A lot can change in a year on the tennis tour. Around this time in 2024, Naomi Osaka was 57th in the world, still looking for traction following her return from maternity leave. Belinda Bencic was 487th, just getting started on her own comeback. Eighteen-year-old Victoria Mboko was 336th and only beginning to embark on a high-level professional pursuit. Now they’re 16th, 11th and 18th in the world, respectively. Amanda Anisimova jumped from 36th to fourth.
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On the men’s side, Felix Auger-Aliassime rose from 29th to fifth. Teenagers Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien leapt from 145th and 122nd, respectively, to 24th and 28th. The names at the very top of the sport didn’t change all that much, but pretty much everything else did.
With the blink-and-you’ll-miss-it tennis offseason now over — seriously, the Australian Open starts in less than two weeks somehow — the caravan is about to start moving all over again. We’ll have to preview the Aussie Open in due time, but as we begin 2026, let’s talk American tennis. We saw some delightful moves from players such as Anisimova and Tien in 2025, but what might happen moving forward? What might the hierarchy look like a year from now?
ATP
The 2026 ATP season will be defined by whether anyone can step up to challenge the rule of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. The two enter 2026 having compiled 23,550 rankings points over the past year, a higher point total than what players No. 3 through 7 earned combined. They met in three of four Slam finals in 2025, and they’ve combined to win eight consecutive Slam titles. We’ll see if anyone can put an end to this run, but two of the major candidates to do so are Americans.
1. Taylor Fritz
Age: 28
Current ATP rank: 9 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 5
Almost no one in men’s tennis has done a better job of slowly shoring up his weaknesses and maxing out his game than the California-born Fritz, who is finishing his fourth straight year in the top 10 and second straight in the top six. He reached the 2024 US Open final and the 2025 Wimbledon semis, and he scored his first official win over Alcaraz at the Laver Cup in September. (He’s also 1-4 against Sinner.) His game might have peaked in 2024, but he has earned the right to lead this list for another year.
2. Ben Shelton
Age: 23
Current ATP rank: 8 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 12
If any American can pass Fritz and challenge the Big 2, it’s the flamboyant Shelton, who enjoyed his first top-10 campaign in 2025 and reached his second-ever Slam semifinal in Australia to start the year. The big lefty with the big lefty serve has cleared a lot of hurdles, but the biggest one is still to come: He’s 0-3 all time against Alcaraz and has lost his past eight against Sinner. He’ll need a strong start in 2026 — he returned from a US Open shoulder injury in October but lost six of his last nine matches in 2025.
3. Learner Tien
Age: 20
Current ATP rank: 26 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 13
He’s only 5-foot-11, and his athleticism is average by tennis’ ridiculous standards. But no American — and really, almost no ATP player — enjoyed a more rousing 2025 than Tien, who went an incredible 5-3 against top-10 opponents, won the year-end Next Gen tournament and rose from 122nd to 28th in the ATP rankings. His game is based around depth, precision, adaptable tactics and an overwhelming level of “I belong here” confidence, and if he can upgrade his serve just a little bit, he has top-15 potential at worst.
4. Tommy Paul
Age: 28
Current ATP rank: 20 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 29
Because of a frustrating foot injury, Paul played only five tour matches after Wimbledon, and despite reaching the first two Slam quarterfinals of the year, he finished outside the ATP top 15 for the first time since 2022. When he’s in top form, he’s capable of short-term, redlining brilliance — he took a 6-1 first set against Sinner in Rome in May before dropping the next two — and he has reached four Slam quarters and a semifinal. Can rest and rehab allow him to resume that level in 2026?
5. Sebastian Korda
Age: 25
Current ATP rank: 46 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 21
Don’t be late — it’s time to board the Seb Korda bandwagon again! The 25-year-old has dealt with a number of injuries and false starts since his lone Slam quarterfinal appearance at the 2023 Australian Open. But after a first-round retirement at the US Open dropped him to 79th, he made the most of indoor season and charged back into the top 50 with a run to the Athens semifinals. If his body ever gives him a full year of runway — a massive “if” at this point — his technically brilliant game could carry him pretty far.
