Ranking the top contenders at the US Open 2025

The last, and loudest, Grand Slam event of the tennis season is upon us. The storylines overflow as the US Open gets underway this weekend.

Assuming Jannik Sinner has recovered from the illness that wrecked this past week’s Cincinnati final against Carlos Alcaraz, the new big two of men’s tennis is overwhelmingly favored to make it three straight Slam finals against each other.

Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka is a brilliant 67-13 on the season but has fallen short late in all three Slams and must fend off a torrid Iga Swiatek (who has won 14 of her past 15 matches), Coco Gauff (who toppled her in the French Open final) and countless other challengers from a women’s tour that is as deep as it has ever been.

All of ESPN. All in one place.

Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now

Of course, while we think we know how the tournament might play out, things rarely go as planned at the US Open. That can be a bad thing if you’re, say, a legend going for a calendar Slam (Serena Williams in 2015, Novak Djokovic in 2021). It can be an awfully good thing if you’re an up-and-comer ready to make an out-of-nowhere run (Naomi Osaka in 2018, Bianca Andreescu in 2019, Emma Raducanu in 2021).

The chaos begins immediately with a tantalizing first round. On the men’s side, we get matches like Alcaraz vs. big-serving veteran Reilly Opelka, four-time champion Djokovic vs. tricky young American Learner Tien and 10-seed Lorenzo Musetti vs. big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. On the women’s side, we get the ageless Venus Williams vs. two-time semifinalist Karolina Muchova, big-hitting young Canadian Victoria Mboko vs. two-time Slam champ Barbora Krejcikova and the retiring Petra Kvitova vs. veteran Diane Parry.

Whether chaos or chalk awaits us over the next fortnight, let’s get to know the names that are most likely to define the tournament.

The favorites

Jannik Sinner

ESPN BET odds: +115 | Tennis Abstract odds: 44.4%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Jack Draper or No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals)

Over the past year, the 24-year-old Italian is 56-5 — 1-4 against Alcaraz (including the Cincinnati retirement) and 55-1 against everyone else. He is 6-foot-3 and can get from corner to corner in milliseconds. His groundstrokes are so pure that he seems to almost hit accidental winners from neutral situations at times. He is absolutely dynamite, and while his draw won’t be a complete breeze and he might still be working his way back to full strength, Sinner might not have to shift into fifth gear until a potential 2024 semifinal rematch against Draper.

Carlos Alcaraz

ESPN BET odds: +155 | Tennis Abstract odds: 34.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Ben Shelton (quarterfinals)

That’s right, the combined title odds from Tennis Abstract are Sinner/Alcaraz 79%, the other 126 men 21%. Alcaraz’s draw is dotted with interesting challenges — Opelka in the first round, then maybe 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev in the fourth and boisterous American Shelton in the quarters — but when you’ve won 39 of your past 41 matches and you’ve made seven straight finals, as the 22-year-old Alcaraz has, you get the benefit of the doubt. These two men have dramatically separated themselves from the rest of the sport.

US Open Men’s Odds

Iga Swiatek

ESPN BET odds: +270 | Tennis Abstract odds: 25.7%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Amanda Anisimova (quarterfinals)

Remember when we were pretending Swiatek was having a bad year? It was only poor by Swiatek’s standards — even before her Wimbledon title run, she had reached seven semifinals and two finals — but it’s moot regardless because that funk is over. Swiatek enters the US Open having won 28 of her past 31 sets, and if she wins this tournament and Sabalenka loses before the quarterfinals (admittedly unlikely), she could move back to No. 1, where she spent most of 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Aryna Sabalenka

ESPN BET odds: +280 | Tennis Abstract odds: 25.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini or No. 9 Elena Rybakina (quarterfinals)

The defending US Open champion was the betting favorite before the draw, but her odds fell below Swiatek’s after she was handed a potential path of 2021 finalist Leylah Fernandez in the third round, 14-seed Clara Tauson (the only person to beat Swiatek in the past two months) in the fourth and 9-seed Rybakina (who swept Sabalenka in Cincinnati) in the quarters. Sabalenka is the surest thing in the sport, with 10 semifinal appearances in her past 11 Slams, but a title repeat in New York will take some work.

