No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will play No. 4 Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open men’s final — with history on the line. Will Alcaraz win and become the youngest man to win all four major titles? Or will Djokovic defy the odds and pull off a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?
Who will it be? Our experts break it down.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Djokovic?
D’Arcy Maine: During Friday’s semifinal, Alcaraz battled through injury, cramping and even vomiting during the 5-hour, 27-minute encounter — not to mention some incredible play from Alexander Zverev — and still pulled off the victory. Asked afterward about how he won despite the circumstances, Alcaraz said he kept “believing, believing, all the time.”
And that gets to the heart of what makes Alcaraz so good. He knows he can win, no matter what, and fights until the last point. Clearly, the better tennis player at this stage, and with the physical edge, if Alcaraz keeps the same fighting spirit and unmistakable resolve he has shown, this should be his to win.
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Jake Michaels: Alcaraz’s remodeled serve (off Djokovic’s, no less!) has been his secret weapon this tournament. If he continues to land his first serve at a higher rate, he will be tough to overcome, even for the greatest returner in tennis history.
Also, and it might seem incredibly backward because he’s 16 years younger than his opponent, but Alcaraz has to end the match quickly. After his epic, energy-sapping five-and-a-half-hour semifinal win over Zverev in the heat of the day, the longer this final lasts, the more the pendulum swings in Djokovic’s favor. It’s not just because the 24-time major champion is fresher, having spent four fewer hours on court to reach the final, but because he knows how to win when these legacy-defining Grand Slam matches go down to the wire.
Jarryd Barca: Obviously, it’s the case for both players, but Alcaraz doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel; he simply needs to be the best version of himself. The world No. 1 has shown no letdown all tournament, dismissing his first five opponents in straight sets, before enduring that wild, physically and mentally draining five-set semifinal with Zverev. He began cramping and barely moving during the concluding stages of the third set, but Alcaraz showed the kind of steely resolve we’ve long associated with Djokovic, overcoming a 3-5 deficit in the fifth set to win despite being far from his peak.
Tactically, variety will be the key. Alcaraz must disrupt Djokovic’s rhythm with changes of pace and direction, something Jannik Sinner didn’t do enough of in his semifinal loss. Alcaraz has to take away Djokovic’s comfort and make him work for every point. If Alcaraz can fatigue the 38-year-old’s legs early and often, his equally jaw-dropping athleticism and creativity should tilt the match in his favor.
What can Djokovic do to defeat Alcaraz?
Maine: Though recovery will obviously be key for both players entering Sunday’s final, it will be crucial for Djokovic. At 38 years old, Friday’s marathon semifinal likely will affect Djokovic more than the five-plus-hour battle the 22-year-old Alcaraz endured. To win the elusive 25th major title — it’s impressive he’s even in this position — he will need everything he has.
And if Djokovic can find more gas in the tank, he will have to utilize a similar strategy as he did during last year’s quarterfinal match. In that four-set victory against Alcaraz, Djokovic dropped the first set and, despite an obvious injury, then took control. He aggressively began dictating the points, and began ripping groundstrokes and firing one risky shot after another and relentlessly maintaining the pressure until it was over. But whatever tactics he uses, Djokovic will need his best level to pull off this victory.
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Michaels: The Djokovic contrast in demeanor and level of play from quarterfinal to semifinal was stark. Against Lorenzo Musetti in the last eight, Djokovic looked subdued and almost disinterested as he lost the first two sets. But Friday evening, in that titanic battle against Sinner, Djokovic once again resembled the man who has the heart of a lion and the greatest tennis skills in history. For Djokovic to beat Alcaraz on Sunday evening, he can’t slip back into his demeanor from the quarterfinal — even for a second. He must continue to be the aggressor. He must be ruthless. He must get animated. And if he can achieve all of that, the crowd is sure to get behind him and will him to a 25th major title.
Barca: Similar to Alcaraz, it starts with recovery, but execution will decide everything, just as it did Friday night. His serve was extraordinary against Sinner, and it must be again, Djokovic is winning 86% of first-serve points in the second set and 77% in the fourth, using his precise placements to escape pressure and dictate play. It’s what allowed him to swing freely on his forehand throughout the match, playing with aggression rarely seen so late in his career, but needed to topple the top two players in the world.
Against Alcaraz, Djokovic must match that pace and intensity again. But he doesn’t need to outhit the Spaniard in every point. Djokovic must outlast him in the big moments, and find ways to replicate the 16 of 18 break points he saved against Sinner. That was the difference in the semifinal. Limiting Alcaraz’s chances by staying clutch, brave and protecting his serve will go a long way toward finding a way to win again.
Who will win?
Maine: Alcaraz is the favorite, but we’ve all seen what Djokovic can do — and the magic he has so often found throughout his storied career. Though fatigue could be a factor, Djokovic knows this might be his best (and perhaps last) chance to secure No. 25, and, as he did during the Olympic gold medal match against Alcaraz, he will give his all to achieve it. I can’t pick against that. Djokovic in four sets.
Michaels: For years, I’ve written that you cannot count out Djokovic at the Australian Open, regardless of the circumstances. He proved just how true that is yet again Friday evening in dethroning defending champion Sinner with one of his greatest performances of his illustrious career. At 38, he shouldn’t be in the final. He shouldn’t be able to go toe-to-toe with this next generation. And yet, he is. How can you pick against him? Djokovic will prevail in five enthralling sets.
Barca: Both men arrive in the final battered and bruised. Alcaraz battled cramps to survive the third-longest match in tournament history against Zverev, while veteran Djokovic produced one of the great performances of his career to dethrone two-time defending champion Sinner in over four hours despite his own visible physical struggles.
So, does this come down to recovery? Is it really who wakes up feeling fresher? Who avoids physical issues for longer? Djokovic’s history matters a lot here. He has never lost an Australian Open final, has already turned back the clock once this week and thrives when the stakes grow. Alcaraz might be the world No. 1, but Djokovic knows this stage better than anyone and might have a mental edge, leading the head-to-head 5-4. If Djokovic can produce anything close to his semifinal level again, it’s hard not to trust him. Djokovic in five.
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