The NBA’s competitive landscape hung in the balance during a potential lottery apocalypse on Monday night. The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs found themselves as the last two teams standing for the rights to Cooper Flagg on the TV broadcast. The prospect of Flagg teaming up with Victor Wembanyama would have been devastating for the idea of parity that the league has worked to cultivate, pairing the two best prospects of their generation early in their careers.
Instead, the Spurs were drawn at No. 2, meaning the Mavs were somehow the lucky winners of the lottery with only a 1.8 percent chance from the 11th spot in the drawing.
Flagg going to Dallas only months after the franchise traded Luka Doncic to the Lakers rightfully stole headlines. The Spurs landing at No. 2 overall is also a wild result given their rumored attached to the second-best available asset on the NBA marketplace this summer.
The Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes haven’t actually started yet, but it only feels like a matter of time. Antetokounmpo is reportedly “open-minded” about changing teams this offseason after the Milwaukee Bucks’ third straight playoff flameout. Giannis has flirted with leaving before, but it’s different this year after Damian Lillard’s torn Achilles and with the Bucks’ limited ammo to make another big trade to vault them back into real contention.
The Spurs were on our list of Giannis suitors from the very beginning. If Antetokounmpo wants to play with another star player and compete for championships, landing next to Wembanyama seems like his best bet even with a move from the easier Eastern Conference to the much more difficult West. Landing the No. 2 pick and the rights to Rutgers guard Dylan Harper makes their offer for Antetokounmpo a lot more appealing and gives them a legitimate chance to get him.
First, let’s add the players to make the salaries work.
Now, let’s include draft compensation. The Spurs already traded away their 2027 pick for De’Aaron Fox in Feb. That means they can’t trade their 2026 or 2028 picks because of the Stepien Rule. Fortunately, San Antonio has a few firsts from other teams, and that’s great for the Bucks, who likely want to diversify their picks portfolio.
Here’s a realistic picks package back to Milwaukee: Atlanta’s 2027 pick, Boston’s 2028 pick, the Spurs’ 2029 pick. That makes the Spurs offer look something like this:
San Antonio Spurs get:
Milwaukee Bucks get:
Stephon Castle
No. 2 overall pick in 2025
Hawks’ 2027 first-round pick
Celtics’ 2028 first-round pick
Spurs’ 2029 first-round pick
Harrison Barnes
Keldon Johnson
Should the Spurs make this offer?
There’s a case to be made that the Spurs are better off holding onto their assets for now than cashing them all in for Giannis. There’s no doubt that Giannis is a top-3 player in the world currently, but he turns 31 in Dec., and he’s endured a ton of physical pounding with a few costly injuries. Giannis doesn’t have a three-point shot, and he’s always relied heavily on his athleticism, which is scary for a player as he ages. Stephon Castle just won Rookie of the Year, Harper is a very good prospect at No. 2 this season, and that’s a lot of future picks that could be traded for a player that fits Wembanyama’s timeline better.
Still, I would do this as the Spurs.
A Wembanyama-Antetokounmpo pairing would be awesome on both ends of the floor. The defensive upside speaks for itself; this would be the best defensive foundation in the league. I like the offensive fit too if the Spurs can get a few more shooters on the roster. Wembanyama could space for Giannis, the Spurs could stagger their minutes to always have one superstar on the floor, the rebounding would be overwhelming when both are playing, and the transition opportunities caused by their defense would be highly efficient.
A tweet was going around from a Spurs fan on Tuesday that said “Castle/Harper can be something similar to SGA/J-Dub in 4-5 years.” The more likely scenario is neither of those players is ever as good as Jalen Williams, let alone Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Castle is a poor shooter who can’t even make his free throws, let alone his threes. He scored way below league-average efficiency as a rookie with 52 percent true shooting. I liked his defense coming out of UConn, but he feels best suited as a fourth starter on an elite team, and that’s not a player you balk at when Giannis is on the table. I like Harper more than Castle as a prospect, but he has some flaws too that make him less than a slam dunk at No. 2.
Spurs fans will say this is a lot to offer for Giannis. They are right, but it still might not be the best package out there.
Should the Bucks take the Spurs offer for Giannis?
I think it’s possible the Bucks can do better than this.
I named the Houston Rockets as the biggest Giannis suitor earlier this month. Houston can offer better and more appealing young players with higher-upside draft picks. If the Rockets built an offer around Amen Thompson with two of Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard, plus the Phoenix Suns’ first-round picks in 2027 and 2029, plus some of their own picks, that to me feels like the best possible offer from Milwaukee’s perspective. It’s possible the Oklahoma City Thunder get in the Giannis derby too if they don’t win the 2025 championship.
The Bucks will want a bidding war if they trade Giannis, and the Spurs landing the No. 2 pick in the lottery certainly helps. It’s likely going to take a huge package to get Antetokounmpo, and it really has to from Milwaukee’s perspective given that they don’t control their own future assets and can’t properly tank. It’s going to be a stressful decision for every involved party, but this time, it feels like it’s going to happen.
