Hall of Fame coach John Beilein led Michigan basketball to the national championship game twice last decade.
Want to know the word he used to describe those journeys? Whether it was Trey Burke’s 30-footer vs. Kansas in 2013 or Jordan Poole’s miracle heave against Houston in 2018, there’s just one word needed.
Luck.
“We had to have lucky shots to get there,” Beilein admitted to the Free Press last month when he joined for an episode of “Hail Yes.” Maybe not lucky, but the good teams find a way to be in position, but still they got have to have luck to be there.”
[ MUST LISTEN: Make “Hail Yes!” your go-to Michigan Wolverines podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify) ]
To relate the message to this 2024-25 Michigan hoops season, there are really two ways to look at this.
Option one: the Wolverines still have this luck thing down pat. Or two: they might be running the well dry a bit early.
Michigan is 8-2 in its past 10 league contests. Those eight wins have come by a combined 26 points, all by four points or fewer. The two losses, however, have come by 39 points, for a net total of being out-scored by 13 points dating back more than a month. According to KenPom, Michigan’s “luck quotient” − the disparity between the site’s expected win percentage and actual win percentage − is an additional 0.60 wins this season.
While that doesn’t sound like much, it’s No. 63 among among all 364 NCAA Division I teams and sixth best “luck” rate among all power conference teams, behind only Oregon (29), Wake Forest (31), Oklahoma State (37), Auburn (47) and TCU (59).
THE GAME: Michigan basketball survives Nebraska 49-46 to tie Big Ten lead again
Monday night’s 49-46 rock fight against Nebraska is simply the latest example.
The Wolverines, as all teams do after earning road victories in a high-major league, deserve credit. But one must also acknowledge that escaping Pinnacle Bank Arena with a win over Nebraska while playing as poorly as they did extremely fortunate.
All Cornhuskers not named Brice Williams combined to make just 7 of 41 (17.1%) of their shots while all players not named Williams or Sam Hoiberg went an astonishing 0 for 17 on 3-pointers. Yes, some of the shots were well contested, but plenty of them were wide open.
“No, this was kind of a first, I mean, in high school games kind of looked like that,” Roddy Gayle Jr. told Michigan play-by-play man Brian Boesch on “Defend The Block” after the game. “But I feel like we did a terrific job being the more physical team … I like games like that, physical, grind it out, that’s what you play college basketball for.”
It’s a pattern that has not stopped all year long.
Of Michigan’s 13 league victories, 10 have come by four points or fewer. But it’s also worth pointing out of U-M’s six losses, four have come by four points or fewer. While a 10-4 record in 14 games decided by the slimmest of margins is clearly a tremendous record, what once felt novel is now seemingly becoming a concern.
In a one-and-done format such as March Madness, teams simply can’t afford to let underdogs hang around. Despite the fact Michigan has won seven of its past eight games, it’s hard to shake the feeling that U-M is currently punching above its weight.
Not in terms of its ceiling, but the actual product that’s been on the court.
Frankly, Michigan doesn’t have the profile of a typical Big Ten title team. In 16 league games, U-M ranks No. 9 in offensive efficiency (107.3), No. 4 in defensive efficiency (104.3), No. 6 in effective field goals (52.5), No. 4 in 2-pointers (55.3%), No. 14 in 3-pointers (32.4%) and No. 18 in turnovers (19.6% of possessions), yet with four games to play, they are in full control of their own destiny.
Danny Wolf’s shooting rate has dropped, Gayle’s shooting slump has extended to 1 of 25 from long range, Sam Walters has missed three games (back) and Rubin Jones one (illness), but U-M continues to find ways to win.
Nobody is here asking U-M to apologize for it, but this is also a reminder to not be naïve. For months, Michigan has talked about not playing its best basketball and how that’s still out there for them. With only 12 days remaining in the regular season, U-M just played one of its worst games of the year.
But as has happened so many times, it still won the game. So, has it been luck or skill?
Perhaps it doesn’t matter, because as Beilein knows, both are required for historic runs.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
Next up: Scarlet Knights
Matchup: No. 13 Michigan (21-6, 13-3 Big Ten) vs. Rutgers (14-14, 7-10).
Tipoff: 9 p.m. Thursday; Crisler Center, Ann Arbor.
TV/radio: Peacock; WWJ-AM (950).
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball keeps pulling out ‘lucky’ wins: Is it sustainable?
