While everyone is talking about the hotly contested wild card race in the Eastern Conference, as about three to four teams are vying for one spot, there is another race in the East that people should be talking about. That race is for first in the Atlantic Division between the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, and Tampa Bay Lightning. And the biggest question is which team needs to finish first the most.
While you can argue that the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning need to finish first, the obvious answer is the Toronto Maple Leafs because of their playoff failures. They have only had one playoff series since the core four were together, and it was in 2023 against the Lightning.
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Even though the Maple Leafs beat the Lightning in 2023 to get out of the first round, led by then captain John Tavares, it will be tough for the Maple Leafs to beat two teams back-to-back that play similar styles to get to the Eastern Conference Final. As TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button mentioned on SportsCenter with Jay Onrait, he feels the way those teams play will exploit areas of the game the Maple Leafs struggle in.
I think it’s critically important, because I don’t think they match up very well against either of those teams. So if you get through the first round by finishing first, you’re going to have to face one of them in the second round, but you don’t want to have to face both of them.
And when I look at Tampa Bay and Florida. They forecheck and cycle the puck really well. They get the puck into the slot area. Oh, those are defensive areas that the Toronto Maple Leafs really struggle in. They’re not very good in those areas. You have experience in Tampa Bay and Florida, and that knows how to wear you down.
And for the Toronto Maple Leafs, finishing in first place avoids that in the first round, because I think if they have to face one of those two teams in the first round, I don’t like their chances to move on past the first round. So finishing in first place for the Toronto Maple Leafs, from my vantage point, has to be a priority, because if they don’t, I just don’t see them getting out of the first round.
However, the Maple Leafs have a different edge under head coach Craig Berube. Just look at what they did recently, especially at the back end of their California road trip. It started with getting an important point against the San Jose Sharks in a shootout loss. They scored two goals in the final minute to tie the game, and it was the big boys led by Tavares, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander.
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Toronto ended the Los Angeles Kings 15-game point streak on home ice. Again, it was the big boys coming up large, and the goaltenders stood tall with Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz. And then last Sunday against the Anaheim Ducks, on the second half of a back-to-back, the Maple Leafs found a way with their depth to win a game when they did not have their best.
On Wednesday night, against those Florida Panthers, who were short-handed in playing without Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, the Maple Leafs hung on to win a home game that teams normally lose. When a team has a long road trip out West, they usually lose that first game back. However, the Maple Leafs found a way to hold on as Stolarz, along with Matthew Knies, backstopped the team to victory.
That win against the Panthers propelled the Leafs to a four-point lead over Florida, which sits in third and three points over the Lightning, who sit in second. If the Maple Leafs are to finish first, they get their rival, the Ottawa Senators, in the Battle of Ontario. That is not a cakewalk because of the emotions involved in that series. But it gives them a little easier path than playing both of the Florida teams.
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The key to success will be for the Maple Leafs to play the right way under Berube. But when the second season starts, they hope the success carries over because that is why he was hired.
It will be a fun end to the regular season. The final wild card spot and the Atlantic Division are up for grabs, with the Toronto Maple Leafs needing to win the division the most.
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