Coco Gauff

ESPN BET odds: +750 | Tennis Abstract odds: 9.6%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys (quarterfinals)

The 2025 season has been a roller coaster for the 21-year-old, who lost 6 of 11 matches at one point early on, then rolled through the clay-court season with three finals appearances and her first French Open title, only to drop 4 of 8 matches since. Her serve betrayed her again this summer, and she has shaken up her coaching staff once again. Her draw is tricky, but getting rid of double faults alone would make her a contender.

Former champs

Novak Djokovic

ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 4.5%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Taylor Fritz (quarterfinals)

The all-time men’s Slam champion has become a majors-only player at this point — his past two tournaments were the French Open and Wimbledon. The 38-year-old made the semis at both, of course, so it’s hard to question the approach. He could again be the favorite to win his quarter, which is loaded with Americans (Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Alex Michelsen, Sebastian Korda), and in a nice change of pace, he didn’t land in Sinner’s half of the draw this time. (Sinner pummeled him in straight sets in Paris and London.) Djokovic has nothing to prove at this point, but another finals run might not be out of the question if he can kick the rust off.

Naomi Osaka

ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Gauff (fourth round)

The two-time US Open champ reached the finals in Montreal this summer — her first 1000-level final since Miami 2022 — sweeping Jelena Ostapenko, Elina Svitolina and Tauson in the process. She’s 27-12 on the year (6-4 against Top 30 opponents), she seems to have rediscovered a high-level return game, and at No. 23, she’s seeded at a Slam for the first time in nearly four years. She’ll be favored in every match until a potential meeting with Gauff.

All of ESPN. All in one place.

Watch the US Open and much more in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Stream every match

Daniil Medvedev

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.4%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (fourth round)

From the 2019 US Open through the 2024 Australian Open, Medvedev made the finals in 6 of 10 hard-court Slams, winning the 2021 US Open in the process. He has found life tricky in 2025, however; 1-3 in Slams and has spent most of his recent months outside the ATP Top 10. In an attempt to rediscover his rhythm on hard courts this summer, he instead lost to Alexei Popyrin (No. 26 at the time), Adam Walton (No. 85) and Dalibor Svrcina (No. 120). Might the magic return in New York?

Emma Raducanu

ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.7%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Elena Rybakina (second round)

Injuries and crushing expectations have weighed the 22-year-old Raducanu down since her 2021 US Open title romp, but the vibes are improving. She’s up to 35th in the WTA rankings, her best ranking since 2022. She swept Osaka on the way to the semifinals in Washington, and in her most recent match, she lost an epic to Sabalenka, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6. Her momentum will be tested in New York: She might have to beat both Rybakina and No. 7 Paolini just to get a Sabalenka rematch in the quarterfinals.

Venus Williams

ESPN BET odds: +50000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys (fourth round)

Her two US Open titles (2000, 2001) are older than many of the women in the draw, she has less to prove than almost anyone on the planet. But the 45-year-old showed up in Washington in July and pummeled Peyton Stearns (No. 35 at the time), serving up a truckload of aces in the process. She’s now the second-oldest woman to ever win a tour match, she’s hungry for more and she’ll play in maybe the biggest headline match of the first round against Muchova.

Others: Marin Cilic (2014 champion, +20000)

They also love New York

Madison Keys

ESPN BET odds: +1800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.9%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Gauff (quarterfinals)

At age 30, Keys is enjoying her best season since 2016 — she has won 37 matches (most since 2016) with a 0.755 win percentage (best ever), and she of course grabbed her first Slam title back in Australia. The two-time US Open semifinalist (and 2017 finalist) reached the semis in only one of her past 10 tournaments, but her draw is pretty solid until at least the fourth round (where she could face either Muchova or 21-seed Linda Noskova … or Venus!).