6. Frances Tiafoe
Age: 27
Current ATP rank: 30 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 40
Maybe no American player faces a bigger 2026 than Big Foe. He finished outside of the ATP top 20 for the first time since 2021, he lost his last five matches of the year — leaving him just 26-23 for the season (with no top-10 wins) — and only a French Open quarterfinal appearance kept him in the top 30. Like many other players, he elected to shake up his coaching team for 2026. He’s still young enough to reestablish himself, but nothing is guaranteed.
7. Jenson Brooksby
Age: 25
Current ATP rank: 49 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 42
In his first full season back on tour after a 13-month suspension for missed doping tests, Brooksby reestablished himself as a top-50-level player and scored wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Holger Rune, Tiafoe and Paul. He reached a tour final on both clay (he beat Tiafoe in Houston) and grass (lost to Fritz at Eastbourne), too. Does his enigmatic game have something higher than top-40 upside?
8. Alex Michelsen
Age: 21
Current ATP rank: 37 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 66
It almost seemed a year of stagnation for Michelsen, who finished 2024 at 41st in the world and managed to rise only a little bit further in 2025. Still, he scored a top-10 win over Lorenzo Musetti over the summer, and he checked boxes with his first fourth-round Slam appearance (Australian Open) and first 1000-level quarterfinal (Canadian Open). He’s a candidate to rise during the early-year hard-court run.
9. Brandon Nakashima
Age: 24
Current ATP rank: 33 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 44
It has been slow but steady improvement from the former Virginia Cavalier, who rose to 38th in 2024, then 33rd in 2025. He has taken the Fritz route, slowly fixing his weaknesses and grinding out wins, but pure upside is a concern: He went just 3-4 in Slams and 0-12 in full matches against top-20 opponents in 2025.
10. Ethan Quinn
Age: 21
Current ATP rank: 76 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 78
The former NCAA champion has good size (6-foot-3) and a strong serve-and-forehand game, and he jumped from outside the top 200 into the top 75 this past year. He qualified for three Slams and won matches at the French Open and Wimbledon. The grind is just starting for the former Georgia Bulldog, but at 21, he has a lot of time to figure things out.
Other potential breakthrough candidates: Reilly Opelka (current rank: 60), Emilio Nava (88), Eliot Spizzirri (89), Zachary Svajda (142), Colton Smith (145), Nishesh Basavareddy (172), Michael Zheng (182), Darwin Blanch (297).
WTA
I wrote last summer that the depth in women’s tennis is better than ever, and it grew deeper with Mboko’s ensuing breakthrough and Osaka’s fall form. The top three players on the women’s tour (Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff) don’t appear to be waning in power, but Anisimova and a resurgent Elena Rybakina round out a dynamite top five, and any of about 20 to 25 different players are looking at joining them in the top 10. This could be the deepest tour we’ve ever seen in 2026, and quite a few Americans could become serious factors (beyond, of course, the ones who already are).
1. Coco Gauff
Age: 21
Current WTA rank: 4 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 4
Somehow still only 21, Gauff has already put together a hall-of-fame résumé — two Slam titles, five Slam semifinals, 11 tour titles (including three 1000s and a WTA Finals win in 2024) — and she still hasn’t completely harnessed her entire game yet. She won the French Open and Wuhan titles in 2025 and won 75% of her matches despite double-faulting 10% of the time, easily the most of anyone in the WTA top 50. If she ever finds the service motion she’s looking for, then she rockets straight to Best in the World status.
2. Amanda Anisimova
Age: 24
Current WTA rank: 3 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 5
Anisimova was the story of the year in 2025, rising from 36th to fourth and reaching five finals, including Wimbledon and the US Open. Her extreme humanness was on display, both in the poise she showed in addressing the crowd after her 6-0, 6-0 loss to Swiatek in the Wimbledon final and in her revenge win over Swiatek in the US Open semis. Her backhand might be my favorite stroke in tennis, and her serve improved dramatically. She has everything she needs to sustain her 2025 breakthrough.
3. Jessica Pegula
Age: 31
Current WTA rank: 6 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 6
After finally reaching a Slam final at the 2024 US Open, Pegula battled through a bumpy 2025, winning just five matches at her first three Slams. But she still rose from seventh at the end of 2024 to sixth thanks to six finals appearances, three titles, a US Open semifinal run (she was achingly close to beating Sabalenka, too) and late-year wins over Sabalenka (Wuhan) and Gauff (Riyadh). She has the ultimate high-floor game, and she reminded us late in 2025 that her upside is still awfully high, too.
