With the strength of college football conferences such as the Big Ten or SEC, predicting win totals has become more difficult than ever.
Much of it has also become predicated on schedules. It doesn’t always matter how good you are, although being good helps.
Having a favorable schedule is just as important. Indiana taught us that last season.
Looking ahead to 2025, keeping that in mind, here are five college football teams that will exceed their win total projections.
(Win total over/under projections via FanDuel)
Oklahoma Sooners (6.5) | Schedule
Oklahoma’s schedule isn’t easy. It’s manageable, though. The Sooners need to beat Michigan in an early-season matchup. That and road trips to Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina will be the deciding factor.
Oklahoma might have added the best quarterback (John Mateer) and the best running back (Jaydn Ott) from the transfer portal.
What’s interesting is that Ott and Mateer were teammates with California last season. They are proven Power-4 producers. The defense will be just fine with Brent Venables, and a winning season (seven wins) is a reasonable expectation.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.5) | Schedule
Matt Rhule’s teams have a history of taking a big jump in wins during his third season, at least in college football.
Nebraska won seven games last season and were 6-6 during the regular season, but did that with a true freshman quarterback.
Dylan Raiola is more seasoned now. Nebraska has surrounded the starting quarterback with more weapons and a better offensive line.
The Huskers have also replaced their special teams coordinator and hired former Houston/West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen as their offensive coordinator.
Dasan McCullough (EDGE/LB) will prove to be one of the most underrated additions from the transfer portal. The schedule also features just two preseason top-25 teams (Michigan at home, Penn State on the road), so eight or nine wins is more than plausible.
Georgia Bulldogs (9.5) | Schedule
The oddsmakers should be higher on the Bulldogs. The defending SEC champions will have a new starting quarterback, but Gunner Stockton did start the Sugar Bowl. He will have experience under his belt.
The Bulldogs will also have an elite defense. Georgia beat Texas on the road last season, and also on a neutral field to win the SEC title.
This season, they will welcome Alabama and Texas to Athens. Road trips to Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech are the most difficult, but the Dawgs could drop one of those three, plus a home game against Bama or Texas, and still get 10 wins.
Clemson Tigers (9.5) | Schedule
Dabo Swinney’s team is a dark horse contender for the national title. The Tigers return 16 starters, including quarterback Cade Klubnik, from a team that went 10-4 last season and reached the College Football Playoff.
There are seven starters back on defense. Four of the five starters are also back on the offensive line.
The schedule is manageable, too. A home game against LSU and a road game against South Carolina are probably the most difficult tests.
Road trips to Louisville and North Carolina headline the ACC schedule, making 10 wins a reasonable target.
USC Trojans (7.5) | Schedule
Lincoln Riley hasn’t forgotten how to coach, but he’ll have to prove that this season. The Trojans play Illinois, Nebraska, Oregon and Notre Dame on the road. Michigan, UCLA and Iowa are among the toughest home games.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava played well down the stretch last season. If Riley can help him replicate that, and if the defense is improved with a new defensive coordinator, eight wins shouldn’t be that big of a hurdle.
