There are 13 games left in Week 9 after the Ravens beat the Dolphins on Thursday night. To get ready for the rest of the action, our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three potentially big surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen picking one key matchup to watch. Finally, sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado gives her favorite bet of Week 9.
Has efficiency actually been a problem for 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey this season? Who has the edge in a strength-on-strength Broncos-Texans matchup? Is there fantasy upside for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold or Bears tight end Colston Loveland in Week 9? And could the Steelers end the Colts’ four-game win streak with an upset?
We get into all that, plus a lot of key intel on the AFC Championship Game rematch between the Chiefs and Bills. Let’s start there.
Jump to:Stat trends | Fantasy sleepersPotential surprises | Key matchupBest bet of the week
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 9 winners
Can the Bills’ defense push the Chiefs out of their comfort zone?
No team likes to pass more than the Chiefs, and almost no team likes to pass in the middle of the field more than them. Fifty-six percent of their targets land between the numbers, second highest in the league. But that could be an issue against Buffalo’s defense, which allows the third-lowest target rate to the middle of the field (43%).
In addition to that, the Bills are a run-inducing defense. The pass rate over expectation against them this season is a league-low minus-10%. (Buffalo having the fourth-worst run defense in terms of EPA per play surely has something to do with that number.)
So what does that mean for Kansas City’s offense? Instead of relying on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice’s strengths in the middle of the field, this could be determined by Xavier Worthy’s ability on the outside and/or deep. Production from running backs Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith could be crucial, too. Starting running back Isiah Pacheco is not expected to play after spraining a knee ligament last week.
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Will 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey find efficiency against the Giants?
Do you know who has the worst rush yards over expectation in the NFL this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats? Believe it or not, it’s McCaffrey at minus-92. It has been overlooked because he has had such a productive season in the pass game, but McCaffrey and his 3.5 yards per carry have hardly been efficient.
Perhaps an antidote is coming in Week 9. The Giants are allowing 5.7 yards per carry this season, most in the NFL. But it gets even better for the 49ers. They run outside zone 52% of the time (second most), and the Giants are allowing even more yards per carry against those plays (6.7).
Who will win in the trenches, the Broncos’ offensive line or the Texans’ pass rush?
This is a pure strength-on-strength battle. The Broncos have perhaps the best pass-protecting offensive line in the league. They are No. 1 in pass block win rate (72.5%), and tackles Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are tied for fifth in PBWR at their position.
That ability has been key to the team’s offensive success with quarterback Bo Nix, but it will be under a different level of scrutiny Sunday. Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. has had a scorching start with a 27.2% pass rush win rate that ranks second at edge, and Danielle Hunter is ninth in the same category (20.2%). If the Broncos can hold off those two edge rushers, they’ll be in good shape. But that’s a big ask.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks (35.4% of rostered)
Darnold struggled against Houston before Seattle’s bye, scoring just 8.6 fantasy points, but that has been the case for almost every quarterback against the Texans’ defense. They’ve allowed 10.5 fantasy points per game to the position.
Before that game, Darnold had scored 16 or more fantasy points in five straight contests, including two with at least 20. He has one of the league’s top receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and faces a Commanders defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers (26.7% rostered)
Bourne is an intriguing option for Week 9. With wide receiver Ricky Pearsall still sidelined and quarterback Brock Purdy’s status uncertain, Bourne should remain the 49ers’ No. 2 receiver. He has already shown chemistry with backup Mac Jones from their time in New England and has delivered steady fantasy production in recent weeks. Facing a Giants defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, Bourne has a clear path to target volume and upside.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears (24.1% rostered)
Loveland could be leaned on more this week with Cole Kmet still limited in practice and multiple Bears receivers dealing with injuries. The rookie tight end played over 80% of the offensive snaps and saw five targets against the Ravens. What makes Loveland even more appealing is the matchup, as no defense allows more fantasy points per game to tight ends than Cincinnati.
2:10
Are the Bears serious playoff contenders?
Taylor Lewan, Dan Orlovsky, Andrew Hawkins and Will Compton debate if Caleb Williams and the Bears are frauds.
Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (12.8% rostered)
Kareem Hunt is expected to start for Kansas City after Isiah Pacheco’s injury, but Smith should also see more touches. He has recorded at least three receptions in four of his past five games, and though he hasn’t been heavily used as a runner, he could be viable if given more carries. It also helps that the Bills have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (10.9% rostered)
Pierce is the definition of big-play upside, averaging 21.4 yards per reception this season. He has topped 60 receiving yards in four of six games and has seen at least five targets in four contests, including 10 targets in Week 7. The Steelers’ defense has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and 13 passing touchdowns, putting Pierce in position for another explosive performance.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if …
The Bears bounce right back against the Bengals
Chicago was on a four-game winning streak when they caught the Ravens at an absolute nightmare spot last week — after a bye, at home, highly motivated to make a playoff push and returning a ton of players from injury. The Ravens looked like an elite team again, and the Bears are still a step or two below that status. But the Bengals? Chicago should run roughshod on Cincinnati’s defense, and it might finally find some pass rush against the Bengals’ shaky interior.
The Steelers upset the Colts
It is precisely when everyone doubts him the most that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has his greatest performances. The 7-1 Colts are due for a letdown game, and traveling to Pittsburgh with a depleted secondary feels dangerous. The Colts have been good at generating pressure with four rushers, but injuries to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis question their depth at defensive line, too. Indy should lead for most of the game with that tremendous offense, but if this is within one score in the fourth quarter, watch out for a masterclass from Steelers kicker Chris Boswell.
1:09
McCarthy to McAfee: Rodgers is really starting to settle in with Steelers
Mike McCarthy joins Pat McAfee and discusses watching Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers host the Packers.
Rumors about the Vikings trading for a QB intensify
We’re getting J.J. McCarthy’s third start this week, and it’s a doozy. The Vikings are on the road in Detroit against a tremendous run defense and a confusing, aggressive secondary. I expect a ton of third-and-longs for McCarthy and some shaky pass protection. If this game gets ugly just two days before the NFL trade deadline, I’d expect Minnesota to make some calls for a viable QB2 who could moonlight as QB1. The Colts’ Anthony Richardson Sr.? The Eagles’ Tanner McKee? The Chiefs’ Gardner Minshew?
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Chiefs coach Andy Reid vs. the Bills’ foundational coverages
Walder mentioned the Bills’ strength at defending the middle of the field, but another wrinkle to consider is their reliance on zone coverage. Buffalo runs zone on 69.5% of opponent dropbacks (eighth most in the NFL), so Reid can work to scheme throws for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Think leveled routes here, with vertical clear-out routes to lift the safeties and open the coverage voids for intermediate targets.
A specific player to watch? Travis Kelce, who just had a season-high 99 receiving yards against the Commanders. I think he will be a major part of the matchup.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 9
UNDER 52.5 points in Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is not built like the old version that lived on chunk plays. The Bills are run-focused, averaging a league-high 164.4 rushing yards per game, and are willing to take what is given to them. Meanwhile, Kansas City dictates pace, uses the run and leans on possession and patience.
The Bills’ injuries on the interior defensive line (defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out indefinitely with a torn biceps) could matter, but that does not automatically turn this into a shootout. Instead, this matchup could turn into a ball control script, as both teams are within the top three leaguewide in time of possession. This one will be tight, physical and decided by execution — not explosive plays.
