NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch 2025: Hey Indiana and Arkansas — beware of bid thieves

(Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Welcome to the first March bracket and the last bracket that will be devoid of actual, real-life automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament.

Did you enjoy reading that sentence as much as I enjoyed writing it? The next one of these comes Monday, and by then we will have Ohio Valley, Big South, ASUN, Missouri Valley and Summit champions — with Sun Belt and SoCon auto bids to be earned that night.

From March 13-16, this will be published daily. On that final day, known in some corners as Selection Sunday, we will accurately project all 68 teams in the field, guaranteed. One nasty comment per miss will be permitted. The question I’d like to submit today — other than, why do you have to be nasty in the comments? — is a March favorite: How many bid thieves are we talking about this year?

The bid thief, for those who don’t know, is the team that wouldn’t be an at-large selection but wins its conference tournament to squeeze an at-large team out of the field. The most vulnerable teams in this snapshot, the last four in, are Arkansas, Indiana, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Teams like that and those just ahead and behind them — the Georgias, Ohio States, Texases and North Carolinas — need a lockdown on bid crime in the next 12 days.

The bubble is weak. So weak that the annual talk of expanding the tournament is even more nauseating than usual. For a much more thorough look at the bubble and where teams stand, check out Jim Root’s Bubble Watch.

The only conferences that can produce bid thieves, I believe, are the ones that have had multiple teams in this bracket all season, plus possibly the Atlantic 10 if VCU doesn’t win the conference tournament. The Rams could have a case if they win out until the title game. UC San Diego would merit discussion with a title-game loss to UC Irvine — Anteaters over Tritons.

But I’m not optimistic. And it’s not happening for Drake, unfortunately, if Ben McCollum’s bunch takes an Arch Madness upset. Here’s a candidate from each of the viable leagues that could go all Gerry McNamara on this thing:

SEC: South Carolina. Look, it’s one of two teams, considering the other 14 are in various stages of at-large pursuit, and I’m not taking LSU. It’s been a miserable season for the Gamecocks, but they just routed Arkansas and have taken Auburn and Florida to the limit, after beating Clemson in the nonleague.

Big Ten: Rutgers. Only 15 of this monstrosity’s 18 teams get in, and the Scarlet Knights may have to beat Minnesota in the finale to make it to Indy. If they do, first-round freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, plus desperation, could be a dangerous concoction.

Big 12: Kansas State. Remember when the Wildcats were making an at-large charge? Yeah, that died. But this team has wins over Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas, and it’s capable of a run if Coleman Hawkins can return from a knee injury.

Big East: Villanova. Eric Dixon’s shot is a weapon, and Kyle Neptune’s job security is an incentive.

ACC: Virginia. The Hoos are looking a bit more capable, and as boring as ever, of late.

Mountain West: Colorado State. This team and Boise State give the league five at-large hopefuls. But the Rams are probably going to have to win the whole darn thing.

WCC: San Francisco. Bill Russell’s alma mater is the only team to beat Saint Mary’s in league play.

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(Photo of John Calipari: Nelson Chenault / Imagn Images)