Preseason polls are built on educated guesses. Some are more educated than others.
The first Coaches Poll Top 25 has Ohio State at No. 1, followed by Oregon and Georgia. Most of the rankings are defensible, even if fans will spend the next few weeks arguing otherwise. A few teams received far more trust than they deserved.
Here are the three that stand out.
No. 4 Texas
Texas was No. 1 in the preseason poll last year. We all saw how that worked out.
The Longhorns finished 10-3 and missed the College Football Playoff. That is not an embarrassing record, but it was a long way from what was expected. Apparently, one disappointing season was not enough to scare voters away. Texas is back at No. 4.
Arch Manning is a major reason why. His season started slowly before he found his footing, throwing 15 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final eight games. The improvement was real. So was the uneven play that came before it.
Texas added more talent around him, including wide receiver Cam Coleman. The roster looks terrific on paper. It usually does.
The problem is the schedule. Texas must play Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee. Ranking the Longhorns fourth assumes Manning’s late-season surge will continue and all those new pieces will fit immediately.
Could that happen? Sure. Should voters already count on it? Probably not.
No. 8 Texas A&M
Texas A&M went 11-2 and made the playoff last season. That record comes with a few warning labels.
The Aggies earned an excellent road win over Notre Dame. Beyond that, their regular-season résumé was surprisingly thin. Seven wins came against teams that either finished with losing records or later fired their head coaches. Missouri was the only other team they beat that finished above .500.
Then the Aggies stumbled when the schedule became tougher.
They lost their final two games, including a home playoff game against Miami. Quarterback Marcel Reed had five turnovers and no touchdowns during those losses. It was an ugly ending, and No. 8 suggests voters have already forgotten it.
Texas A&M returns nine starters, so another good season is possible. Reed could also take another step. Both are fair reasons to keep the Aggies inside the top 15.
The top eight? Let them earn that back first.
No. 17 Penn State
Penn State did well to hire Matt Campbell. That does not mean he walked into an easy situation.
James Franklin’s departure for Virginia Tech brought considerable roster movement with it. Campbell responded by bringing roughly two dozen former Iowa State players to Happy Valley, including quarterback Rocco Becht.
Becht is experienced and should help Penn State avoid a complete reset. Still, importing a large chunk of Iowa State’s roster does not automatically produce a ranked Big Ten contender.
Campbell has to install his system, replace departed talent and figure out which pieces translate against a different level of weekly competition. That will take time, even if Penn State’s friendly schedule hides some of the early problems.
The Nittany Lions could finish inside the Coaches Poll Top 25. Starting them at No. 17 feels like voters ranked the helmet, admired the new coach and decided the messy transition would handle itself.
That is quite a lot to assume in August.