Ben Shelton

ESPN BET odds: +2000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alcaraz (quarterfinals)

He lost to Sinner in Australia, to Alcaraz in Paris and to Sinner again at Wimbledon. Shelton’s return game still lacks, but his serve and his brilliant attacking game have moved him up to No. 6 in the ATP rankings. He’s becoming a consistent force in Slams, too, reaching at least the fourth round in five of his past six. Landing in Alcaraz’s quarter was unfortunate, but he’ll be favored in each of his first four matches.

ESPN BET odds: +2200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.0%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur or No. 9 Karen Khachanov (quarterfinals)

The 2020 finalist is consistent enough with his serve and sufferball capabilities that he has become reasonably upset-proof (first-round Wimbledon loss aside), but he’s 2-5 against top-10 opponents in 2025, and one of those wins was an injury retirement against Djokovic at the Australian Open. That said, he won’t face a top-10 opponent until the quarterfinals at the earliest.

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.0%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Mirra Andreeva or No. 10 Emma Navarro (quarterfinals)

It has been an odd year for the 31-year-old. Outside of Slams, she’s 32-13 with five finals appearances and three titles. But since finally breaking through to reach the US Open final this past year, she has stunk in Slams, winning only five matches in the first three of 2025. She comes to New York having lost four of her past six matches, too, and now she has a ton of rankings points to defend. Her draw is manageable. Her form? Iffy.

Taylor Fritz

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.6%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Djokovic (quarterfinals)

Like so many others in the men’s draw, Fritz has hit his head on a Sinner-and-Alcaraz ceiling; over the past year, he’s 53-17 against everyone else on tour but 0-5 against the big two (total sets: big two 12, Fritz 1). For that matter, he’s 0-10 lifetime against Djokovic, his potential quarterfinal opponent, as well. Still, he is serving as well as anyone not named Sinner, his pre-Djokovic draw is friendly, and he returns to New York confident after this past year’s run to the final.

Jack Draper

ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)

When his body cooperates, the 2024 US Open semifinalist looks like one of the prime candidates to turn the men’s big two into a big three. He beat Alcaraz at Indian Wells, and he’s 28-7 against anyone not named Alcaraz and Sinner in 2025. But this will be his first singles tournament since he injured his left arm at Wimbledon. He could face big-hitting Canadian Gabriel Diallo in the third round, too, so he won’t have much time to play his way into form.

Others: Emma Navarro (2024 semifinalist, +3300), Alex De Minaur (two-time quarterfinalist, +4000), Elina Svitolina (2019 semifinalist, +4000), Belinda Bencic (2019 semifinalist, +5000), Leylah Fernandez (2021 finalist, +5000), Karolina Muchova (2023 semifinalist, +5000), Casper Ruud (2022 finalist, +8000), Frances Tiafoe (two-time semifinalist, +8000), Felix Auger-Aliassime (2021 semifinalist, +10000), Beatriz Haddad Maia (2024 quarterfinalist, +10000), Karen Khachanov (2022 semifinalist, +10000), Victoria Azarenka (three-time finalist, +15000), Gael Monfils (2016 semifinalist, +20000), Maria Sakkari (2021 semifinalist, +20000), Caroline Garcia (2022 semifinalist, +40000), Pablo Carreno Busta (two-time semifinalist, +100000)

The list of women’s contenders in 2025 is endless

Mirra Andreeva

ESPN BET odds: +1000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.3%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (fourth round)

Progress is rarely linear; that’s something Mirra Andreeva has certainly had to internalize in 2025. The 18-year-old won back-to-back 1000-level hard-court events in February (Dubai) and March (Indian Wells), beating Sabalenka, Swiatek (twice) and Rybakina (twice) in the process. But she is only 17-9 since, and she has spent the past month attempting to recover from a nasty-looking rolled ankle in Montreal. If she can kick into gear quickly enough to beat big-hitting Alycia Parks in the first round, her draw could turn out to be favorable. But we’ll see what kind of form she has to offer.

