception while also rushing for at least 30 yards in back-to-back games. Herbert’s fantasy stock is on the rise, but this is a week to fade him. The Broncos, despite their Week 2 stinker in Indianapolis, have still held opposing quarterbacks to the third-lowest completion percentage (56.5%), third-worst Total QBR (41.7) and seventh-worst rate of passing yards per dropback (5.2). They entered 2025 regarded one of the toughest defenses against the pass, and one bad week against Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts shouldn’t dramatically change that.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@LAC

1

-0.8 @CHI

32

2.6NO

2

-0.4 @BUF

31

-2.1@CLE

3

-2.2 @SEA

30

-0.6CIN

4

-1.2 @MIN

29

1.7LAR

5

-2.5 NYJ

28

3.1@JAX

6

0.5 PIT

27

-0.4@TEN

7

1.4 @NYG

26

-0.2LV

8

-1.3 DET

25

0.1@BAL

9

1.1 ATL

24

3.5@SF

10

-0.5 HOU

23

4.2KC

11

-1.1 MIA

22

-0.4GB

12

-0.7 @WSH

21

0.7@TB

13

-0.2 DAL

20

-3.4DEN

14

-0.7 @NE

19

-3.2IND

15

-0.2 @CAR

18

2.9@PHI

16

0.6 ARI

17

-0.6

Running backs

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Matchups highlight: Javonte Williams, Cowboys (at Bears). He’s off to a stunning start, with 45.4 fantasy points (third among RBs) as well as 31 rushing yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats, while playing 75% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps. Williams did so in part by capitalizing upon an extremely favorable Week 2 matchup against the New York Giants, and this week is similarly soft against a Bears defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position (57.2). The Bears surrendered 52 points and 511 total yards to the Lions in Week 2, and they might play Week 3 without LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and CBs Jaylon Johnson (groin) and Kyler Gordon (hamstring).

Others to like:

Matchup to avoid: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles). Though he’s still seeing the heavy, fantasy-friendly workloads he did during the past two seasons — his 75% snap rate and 17.5 carries per game are within range of his 85% (healthy games only) and 19.4 marks from 2023-24 — Williams appears to have less explosiveness through two games. Per Next Gen Stats, his average speed and 15 mph run rates are both down (11.5 mph and 11.4%). That’s a concern with a matchup against the Eagles up next after the defending champions held Chiefs running backs to 55 yards on 19 carries in Week 2.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@CLE

1

-0.3 @CHI

32

-0.1LAR

2

-5.0 IND

31

2.0NYJ

3

-2.8 @BUF

30

0.4LV

4

0.3 KC

29

2.5@BAL

5

-2.9 @SEA

28

2.5@PHI

6

-2.1 MIA

27

3.0@LAC

7

-0.3 DAL

26

2.1CIN

8

-3.4 @MIN

25

1.5HOU

9

4.5 @NE

24

-1.1@NYG

10

-5.7 ATL

23

7.9GB

11

-2.5 DEN

22

-2.3@TEN

12

2.1 @JAX

21

-3.2@TB

13

-1.5 @SF

20

2.0NO

14

-0.5 PIT

19

2.2@CAR

15

-0.2 @WSH

18

0.5ARI

16

2.3 DET

17

-1.8

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers (at New England Patriots). CB Christian Gonzalez’s hamstring injury has been particularly problematic for the Patriots’ defense, which through two weeks has already seen four wide receivers score 13 or more fantasy points. Alex Austin and Marcus Jones have struggled in Gonzalez’s absence, surrendering 35.3 points on 17 targets as the nearest defender. Metcalf, who hasn’t yet seen the lofty target share initially expected working with Aaron Rodgers, should find plenty of opportunities this week. Even if Gonzalez is healthy enough to return, it’s probable he will not be in peak form.

Others to like:

Matchup to avoid: Chris Olave, Saints (at Seahawks). He’s certainly seeing the targets he needs to succeed — his 31% share is 10th best in the league — but he has one of the shakier quarterbacks throwing him the football in Spencer Rattler, and Olave has had to battle Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele for looks in red zone situations (two targets and no scores to the others’ five targets and two scores). The Seahawks, meanwhile, have been one of the stingiest defenses against wide receivers thus far, in large part because of the performance of CB Josh Jobe, who also finished the 2024 season on a high note. In his past six games, Jobe has surrendered only 20.8 fantasy points on 23 targets as the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@LAC

1

-1.3 @CHI

32

2.3LAR

2

-3.6 @MIN

31

0.4@TEN

3

1.0 @SEA

30

0.5LV

4

-1.0 @WSH

29

-2.0@JAX

5

1.2 @BUF

28

-1.2@CLE

6

-3.4 PIT

27

-0.8NO

7

-0.1 @PHI

26

1.1@TB

8

-0.9 @NYG

25

0.0ARI

9

-3.5 HOU

24

4.1CIN

10

4.8 @CAR

23

4.0ATL

11

0.2 @BAL

22

2.2@SF

12

-2.7 NYJ

21

3.1DAL

13

-5.4 @NE

20

-2.0MIA

14

1.4 GB

19

3.2IND

15

-4.7 KC

18

-0.8DET

16

2.4 DEN

17

1.3

Tight ends

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Matchups highlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers). We would understand if you’re hesitant to trust him after three consecutive disappointing campaigns entering this one, but Pitts has seen more looks through two games, as evidenced by his career-best 21% target share. That meshes well with this supremely favorable matchup, as the Panthers were the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted defense against the position last season, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends through two weeks this season.

Matchup to avoid: Mark Andrews, Ravens (vs. Lions). Slow starts are nothing new to him, as he has averaged 10.5 fantasy points in September in his career, compared to 12.9 the rest of the season. Four of his six worst single-game point totals have occurred in September of either this or last season. Worse, Andrews has managed only 2.9 points on four targets total this season despite the absence of fellow pass-catching tight end Isaiah Likely (foot). The Lions, unfortunately, provide Andrews little respite from his slump, having limited opposing tight ends to the fewest fantasy points per game (8.9) and third-worst catch rate (64.9%) since the beginning of last season.

DEF toavoidOpp.RkAdj.FPA DEF toexploitOpp.RkAdj.FPA@BAL

1

-2.0 ATL

32

2.2LAR

2

-2.6 @CHI

31

-1.8@LAC

3

-1.9 IND

30

-1.6@TB

4

-1.4 @PHI

29

1.9@JAX

5

-0.8 @SF

28

-1.5CIN

6

0.9 GB

27

-0.5HOU

7

2.1 LV

26

-1.2@NYG

8

1.9 @BUF

25

0.9@CAR

9

0.1 @TEN

24

3.8DAL

10

0.7 @WSH

23

2.6@CLE

11

0.8 NO

22

0.0@SEA

12

0.6 @MIN

21

3.1DET

13

0.3 NYJ

20

1.6KC

14

-2.9 DEN

19

-3.9ARI

15

-1.9 MIA

18

-1.1PIT

16

0.2 @NE

17

1.4