Situation is everything in the college basketball transfer portal. The infrastructure can help determine whether a transfer is a success or a failure. It’s heightened even more in the free agency era with big-money deals on the table.
“Nobody is good enough to pick the wrong school,” Texas Tech general manager Kellen Buffington says.
Wise counsel.
Let’s dive into four players who did not live up to the hype last year but have pivoted to a new opportunity. Can they get back on track? As usual, the data rarely lies.
Portal travels: From St. John’s to Wisconsin to Kansas to Ole Miss
The scoop: AJ Storr has made a career out of debatable school-hopping, so it’s ironic that his final portal stint may have resulted in his best decision yet. Storr is leaving a Kansas offense that had the lowest isolation rate in college basketball last year for an Ole Miss club that rated in the 98th percentile in isolation frequency, per Synergy.
The ‘Do Him’ offense is right up Storr’s alley, and it’s been a staple of Chris Beard’s teams for a decade.
Frequency of isolation possessions by a Chris Beard-coached team, according to Synergy:
2024-25 Ole Miss: 98th percentile 2023-24 Ole Miss: 99th percentile2022-23 Texas: 62nd percentile2021-22 Texas Tech: 55th percentile2020-21 Texas Tech: 98th percentile2019-20 Texas Tech: 95th percentile2018-19 Texas Tech: 97th percentile2017-18 Texas Tech: 99th percentile2016-17 Texas Tech: 93rd percentile2015-16 Arkansas Little Rock: 99th percentile
This scheme, combined with the opportunity on this depth chart, just screams major bounceback for a talented wing who was buried in Bill Self’s doghouse. There is no player on this new-look Ole Miss roster who is as proven as Storr. He should saunter into a sky-high usage rate, and Storr should be chomping at the bit to get back to his bucket-getting ways.
Ole Miss projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F Corey Chest, G Kezza Giffa, G Travis Perry, G Eduardo Klafke, F Niko Bundalo
Portal travels: From Belmont to North Carolina to Minnesota
The scoop: Tyson’s single season at North Carolina was a downright disaster. He lost all confidence and could rarely find his footing. He didn’t handle the adjustment from Belmont to the ACC very well, and he struggled mightily as a stand-in-the-corner spacer while UNC’s guards tried to make something out of nothing.
After being one of the biggest names in the 2024 portal cycle, Tyson racked up more DNPs (six) than double-figure scoring outings (one).
It was frustrating and a little embarrassing when an open corner trey ricocheted off the backboard. Change was necessary, so Tyson hit the portal, waited around for a while and eventually landed at Minnesota without much fanfare.
For basketball reasons, this looks like a wise decision.
New Gophers’ coach Niko Medved is revered as one of the top offensive minds in college basketball. His precise system is chock-full of cuts, misdirection and ball movement. Medved’s last two Colorado State offenses rated in the 99th percentile and 87th percentile nationally in creating unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.
It looks like a wise decision for Tyson to prioritize a scheme like that because he’s a career 57% sniper on … open catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (69 for 122).
But he was more than just a stationary shooter at Belmont. The 6-7, 200-pound wing can be an off-movement shooter who can come off handoffs or pindowns ready to fire. He can get into the middle of the floor for pull-ups. He was a high-volume rebounder at Belmont, too. Why can’t he find that again at Minnesota? Medved’s first roster won’t jump off the page at anybody, but it’s a sharp mix of complementary skill sets. Medved has done a shrewd job of mixing downhill playmakers (like Langston Reynolds and Chansey Willis Jr.) with shooters (like Bobby Durkin, Isaac Asuma and Tyson).
Minnesota projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F B.J. Omot, G Langston Reynolds, C Nehemiah Turner, G Chance Stephens
Portal travels: From North Carolina to Michigan
The scoop: One of the biggest misnomers from the 2024-25 campaign was that Michigan’s offense was actually good.
It was potent in non-conference play, a disaster during the middle of Big Ten play and inconsistent in the postseason.