Women’s US Open Odds

Elena Rybakina

ESPN BET odds: +1000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 4.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini (fourth round)

Sabalenka had to let out a small groan when she saw Rybakina land in her quarter. Rybakina’s form has been up and down in 2025, and she is 5-5 all-time at the US Open. But she has won 8 of her past 10 matches and 5 of her past 8 against Sabalenka, including a 6-1, 6-4 pummeling in Cincinnati. (Of course, she might have to first get past Paolini, against whom she has lost three of four.)

Victoria Mboko

ESPN BET odds: +2000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.8%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third round)

Sofia Kenin, Gauff, Rybakina and Osaka have combined to win eight Slam titles, seven on hard courts. Mboko beat all four of them on her way to the Montreal title earlier this month. Her relentless power blew Kenin and Gauff off the court and wore down Rybakina and Osaka in three sets as well, and her poise was otherworldly for a teenager. She landed in the same quarter as Andreeva, Pegula and Navarro — aka, the “iffy form” quarter — and if she can handle expectations and hype, she could make her first big Slam run in New York.

Amanda Anisimova

ESPN BET odds: +2000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.6%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Swiatek (quarterfinals)

Her incredible Wimbledon run ended with a 6-0, 6-0 splat against Swiatek in the final, but Anisimova has still made huge moves in 2025 and could finish the year in the WTA Top 10 for the first time. Is there still gas in the tank? The 23-year-old is 2-2 since Wimbledon and 3-5 all-time at the US Open. Can she at least play her way to a quarterfinal rematch with Swiatek?

Jasmine Paolini

ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.4%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Rybakina (fourth round)

After reaching back-to-back Slam finals in 2024, the 29-year-old has gone 6-3 in Slams this year. But she has still made five semifinals and two finals in the past six months to remain eighth in the world, and her 3-0 record against Gauff in that span could have set her up nicely with the right draw. Instead, she landed in Sabalenka’s quarter; she has dropped eight straight sets against the world No. 1.

Others: Ekaterina Alexandrova (+4000), Jelena Ostapenko (+5000), Barbora Krejcikova (+5000), Liudmila Samsonova (+5000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Clara Tauson (+5000), Marketa Vondrousova (+5000)

Men’s breakthrough (and rebound) candidates

ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Djokovic (fourth round)

Rune remains both young (22) and maddening. He is 5-4 against top-10 opponents this year and swept Alcaraz in the Barcelona final in April. He is also 4-4 against players ranked outside the top 100 and has gone one-and-done in six events in 2025. He could take down Djokovic and Fritz and surge to the semis — and he could lose to giant-killer Botic Van De Zandschulp in the first round.

ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Fritz (fourth round)

The sweet-swinging 19-year-old has learned exactly how much of a grind it can be on tour this year. He reached four finals from December through March and won his first ATP-level title in February, but he is also 8-10 since late March. And since beating Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, he has gone 0-6 against top-15 opponents. His game remains tantalizing, but he needs to get his legs back underneath him.

ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alcaraz (second round)

The 26-year-old Spaniard was outside the top 60 at the start of the year, but he has charged to 18th this summer thanks to a run of 11 wins (two against the top 10) in 17 matches. He had back-to-back retirements in Toronto and Cincinnati after fatigue kicked in, but he has gotten some rest, is excellent on hard courts and could test Alcaraz in Round 2.

Lorenzo Musetti

ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%

First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Draper (fourth round)

Musetti was enjoying a career season and reached the French Open semifinals, but since having to retire against Alcaraz with a thigh injury in Paris, he has played only five matches and lost four. The draw hasn’t done him any favors. He must face big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round, and if he survives that, he could see Draper in the fourth round and Sinner in the quarters.

Others: Andrey Rublev (+6600), Alexander Bublik (+8000), Jakub Mensik (+8000), Tommy Paul (+8000), Stefanos Tsitsipas (+8000)