This statement could prove far too reactive, but Monday night felt like the dawn of a new era in the NBA.
Three teams made significant, franchise-altering jumps in the NBA Draft Lottery, teams with ample All-Stars and Hall of Famers among them. It reminded the next five teams racing to the bottom, season after season, is hell. Losing stinks, and the most powerful antidote is not a meticulous plan, but luck. Chance. That’s true in the front office, and it’s true on the court; at least it was Monday night.
Three series are currently 3-1, all in favor of the teams with fewer significant injuries. There is no way to discuss the looming outcome of Timberwolves-Warriors without first mentioning the absent Stephen Curry and hobbled Jimmy Butler, nor Celtics-Knicks without Kristaps Porzingis’ sickness and what looks to be a conference-defining injury to Jayson Tatum. And as well as the Indiana Pacers have played, it’s tough not to long for a hypothetical series in which the Cleveland Cavaliers were truly healthy from the jump.
That brings us to the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder, two teams locked in a 2-2 series that raises blood pressure if you so much as think about it. Though there are incessant tactical twists and turns in this battle, and we’ll get to a few of them, this too is a story of chance.
If Aaron Gordon misses his game-winning shot in Game 1, the whole outcome of the series is different, even if the possession-to-possession battles remain the same. Gordon personally is not lucky to have made the shot, but Denver sure is.
Yet, in Game 4, the Nuggets were unlucky Michael Porter Jr. let a potential fast-break dunk slip through his hands. They were unlucky an important Shai Gilegous-Alexander jumper struck the marriage of side-rim and backboard at the perfect angle for the ball to pop up and meekly roll in. This is, of course, why we love high-stakes sports. Guys have to make plays and get a little lucky too, and no tactician can override that. The end of this series will be awesome.
But, um, how is Oklahoma City in this position?
Denver Is Stifling The Thunder’s Simple Offense
Asking such a question is not an insult to the Nuggets, but a reminder the Thunder posted the second-best net rating of all-time, outsourcing opponents by nearly 13 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. They won 68 freaking games.
And yet, Denver has taught us a valuable lesson about Oklahoma City’s offense, which ranked third in the NBA and was 11 points per 100 better with Shai Gilgegous-Alexander and his monster usage rate on the court: It was even more of a Gilgeous-Alexander carry-job than it seemed.
Oklahoma City’s offense is wholly reliant on Gilgeous-Alexander to create the initial advantage, often in isolation and occasionally with a ball-screen. This is not easy to play against, and Christian Braun deserves much praise for his individual defense, but it is easy to scheme against.
Whether in man coverage or a beloved zone which has slowed all of Oklahoma City’s decision-making, the Nuggets’ help defense is unpretentious against Gilgeous-Alexander. They show early, and they come early:
Even on a rare switch against Porter, there is no driving room for Gilgeous-Alexander. He is forced to take a stepback 18-footer, which he definitely can make, but doesn’t. In this series, NBA.com tracks 65 percent of his shots as being pull-up jumpers, up 11 percent from the regular season, at the cost of attempts at the rim. In Games 3 and 4, he shot just 15-of-41 from the field.
In stark contrast to his Canadian countryman Jamal Murray on the other side, the Thunder have such limited ways to get him involved. Unlike Denver with Murray, Oklahoma City runs few off-ball actions to get him some steam downhill; he rarely sets an off-ball screen to try and divert attention. Gilgeous-Alexander’s offense is stationary and playoff defenses can scheme intensely for that.
Denver has bet against the secondary creation of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, among others, and won big. On this critical Game 1 possession, Denver essentially funnels the ball to Williams and he can’t make it pay:
However, Denver has also bet against Gilegous Alexander’s interior passing and the Thunder’s collective interior scoring. If this sounds familiar, that’s because it is; I recently wrote about the Golden State Warriors doing the same to the Minnesota Timberwolves as a worthy test to their offense.
Gilgeous-Alexander has missed quite a few potential lobs or dump-off passes for layups in this series. He seems far less comfortable passing through thickets of limbs to the rim and instead prefers kicking the ball out to the perimeter for a potential three. For example, in zone defense, Denver’s lowest guys can play up on drives near the free-throw line and not worry not about the ball being passed behind them.
Is The Solution Lineup-Based?
Here is one quick sequence to explain why Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is so fond of his double-big look:
double-big defense vs. single-big defense for OKC: pic.twitter.com/lkwqm5QrCf
— Lucas Kaplan (@LucasKaplan_) May 13, 2025
On the first play, toward the end of regulation in Game 3, Hartenstein does a fantastic job guarding Nikola Jokić down low. But Holmgren first deters him from a shot and, ultimately, contests the one he does take. On the second play, Jokic rolls by Hartenstein after rejecting a screen and finishing with no Holmgren in the paint is much easier.