Michigan finished 14th in offensive efficiency during conference play. That doesn’t really align with the national buzz around Danny Wolf, the 7-foot unicorn who ran pick-and-rolls like a point guard.
While the Wolf-Vlad Goldin, two-man game was captivating, it served more as a band-aid to what was really going on. Dusty May leaned heavily on Wolf to create advantages and Goldin to dunk everything because he didn’t seem to trust his backcourt all that much.
It was a mercurial group. Tre Donaldson had some clutch moments in late-game scenarios and was also nowhere to be found in some big games. Roddy Gayle’s frustrating junior season was well documented. The threat of Nimari Burnett’s jumper was vital, but Michigan didn’t get a ton out of Rubin Jones or LJ Cason during the meat of conference play.
It’s why a guy like Elliot Cadeau was such a big priority for this staff, just hours after Michigan’s Sweet 16 loss to Auburn.
May’s offense needs a paint-touch guard who can consistently get past that initial defender and get the defense into swarm mode. It’s what made his FAU teams so nasty.
Cadeau can do just that. He’s just a wildly different player than Donaldson, the point guard he is replacing.
Let’s go for a drive
Elliot Cadeau: 98 drives and 160 shots at the rim in 27 minutes per gameTre Donaldson: 55 drives and 119 shots at the rim in 31 minutes per game
Cadeau is just way more dynamic in pick-and-rolls than Donaldson. UNC’s offense averaged 0.993 points per possession when Cadeau was initiating a ball screen. That rated in the 78th percentile nationally, per Synergy. Donaldson-led pick-and-rolls were not an overly efficient play for Michigan’s offense (0.827 points per possession, 36th percentile).
Cadeau has to play better defense. He has to make better decisions. The jumper so clearly needs to make strides in the right direction. But would anyone be that surprised if Cadeau plays his best basketball surrounded by one of the elite frontcourts in college basketball?
I sure wouldn’t.
Michigan projected starting lineup
Top reserves: C Morez Johnson Jr., G Trey McKenney, F Will Tschetter, G LJ Cason, G Winters Grady
Daniel Skillings Jr., Baylor
Portal travels: From Cincinnati to Baylor
The scoop: Cincinnati coach Wes Miller has a coveted high-major gig largely thanks to his work at UNC Greensboro, where he built the Spartans into a yearly contender. But he did it with defense, not offense. In Miller’s 10-year span, he never finished with a top-three offense in the 10-team SoCon.
That trend has largely followed suit at Cincinnati, where the Bearcats have been a stout defensive team, but they have not finished inside the top-50 in offensive efficiency in each of the four seasons with Miller at the helm.
That’s the offensive ecosystem Dan Skillings Jr. is leaving, and he’s joining a Baylor club that has notched six consecutive top-20 offenses.
This situation is vastly different, and Skillings’ is poised to benefit greatly.
The 6-6 senior wing is a talented player. One of Baylor’s biggest offseason priorities was finding more perimeter size and defensive bite. Skillings will help in that department. He looks like the best perimeter defender on this new-look Bears team. But this Baylor scheme should help Skillings post some of the best efficiency marks of his career. Scott Drew wants to take 3s or layups. That fits Skillings’ game to a T. Over 90% of Skillings’ shots last season were either layups or 3-pointers.
Skillings has to hold up his end of the bargain as well. He’s only shot 28% from downtown for his career. Could that be a result of playing in a Cincinnati offense that rarely created those ultra-valuable catch-and-shoot 3s? We’ll find out. In 23 of 29 games last year, Skillings attempted two or fewer free throws. That’s incomprehensible for a big, strong guard who shot over 50% of his shots at the rim. With better spacing and extra driving lanes, can his free throw attempts rise at Baylor?
It’s all right there for Skillings to find his swagger again.
Baylor projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F Cam Carr, G JJ White, C Juslin Bodo Bodo, G Isaac Williams
