Big 12 men’s basketball preseason rankings: Houston, Arizona and a crowded top 5

Last season was the first since 2013 that the Big 12 was not one of the top two leagues in college basketball, according to Ken Pomeroy’s metric for measuring conference strength.

There are a couple of reasons for that. Expansion to add UCF and some middling Pac-12 programs has made the bottom of the league much weaker. But the top, which was thought to be elite a year ago with five in the preseason top 10, did not meet expectations. The league still had one team reach the national title game (Houston), had another in the Elite Eight (Texas Tech) and five in the final Top 25, but it was a slight disappointment because of the fall-off from programs like Kansas and Baylor.

So what does this season look like? It’s possible everyone was just a year early. My most recent sketch of my preseason Top 25 has five Big 12 schools in the top 12, which is more than any other league. I’ll also have a sixth in the Top 25.

As for the rest of the league? It’s a crapshoot. Out of the 80 players projected to be starters in the Big 12, 61 are new to their team. Below the top six, there are only five projected starters who are returners.

So if you’d like a handy cheat sheet on trying to learn who is where, you’ve come to the right place. Just don’t hold me to these rankings beyond the top six. I’ll probably want a redo by mid-December.

Note: For freshmen, the ranking next to their name comes from the recruiting services consensus index (RSCI), which combines multiple ranking services to produce a consensus ranking. 

The deeeeep top tier

1. Houston

Last season: 35-5, national runner-up

Coach: Kelvin Sampson (12th season)

Top bench players: Isiah Harwell (freshman, No. 12); Ramon Walker Jr. (2.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG); Jacob McFarland (redshirted last season); Mercy Miller (2.7 PPG); Chase McCarty (redshirted last season); Kordel Jefferson (1.0 PPG); Kalifa Sahko (7.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG at Sam Houston State)

Biggest losses: LJ Cryer (16.0 PPG, 2.0 APG); J’Wan Roberts (10.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG); Ja’Vier Francis (5.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG); Mylik Wilson (5.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG)

Why they’re here: Houston has one of the best trios returning in college basketball, with three starters (Uzan, Sharp and Tugler) back from the team that was an eyelash away from winning the national title. The combination of Tugler’s return with Sampson’s coaching just about guarantees this will be one of the best defensive teams in the nation.

The unknown is Sampson leaning on multiple freshmen for the first time. Most likely, some combination of Cenac, Flemings and Harwell will take two of the final three starting spots, and the other will likely be the sixth man. Flemings has a maturity to his game and should fit in seamlessly. Cenac might be better at center and it could take some time to figure out how to play him with another big. Leaning on a freshman to play what might not be his best position is the one reason to question Houston as the Big 12 favorite.

It is difficult to win with freshmen at the high-major level unless they’re one-and-done first-rounders. But there are enough veterans in important roles to ease the pressure, and Sampson has won the conference he’s coached for four straight seasons. I’d entertain an argument for someone else, but Sampson, his vets and his culture is the safest bet.

2. Arizona

Last season: 24-13, Sweet 16

Coach: Tommy Lloyd (fifth season)

Top bench players: Tobe Awaka (8.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG); Ivan Kharchenkov (international); Dwayne Aristode (freshman, No. 23); Sidi Gueye (international); Evan Nelson (9.1 PPG, 2.9 APG at Harvard)

Biggest losses: Caleb Love (17.2 PPG, 3.4 APG); Henri Veesaar (9.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG); Carter Bryant (6.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG); KJ Lewis (10.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG); Trey Townsend (8.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG)

Why they’re here: I’m much higher than consensus on Arizona because of the defensive potential. The Cats have great positional size and an elite rim protector in the 7-foot-2 Krivas. During the 2023-24 season, when Krivas was healthy, Arizona held opponents to 91.3 points per 100 possessions and 36.6 percent shooting inside the arc when Krivas was on the floor, per CBB Analytics. If those were season-long numbers, Arizona would have had the third-best defense in college basketball and by far the best 2-point defense. It should dominate the paint and control the boards.

In predicting a great season for the Cats, the one leap you have to make is that this team, which is leaning on some young scorers, will be elite offensively.

Arizona has had a top-11 offense in each of Lloyd’s four seasons as head coach, and in the three years before that, when Lloyd was helping run Gonzaga’s offense, the Zags had a three-year run as the most efficient offense in college basketball.

Other reasons to believe: Bradley will be in his third year at point guard, Burries is one of the best scorers in the 2025 class, Kharchenkov is one of the best international wings coming over, and Peat, who averaged 12.6 points and 6.9 rebounds in the under-19 World Cup playing for Lloyd, is one of the most college-ready freshmen in the country. And with Awaka, Krivas, Peat and several huge wings, Arizona should be one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The biggest concern is 3-point shooting, but the Cats were average last year (33.8 percent) and still had the 11th-best offense nationally.

3. Texas Tech

Last season: 28-9, Elite Eight

Coach: Grant McCasland (third season)

Top bench players: Luke Bamgboye (3.8 PPG, 2.1 BPG at VCU); Josiah Moseley (1.9 PPG at Villanova); Jaylen Petty (freshman, NR)

Biggest losses: Darrion Williams (15.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.6 APG); Chance McMillian (14.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG); Elijah Hawkins (9.1 PPG, 6.5 APG); Kevin Overton (7.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG); Kerwin Walton (6.0 PPG); Federiko Federiko (5.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG)

Why they’re here: Texas Tech has a clear vision of what it wants to be and how to pull it off. Last season, the Red Raiders relied on elite floor spacing and players who could score when given that space to build one of the best offenses in college basketball. McCasland doubled down by paying big money to retain Toppin, replacing Williams with another big wing who can pass and score in Watts and bringing in two 3-point snipers in Bryan and Atwell.