So, why was Holmgren out of the game to begin with, especially starting overtime? Well, the double-big lineup has been rough offensively and this possession encapsulates how:
kind of sums up OKC’s double-big offense so far.
Both guys stand in the same spot while SGA gets trapped, he outlets to Chet, who has a weak drive in part because Denver disregards Isaiah Hartenstein in the short-roll: pic.twitter.com/wIaoscYFKW
— Lucas Kaplan (@LucasKaplan_) May 13, 2025
Hartenstein has defended Jokić well — better than Holmgren, who is in help anyway — and that’s why he started Game 3’s overtime. But man, aside from a couple of patented floaters and short-roll lobs, Hartenstein has hindered the Thunder’s offense all postseason. It’s especially true against Denver, where he floats around the paint and simply invites his man (often Jokić) to plug up driving lanes even more aggressively. Holmgren, for all his struggles, at least draws semi-interested closeouts on the perimeter.
The Thunder have scored seven fewer points per 100 possessions with Hartenstein on the floor these playoffs. Their conversion rate on two-pointers is nearly 10 percent worse (yikes), and it matches the eye test. Yet, venturing away from double-big is likely off the table for Daigneault, who did not reduce their minutes together in Game 4, despite obvious Game 3 struggles.
If there is a rotational change to juice the Thunder’s offense, it has to be a move away from Luguentz Dort. No clip is needed here, the Nuggets simply don’t guard him, helping to clog the lane on Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. Not only is Dort shooting just 25 percent from three this series, but he’s also not a threat to do damage when he puts the ball on the floor.
But, unlike the bigs, this shouldn’t be a hard decision for Daigneault because Dort is not providing much defensive value either. The Nuggets can scrape him off Murray nearly any time they want:
OKC has to bench Dort in part because Denver can easily scrape him off Jamal Murray with actions like these.
He’s just not making up for the offense on the other end: pic.twitter.com/Mp6jcejLBz
— Lucas Kaplan (@LucasKaplan_) May 13, 2025
Cason Wallace has had some excellent reps defending Murray and has far more offensive juice, not to mention Alex Caruso, who still hasn’t seen a 30-minute game in the playoffs.
It’s Not All Bad For The Thunder
Let’s be clear, the Nuggets deserve a ton of credit for stifling the Thunder offense like this and turning the series into a defensive slugfest. Head coach David Adelman continues to make effective substitutions and mix in plenty of zone defense. He does not look like a rookie head coach.
But the Thunder deserve their praise too, specifically for their defense against the three-time MVP:
OKC’s defense on the BITW pic.twitter.com/pvGRB00uRY
— Pitless (@pitlessball) May 12, 2025
As it turns out, their maddening activity does not just work against perimeter players trying to drive the ball. Known for ball pressure in the regular season, they’ve communicated deftly on off-ball cuts and taken away all the freebies Denver normally gets against defensive breakdowns.
They’ve made Jokić think, then pause and think again about how he might like to attack their defense. Since his epic Game 1, Big Honey is shooting an unfathomable 21-of-63 from the floor; sure, he’s too preoccupied with the referees and has missed some bunnies, but there is no explanation which could make it sound less impressive for Oklahoma City.
Beware, though, of a big Game 5 for Jokić Tuesday night. He dialed up the aggressiveness in the second half of Game 4 and looked closer to, if not exactly like, the man we know and love:
Jokić may have realized in the second half of G4 that he has to be *less* deliberate in iso. Just go.
Gets two good looks going faster on the latter two clips, OKC’s late help is just that, late: pic.twitter.com/A16LUawIRB
— Lucas Kaplan (@LucasKaplan_) May 13, 2025
Perhaps, the Thunder have disappointed during their first playoff run as clear favorites. Maybe, it’s the predictability of their struggles, given Williams and Holmgren’s offensive warts and the monotony of Gilgeous-Alexander attacks. Or, maybe, a 68-win season will just do that to you. This series, after all, is still tied 2-2 with home-court advantage tilted toward the panhandle state.
In Game 5, they have to play faster, especially if their two main bigs and/or the surprisingly good Jaylin Williams is on the floor. Transition attacks allow Gilgeous-Alexander to play in open space and may encourage the All-Star Williams to get all the way to the rim rather than settle for elbow jumpers, which he’s struggled with so far.
Dort must play fewer minutes. The Thunder must move and cut around Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives to the best of their ability, even if it’s just a shooter relocating to the corner or Hartenstein cutting from the dunker spot to the rim for an alley-oop.
Above all, they must play better and get a little lucky. Those 68 wins are long, long in the rearview mirror, and all that’s ahead are two measly wins. They won’t be easy.
