Mike Reiss
Jeff Legwold
Jeff Legwold
ESPN Senior Writer
Jeff Legwold covers the Denver Broncos at ESPN. He has covered the Broncos for more than 20 years and also assists with NFL draft coverage, joining ESPN in 2013. He has been a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Board of Selectors since 1999, too. Jeff previously covered the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans at previous stops prior to ESPN.
In a throwback to 2012-15, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are separating from the pack in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Both enter this weekend with 11-2 records and are in the midst of 10-game winning streaks.
Four regular-season games remain to determine who lands the lone, coveted first-round bye.
“You are in a position where they can kind of see that if you’re able to capture the No. 1 seed, you eliminate a game and that is significant,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said, when asked about players scoreboard-watching around the NFL.
In addition to a bye, the No. 1 seed also means home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Payton remembers the significance of that from his time as the New Orleans Saints’ head coach. He recalled how his team was the No. 2 seed in the playoffs after the 2006 regular season and had to travel to frigid Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game on Jan. 21, where the Saints lost 39-14 to the Chicago Bears.
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“I remember after that tough loss feeling like, ‘We have to find a way to play this game at home,'” Payton said. “Each week, we build up this equity of where we are … and these guys are smart enough to know what each of these games count for.”
Payton got the No. 1 seed twice after, in 2009 and 2018. New Orleans won Super Bowl XLIV over the Indianapolis Colts to conclude the 2009 season and lost to the Los Angeles Rams in overtime of the 2018 NFC Championship Game in controversial fashion.
In New England, head coach Mike Vrabel has highlighted a narrower viewpoint.
“We’re just trying to play for the championship that we have available this week,” he said, a reference to how if the Patriots beat the visiting Buffalo Bills on Sunday, they will win the AFC East for the first time since 2019.
If they accomplish that feat, then perhaps their attention will turn more decisively to the possibility of the No. 1 seed. That would fall in line with what Vrabel said when he was hired as the franchise’s 16th head coach in January.
“Our goals will be to win the AFC East, to host home playoff games and to compete for championships,” Vrabel said that day.
ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss and Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold take a look at each team’s remaining schedule, keys to getting the No. 1 seed, the biggest hurdles and tiebreaker scenarios.
Jump to a section:Schedule | Numbers | Three keysBiggest hurdle | Tiebreaker | Last No. 1 seed
Remaining schedules
Broncos
Week 15: Sunday vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Week 16: Dec. 21 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4), 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Week 17: Dec. 25 at Kansas City Chiefs (6-7), 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Week 18: Jan. 3 or 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4), TBD
Combined record of Broncos’ remaining opponents: 33-18-1
Patriots
Week 15: Dec. 14 vs. Buffalo Bills (9-4), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Week 16: Dec. 21 at Baltimore Ravens (6-7), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 17: Dec. 28 at New York Jets (3-10), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Week 18: Jan. 3 or 4 vs. Miami Dolphins (6-7), TBD
Combined record of Patriots’ remaining opponents: 24-28
Behind the numbers
Percentage odds of each team getting the No. 1 seed plus other achievements, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Broncos
No. 1 seed: 45.6% | Win AFC West: 86%
Make AFC Championship Game: 39.6% | Make Super Bowl: 9.9%
Patriots
No. 1 seed: 38.4% | Win AFC East: 81.5%
Make AFC Championship Game: 33.8% | Make Super Bowl: 6.6%
Three keys to the No. 1 seed for each team
Broncos
Keep Bo Nix in his current groove: Since a lackluster 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10, after which Payton called the game plan “awful,” the coach and Nix have found a better rhythm. They’ve found a groove by utilizing “songs they know by heart,” Payton’s term for plays he knows Nix can execute well. In the past three games, Nix has completed 70% of his passes, is 11th in QBR and fifth in completion percentage above expectation. In the first 10 weeks, Nix completed 60.9% of his passes, was 18th in QBR and 28th in CPOE.
Keep the heat on opposing QBs: There are four first-round QBs left on the Broncos’ schedule — Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Defensive tackle Zach Allen and edge rusher Nik Bonitto are currently first and fifth in the league in QB hits, respectively, as the Broncos’ defense leads the league in sacks with 55. Denver has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 10.4% of their dropbacks, also tops in the NFL. The Broncos also lead the NFL in third-down defense (30.9%) and red zone defense (40%).