4. Iva Jovic
Age: 18
Current WTA rank: 35 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 55
This ranking might be infinitely too aggressive, but I’m going for it. Jovic began 2025 on the lower-level ITF circuit but finished it almost in the top 30 after winning matches at three of four Slams and taking the Guadalajara title in September. We still don’t know everything we need to know about her upside; she played four top-20 opponents in 2025 (Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini twice each) and took only one set. But she was 3-0 against the rest of the top 50. That’s a good sign. She already has one of the tour’s better returns, and if her power and serve develop as she matures, she’s bound for big things.
5. Madison Keys
Age: 30
Current WTA rank: 7 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 11
It’s hard to figure out Madison Keys at the moment. She was just about the best player in the world early in 2025, winning 18 of her first 19 matches and pocketing her first Slam title with a dramatic win over Sabalenka in Australia. But her form and focus waned from there; she lost five matches to players ranked outside the top 80, four in straight sets, and nagging injury troubles contributed to a run of four straight losses to end the year. Can Keys rediscover her drive and focus after a late-career Slam breakthrough?
6. Emma Navarro
Age: 24
Current WTA rank: 15 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 32
Navarro encountered quite the sophomore slump following her top-10 breakthrough in 2024. (When you get the tour’s attention, the tour has the tendency to raise its game against you.) She made her third straight Slam quarterfinal appearance in Australia but won just four Slam matches the rest of the year and went 2-5 against top-10 opponents. Still, three of those five losses were three-setters, and she beat Swiatek in Beijing in the fall. The upside and precision are still there, and she’s a solid rebound candidate.
7. McCartney Kessler
Age: 26
Current WTA rank: 31 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 29
She’s still waiting for a Slam breakthrough, but the former Florida Gator enjoyed a steady rise from 67th to 31st in 2025, winning a pair of titles (Hobart and Nottingham); scoring wins over Gauff (in Dubai) and Mirra Andreeva (Montreal); and nearly beating Qinwen Zheng and Karolina Muchova as well. She crafts points well — the longer a point goes, the better for Kessler — but we’ll learn a lot about her raw upside this year.
8. Julieta Pareja
Age: 16
Current WTA rank: 345 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 212
Pareja obviously has a long way to go, but she made her WTA debut in Bogota in May and immediately became the youngest tour-level semifinalist since Gauff. Her forehand and return game are already high level, and her serve has plenty of time to catch up. Obviously this is an aggressive ranking for a player with 11 career tour matches (and zero top-100 wins), but remember her name for the future.
9. Sofia Kenin
Age: 24
Current WTA rank: 28 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 53
Aside from maybe Jelena Ostapenko, almost no player in the women’s game defines a match like Kenin. As Ben Rothenberg of the Bounces newsletter wrote in August, she gets aced far more than any other top player, and she wins by far the fewest return points, too. She’s always guessing and looking to end points, playing a style that scored her a pair of top-10 wins and nearly took down Sabalenka in Rome. It can also get her bageled: She lost 6-0, 6-0 to Gauff in Miami, and she both won and lost a 6-0 set against Paolini. The fascinating former Australian Open champion has a particularly high ceiling and a particularly low floor.
10. Caty McNally
Age: 24
Current WTA rank: 63 | Current Tennis Abstract rank: 60
After two years battling elbow issues, McNally, a two-time US Open finalist in doubles, took a strong step forward in 2025. After stockpiling points on the ITF circuit, she took the Newport title in July, beating grass-court specialist Tatjana Maria in the final, and she took Swiatek (at Wimbledon), Keys (Montreal) and Rybakina (Beijing) to three sets as well. It’s not too late for a breakthrough.
Other potential breakthrough candidates: Ann Li (current WTA ranking: 37), Ashlyn Krueger (49), Hailey Baptiste (65), Peyton Stearns (50), Danielle Collins (62), Alycia Parks (101), Taylor Townsend (116), Clervie Ngounoue (192)
