By Richard Pagliaro | Wednesday, January 28, 2026Photo credit: Australian Open Facebook
It’s a flawless final four in Melbourne Park.
This is the fifth time in the Open Era that all four players have reached Slam semifinals without dropping a set—after the 1970 Australian Open, 1976 US Open, 1980 US Open and 1995 Roland Garros.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is playing to reclaim the Australian Open championship she’s won twice, WTA Finals champion Elena Rybakina is aiming to capture her second career Grand Slam championship and 30-somethings Elina Svitolina and Jessica Pegula are both competing for a maiden major championship.
Here’s our 2026 Australian Open semifinal preview and prediction.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (12) Elina Svitolina (UKR)
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 5-1
Grand Slam head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 1-0
Australian Open Records: Sabalenka 33-6 (Best Result: Champion 2023 and 2024); Svitolina 34-12 (Best Result: 2026 Semifinals)
2026 Records: Sabalenka 10-0; Svitolina 10-0
Career Grand Slam Records: Sabalenka 105-26; Svitolina 113-47
Career Grand Slam Titles: Sabalenka 4, Svitolina: None
Age: Sabalenka 27; Svitolina 31
Height: Sabalenka 5’11”; Svitolina 5’9”
Career Prize Money: Sabalenka $45,397,966; Svitolina $26,695,471
Aryna Sabalenka on Elina Svitolina:
“It’s going to be a battle, because…it’s incredible player. I think my approach going to be the same. Doesn’t matter whom I’m facing. I’ll just go, and I’ll be focused on myself and on my game, and I’ll be fighting for every point. That’s my approach.”
Elina Svitolina on Aryna Sabalenka:
“It’s no secret that she’s very powerful player. I watch a little bit of her [quarterfinal] match. She was playing great tennis, and I think, you know, the power on all aspects of her game is her strengths. Yeah, I think she’s very consistent for the past years with everything that she does on the court. Yeah, for me, I’ll have to be ready for that, try to find the ways and the little holes, little opportunities in her game. Of course, you know, when you play the top players, you have to find, you know, these small opportunities and then be ready to take them.”
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
The world No. 1 is the more explosive player on every single shot. Sabalenka has been dominant Down Under winning 31 of her last 32 Melbourne matches. Working with former doubles world No. 1 Max Mirnyi as a co-coach, Sabalenka has added subtly and nuance to her power-based baseline game. She’s played the occasionally serve-and-volley, sharpened her slice backhand and deployed the drop shot at the right times. Sabalenka is a physical powerhouse, who is riding a 12-match major winning streak into this semifinal. When she’s on her game, Sabalenka can dictate on serve, dominant on return and overwhelm opponents from the baseline. Sabalenka is clearly the best player in the world and will show it reaching her eighth major final in her last 12 Grand Slams.
Why Elina Svitolina Will Win
Taking a four-month mental health break at the end of 2025, Svitolina has returned recharged mentally, physically and emotionally. The 31-year-old Svitolina has reasserted her competitive idenity and showed it, crushing reigning Roland Garros champion Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2 in one of the most comprehensive matches of her Grand Slam career. Yes, Sabalenka is more powerful, but Svitolina is arguably the most precise striker in the semifinals. Svitolina leads the tournament with 25 breaks of serve and if she can break early, she apply pressure to the sometime volatile Sabalenka. Svitolina is seeking her maiden major championship and first Grand Slam final. Every time she steps on the court, the 31-year-old Ukrainian is playing for a cause greater than herself—she’s a national hero playing to provide pride and hope to her people who remain under siege by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of their country. It’s a powerful force that can propel Svitolina to the upset here.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka d. Elina Svitolina in 2 sets
(6) Jessica Pegula (USA) vs. (5) Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
Head-to-head: Even 3-3
Grand Slam head-to-head: First major meeting
Australian Open Records: Pegula 20-6 (Best Result: 2026 Semifinals); Rybakina 19-6 (Best Result: 2023 Finalist)
2026 Records: Pegula 8-1; Rybakina 7-1
Career Grand Slam Records: Pegula 62-27; Rybakina 64-22
Career Grand Slam Titles: Pegula None; Rybakina 1 (2022 Wimbledon)
Age: Pegula 31; Rybakina 26
Height: Pegula 5’7”; Rybakina 6’0”
Career Prize Money: Pegula $21,944,750; Rybakina $24,476,357
Jessica Pegula on Elena Rybakina:
“As far as Rybakina, I just played her in Riyadh. She was playing really good tennis. Obviously won the event. It’s going to be really tough. Anyone that serves like she does, she’s always going to be in the match. Not just serve, but return and from the ground. You know, it’s not like she can only serve. She has a pretty well-rounded, all-around power game. I’m going to kind of look at some stuff I did in Riyadh and see if I can change some stuff, but yeah, it doesn’t get any easier from here on out.”
Elena Rybakina on Jessica Pegula:
“I would say, but the most important for me to be focused on my serve, since it’s a big advantage if it works, and stay aggressive in the rallies..[Pegula] is very experienced opponent and she moves well, and also her ball stays quite low. So that makes a bit difficult sometimes to play her, but I will try to adjust. Yeah, we’ll see who is going to win. I talk with my team. We make some plan for the match. Yeah, will try to do my best, definitely.”
Why Jessica Pegula Will Win
The template for Pegula to win this match comes from her quarterfinal win over Amanda Anisimova, who like Rybakina, is a tall power player who crushes the two-handed backhand. The flat-hitting Pegula must keep the ball low to make the 6’ Rybakina bend as she sometimes struggles to get under the low ball. Pegula is the better mover and if she can make the WTA Finals champion move corner-to-corner she can drain errors and dent the former Wimbledon champion’s confidence. Yes, Pegula is facing the biggest server in women’s tennis, but she’s been a sniper on return. Pegula’s 24 breaks in five matches is second only to Svitolina (25). At it’s core, this match comes down to Pegula’s ability to extend points vs. Rybakina’s ability to exterminate them. If Pegula can play to the lofty level she did against Anisimova and make Rybakina play the extra ball, she can prevail.
Why Elena Rybakina Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is the world’s best player, but Elena Rybakina has played the world’s best tennis over the past four months. Rybakina rolled to the WTA Finals championship defeating Iga Swiatek, Pegula and Sabalenka in succession to rule Riyadh. In the AO quarterfinals, Rybakina ripped 11 aces dismissing Swiatek 7-5, 6-1 despite serving just 49 percent. Rybakina not only beat Swiatek, she beat the belief out of the Pole. A red-hot Rybakina scored her 18th win in her last 19 matches—-and she’s posted eight straight Top 10 victories in that span. The 2025 WTA ace leader Rybakina will win because she can disarm Pegula with her serve and dispatch her with her first strike. Rybakina can command the center of the court, she leads the tournament with 35 aces and in the all-important second-serve points won category, Rybakina has been resolute winning 61 percent of her second serve points. The 2023 AO finalist is firing with confidence and if she holds her nerve she will continue this roll into the final.
Prediction: Elena Rybakina d. Jessica Pegula in 3 sets