Clean up the messes: The most glaring items that could derail the Broncos are special teams play and a propensity for penalties. Denver has seen some progress in both areas, especially on special teams. Marvin Mims Jr. returned a punt for a touchdown this past Sunday, and Wil Lutz has hit several game-winning field goals. But the Broncos are still the third-most penalized team in the league — after spending much of the season at No. 1 or No. 2 — and have the most-penalized defense in the NFL. — Legwold
Patriots
Drake Maye’s efficiency: Vrabel has highlighted quarterback efficiency as one of the keys to New England’s victories. Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.5%) and completion percentage above expectation (8.2%). He ranks third in QBR (72.2). In addition, the Patriots have had six games with a different leading receiver, which is reflective of Maye’s knack for spreading the wealth. Combined with his accuracy, it’s a potent package. If Maye continues to perform at a high level, the Patriots will be tough to beat.
More Marcus Jones magic: Jones has five non-offensive TDs since 2022, including two punt return touchdowns (87 and 94 yards) and a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown this season. That’s second most in the NFL in that span after Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (six). The ability to score “bonus points” has helped the Patriots play games on their terms, while also providing a spark in adverse situations (such as recovering from a slow start in a Week 12 win over the Bengals) — which will be needed in the homestretch.
Tighten up run D: The Patriots held opposing running backs to 50 or fewer yards in each of the first nine games of the season, but some cracks have begun to show. Since Week 10, New England has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That has coincided, in part, with defensive tackle Milton Williams going on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Williams isn’t eligible to return until Week 17 against the Jets. — Reiss
Biggest hurdle for each team
Broncos: Their defense is one of the best in the league, so they don’t need to have an elite offense, but they will need more efficiency when they have the ball. They’re 19th in points per drive this season (2.08) and have seen 27.6% of their possessions end in three-and-outs, the third-highest frequency in the NFL. The Broncos are 9-2 in one-score games, which shows their mettle, but they’ll need a little more from their offense against quality playoff opponents. — Legwold
Patriots: The red zone. The Patriots’ offense is in a dry spell inside the 20-yard line, scoring only one touchdown in their past six trips. Overall, they have totaled 24 touchdowns inside the red zone on 44 trips (not including game-ending kneel-downs or end-of-half field goals). Defensively, they rank last in the NFL in touchdown percentage (73%), with opponents scoring 19 touchdowns in 26 trips. One positive is the infrequency of opposing red zone trips, as the Patriots give up an average of only two red zone possessions per game. — Reiss
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Tiebreaker breakdown
For teams that don’t play in the same division or don’t play head-to-head, the first tiebreaker is conference record, then record against common opponents. Regarding the conference record tiebreaker, the Broncos and Patriots would have the same conference record if their overall records are the same and Denver beats the Packers on Sunday. If the Broncos lose to the Packers and end the season tied with the Patriots, Denver would have a better record against AFC opponents and win that tiebreaker.
If it goes to common opponents, the Broncos and Patriots had five common opponents this season — Raiders, Titans, Jets, Bengals and Giants. The Patriots suffered the only loss by either team in any of those games — to the Raiders in Week 1. Since there are no common opponents remaining on their schedules, the Broncos would win that tiebreaker if the two teams finish with the same record. — Legwold
The last time each team was the No. 1 seed was …
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Broncos: 2015. Denver finished 12-4 and earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed over the Patriots because of its 30-24 overtime win over New England in Week 12. That home-field advantage was crucial for Denver in its 20-18 AFC Championship Game victory over the Patriots. The Broncos went on to win Super Bowl 50 over the Carolina Panthers, with Von Miller winning the MVP. — Legwold
Patriots: 2017. The Patriots had a 13-3 record and dispatched the Titans in the divisional round (35-14) before narrowly edging the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game (24-20). That set up a date with the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, with Tom Brady throwing for 505 yards in a heartbreaking 41-33 loss that sparked a question many in New England are still asking: Why did coach Bill Belichick not play cornerback Malcolm Butler on defense? — Reiss
