Real Madrid will look to make home advantage count when they host fierce rivals Atlético in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie on Tuesday. Look ahead to the game at the Santiago Bernabeu with our Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer gives Real Madrid a 49.5% chance of victory, compared to Atlético’s 25.2%.
Real Madrid have lost just one of their last 17 Champions League knockout-stage matches (W11 D5).
Atlético Madrid have lost their previous three away knockout-stage encounters in the Champions League.
History will certainly be on Real Madrid‘s side when they face off with city rivals Atlético Madrid in a mouth-watering last-16 Champions League tie.
Los Blancos have dominated their city rivals in Europe, winning all five previous knockout-stage encounters, including two finals. Tuesday’s clash will mark the 10th Champions League meeting between the sides – only Chelsea vs Liverpool has featured as many between teams from the same nation.
Madrid boast an exceptional record in all-Spanish knockout ties, having progressed in 10 of their 12 such encounters. Their only defeats came against Barcelona (1960-61 last 16, 2010-11 semi-finals).
Their recent record in knockout clashes is extraordinary too. They have lost only one of their past 17 knockout-stage matches (W11 D5) and have not been beaten in their previous nine (W5, D4) since their solitary defeat in this run – a 4-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City in the 2022-23 semi-finals.
It will come as absolutely no surprise that Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are the most likely dangermen for Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
Mbappé has 27 goal involvements from 32 appearances in the knockout stages (24 goals, 3 assists) and netted a hat-trick against Man City in his last outing in the play-off round. It represented his second knockout-stage hat-trick – only Cristiano Ronaldo (4) has more.
Vinicius has nine goal involvements in eight appearances in this season’s competition (7 goals, 2 assists) and is looking for 10+ for the fourth consecutive edition. Ronaldo is the only other player to have done so in as many as four seasons overall for Real Madrid (8).
Atléti’s record in Champions League knockout away games is a concern. They have lost their last three such matches, their longest streak since a five-game run between 1959 and 1971. That stretch included a 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid in April 1959.
Julián Alvarez has registered six goals in eight appearances in the Champions League this season. Only two players have ever scored more in their first Champions League season as an Atléti player – Diego Costa (8) in 2013-14 and Vava (8) in 1958-59.
Rodrigo De Paul has been influential in midfield, leading Atleti in completed passes (374), line-breaking passes (65), and progressive carries (63). Only Bayern’s Joshua Kimmich (20) has broken opposition defensive lines with a pass more often than De Paul (19) this season.
Madrid will be without Jude Bellingham (suspension), while Éder Militão, Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos, and Jesús Vallejo are unavailable due to injury.
Atlético are likely to be missing Koke and César Azpilicueta, both of whom are battling for fitness ahead of the trip to the Bernabéu.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Head-to-Head
The omens are not particularly good for Atleti, who have faced their rivals on five previous occasions in the knockout stages of the European Cup/Champions League, including finals.
In each of those showdowns it is Los Blancos who have emerged victorious, with the most recent coming in the 2016-17 season.
However, there is a glimmer of hope that the tide may be turning in their favour given they have won the last two European fixtures between the sides – a 2-1 triumph in the semi-final second leg back in 2016-17 and 4-2 in the 2018 Super Cup.
Before those victories, Real Madrid had lost only of the first eight encounters (W5, D2).
Both of their games in La Liga this season have been drawn 1-1.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid’s historical dominance and home advantage give them a 49.5% chance of victory n the night, according to the Opta supercomputer. Atléti have a 25.2% chance, with a draw occurring in 25.3% of simulations.
In terms of overall tournament odds, Madrid are only the fifth most likely team to win the Champions League (9.8%), but their chances of progressing past Atlético stand at 57.6%.
Atlético have just a 4.2% chance of lifting the trophy, with a 42.4% probability of reaching the quarter-finals.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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