He shoots, he scores! The ideal player regularly checks off both boxes, for their NHL squads and fantasy hockey managers alike. However, sometimes lousy puck luck comes into play, where a skater fires a hefty number of shots on net — including many of the high-quality variety — without reaping the reward of finding the back of the net in reasonable ratio. That results in a shooting percentage ranking well below the league average. Happily, often enough, such a player is due a positive regression to the mean once there’s a turn in fortune, a potential situation proactive fantasy managers should be well aware of.
A quarter of the way into 2025-26, a handful of forwards who, despite firing on net regularly and filling a prominent role at even strength and on the power play, have inordinately few goals to show for their efforts. That suggests a turnaround is likely in order. These figures, listed below, could eventually prove very valuable to your fantasy squad.
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For this exercise, I’m focusing on centers and wingers, saddled with a shooting percentage significantly below normal, who nonetheless rifle on the opposition’s net with above-average regularity. Their respective Individual Expected Goals (ixG) metric, compliments of Evolving Hockey, is also noted in the spirit that these guys are indeed due to see better scoring numbers in short order. These are players you might want to jump on in the fantasy field, if possible, before they heat up.
Conversely, it’s worth highlighting some players who are scoring too efficiently in the early stages of this campaign. Not to suggest that (some of) these forwards should be jettisoned — absolutely not — only that to continue to expect the same rate of scoring going forward might be unwise.
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Off the mark
Nazem Kadri, F, Calgary Flames (5.6 S%, 3.27 S/GP, 4 G, 7.61 ixG)
No deep dive needed here. Four goals on 72 shots from someone who’s banged out 0.31 goals/game over a career spanning 1,000-plus contests, is beyond atypical. My favorite under-producer of this bunch, Kadri is apt to regain form as early as Saturday versus the Dallas Stars. After averaging 2.0 fantasy points in ESPN Fantasy standard leagues last season, bolstered by 35 goals, there’s no reason to expect any different. He merits targeting via trade.
Nikolaj Ehlers, F, Carolina Hurricanes (7.0 S%, 2.85 S/GP, 4 G, 5.64 ixG)
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If you lop off his first five warmup games with the Hurricanes, the former Jet is actually averaging 0.87 points per contest, including all four goals in his past nine. That’s more like it. In fact, competing on a second scoring line and top power play, Ehlers has failed to dent the scoresheet only once in those nine games, accumulating nine points total, including four on the power play. I also wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the winger eventually back on a top line with Sebastian Aho, should his current trajectory continue. Sometimes it takes a spell for a player to develop with a new squad. A sneaky-good addition at present, Ehlers could be available in your league.
J.T. Miller. F, New York Rangers (11.8 S%, 2.32 S/GP, 6 G, 10.07 ixG)
It’s worth noting that, at the start of assembling this column Thursday, Miller was floating an even more inefficient 8.3 S%. That was before the Rangers forward improved on his goals total by 50% with a pair of power-play tallies versus the Colorado Avalanche … even furthering the argument that, after potting just four on 48 shots, he was bound to break out soon. (The minus-4 performance is a story for another day.)
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To start, the veteran’s career shooting percentage is 14.9%, despite barely catching the back of the net his first two seasons. Then there’s the top-line/power-play role, along with his 20-plus minutes/game to consider. Rostered in 90% of ESPN leagues, Miller is worth a trade offer on the chance his current manager remains prematurely frustrated. He is as well-rounded as they come in fantasy, bringing a little of everything to the table, including goals.
Quinton Byfield, F, Los Angeles Kings (7.4 S%, 2.57 S/GP, 4 G, 6.98 ixG)
Centering the Kings’ top line and skating on the No. 1 power play while logging more than 20 minutes/game, the 23-year-old will score 30 goals this season. His underlying analytics support that prognostication along with ye olde eye test. Toss in another 40 assists — he already has 13 — and you have yourself a precious performer in all but the shallowest of ESPN Fantasy leagues. At present, Byfield is available in 50% of leagues.
Jonathan Marchessault, F, Nashville Predators (9.3 S%, 2.53 S/GP, 4 G, 6.49 ixG)
Following last weekend’s trip to Europe, the full five-day break offers Marchessault a good, and rather necessary, opportunity to re-tune. Goodness knows, it can’t get any drier for the winger, who’s pointless in seven straight, despite rifling 15 shots on net and averaging nearly 19 minutes/game. While it hasn’t been all sunshine and gumdrops for the former Stanley Cup winner in Nashville, this is still a player who scored 42 goals in Vegas only two seasons ago. And he apparently wants a change of scenery.
If truly interested in being dealt, Marchessault would be advised to put a productive foot forward in selling himself to other organizations. Fantasy managers in deeper leagues might benefit from rolling the dice on the 34-year-old in anticipation of brighter days ahead. He remains available in approximately 40% of ESPN leagues.
Too much on target
Martin Necas, F, Colorado Avalanche (28.9 S%, 2.25 S/GP, 13 G, 7.98 ixG)
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Nobody is suggesting you jettison the Avalanche winger, or move him for a package of mediocre fantasy parts in return. That’s ridiculous. Skating on a top line and power play with Nathan MacKinnon, the former Hurricane is rewarding his fantasy managers handsomely nearly every outing. But he’s not scoring 45 goals this season. He’s not. So hear me out, if you play in a league that compensates goal scoring at a premium, there is some merit to trading Necas. Perhaps another top-end skater who has the greater potential, supported by statistics, to score more between now and April could be available. Again, we’re just chatting here.
Tyler Bertuzzi, F, Chicago Blackhawks (27.0 S%, 2.18 S/GP, 10 G, 6.23 ixG)
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Boosted by a flurry of goals in the first third of November, Bertuzzi sits second in Chicago scoring only behind star Connor Bedard. Fine and good, except Bedard has 13 goals on 70 shots while the veteran winger has 10 on only 37. My advice? Ride the 30-year-old, who scored again Thursday versus the Kraken, until the well runs dry, then move on. Prone to produce in sporadic fashion, Bertuzzi scored only twice all of October.
Kiefer Sherwood, F, Vancouver Canucks (30.0 S%, 1.82 S/GP, 12 G, 5.37 ixG)
Let that sink in: According to the best number-crunchers in the biz, Sherwood should have five goals on the season. Twenty-two games in, the gap between five and his current 12 is a significant one. As far as ratios go, there’s unsustainable, and then there’s unsustainable. The fact the 30-year-old scored a career-high 19 last season was impressive enough. Sherwood is treasured more for his physical play — he led the league with a whopping 460 hits in 2024-25 — and he certainly deserves a roster spot in deeper leagues that reward a little bit of everything. Just don’t ask for 45-50 goals from this player by the time April rolls around. You won’t get them.