McCasland will also unleash Anderson as his primary guard. The sophomore was fantastic this summer at the U19s World Cup, averaging 17.3 points and 6.6 assists for the Germans, who won silver.

Anderson and Toppin should be one of the best duos in the country. Whether Texas Tech can be as good or even better than last year will depend on how good Watts is — McCasland is a big believer — and if the defense can improve. To help there, McCasland brought in Bamgboye, who had the second-best block rate in college hoops last year. Depth could be a concern, but the roles are so defined and Toppin and Anderson are so good that it’s hard to see this failing if the Red Raiders can stay healthy.

4. BYU

Last season: 26-10, Sweet 16

Coach: Kevin Young (second season)

Top bench players: Xavier Staton (freshman, No. 37); Dawson Baker (7.5 PPG, 1.4 APG); Mihailo Boskovic (3.6 PPG); Nate Pickens (9.8 PPG at UC Riverside); Tyler Mrus (9.7 PPG at Idaho); Chamberlain Burgess (freshman, NR); Domique Diomande (redshirted at Washington)

Biggest losses: Egor Demin (10.6 PPG, 5.5 APG); Trevin Knell (9.2 PPG); Fousseyni Traore (8.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG); Dallin Hall (6.8 PPG, 4.2 APG); Kanon Catchings (7.2 PPG); Mawot Mag (5.9 PPG)

Why they’re here: BYU has the talent to win the league and a national championship if it all falls together perfectly. Saunders was a first-team All-Big 12 selection a year ago and you could make the argument he’s the third-best talent on the roster behind Dybantsa and Wright. (Caveat: The Big 12 put 10 players on the first team. I don’t love giving angry energy to things that don’t really matter, but this is dumb.)

The Cougars raised the ceiling by spending to land Wright, who was one of the best freshmen guards in the country. You could make the argument that Hall might have been a better fit to run the offense, but Young decided to bet on talent.

This group does have more question marks than those above them. Young plays a style that encourages a heavy volume of 3-pointers. Wright and Dybantsa are mediocre 3-point shooters. Can they be efficient enough for the offense to be elite? Davis was the second-leading scorer on a mediocre Southern Illinois team. Can he level up?

Will Young’s bench be as productive as it was a year ago? One reason the Cougars took off was BYU had one of the best bench units in college basketball and wore opponents down. Can the defense be better? The other teams in this tier are likely all top-30 defenses. BYU ranked 82nd in adjusted defense, and even after the Cougars got hot — starting on Feb. 11, when they won nine straight — they were only 76th in adjusted defense from that point forward, per Bart Torvik’s ratings.

That’s where Wright and Dybantsa could make a big difference. To be considered an elite team, that’s where BYU needs to make a huge leap.

5. Kansas

Last season: 21-13, first round

Coach: Bill Self (23rd season)

Top bench players: Elmarko Jackson (medical redshirt); Jayden Dawson (13.9 PPG at Loyola Chicago); Paul Mbiya (international); Bryson Tiller (freshman, No. 85); Samis Calderon (freshman, NR); Jamari McDowell (redshirted)

Biggest losses: Hunter Dickinson (17.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG); Zeke Mayo (14.6 PPG); KJ Adams (9.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG); Dajuan Harris Jr. (9.2 PPG, 5.7 APG); Rylan Griffen (6.3 PPG); AJ Storr (6.1 PPG)

Why they’re here: Kansas was preseason No. 1 in each of the last two years, despite a flawed roster. It was the media betting on Self’s track record, falling for Dickinson as a star who could carry a title contender and overlooking the spacing issues that came with playing three non-shooters a majority of the minutes. Is it possible KU is now going too far in the other direction?

I’m likely higher than consensus on Kansas when it comes to national rankings but right at consensus when it comes to the Big 12. It’s not because of a belief that Self has lost it; it’s more to do with how good the top of the league is this season.

Kansas winning the Big 12 would not be shocking. Peterson is that good, and Self made a concerted effort to learn from his roster-building mistakes.

Self wants to be able to dominate games with his defense. He took transfers who he believes can defend. Self likes guards who can get downhill and put pressure on the defense. He has three of them in Peterson, Council and Jackson.

How good KU can be will likely depend on Bidunga’s improvement and 3-point shooting. Bidunga looks bigger and his semi-nervous freshman energy has been replaced with “I’m a bad boy” energy. The Peterson-Bidunga pick-and-roll should be elite, especially if the spacing is there. KU missed on its final two big swings in the spring — Darrion Williams and Dame Sarr — but it could work out because it led to Rosario, who had a terrific summer and is the shooter KU needed to provide that spacing. Dawson could also fill that role.

And to repeat: Peterson is that good. He plays with the poise of a senior and has all the tools to be one of the best guards in college basketball. The top five teams in the Big 12 could finish in any order. It should be an awesome race to the finish.

Reliable, with a high floor

6. Iowa State

Last season: 25-10, second round

Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (fifth season)

Top bench players: Nate Heise (5.1 PPG); Jamarion Batemon (freshman, No. 51); Xzavion Mitchell (freshman, No. 89); Killyan Toure (freshman, NR); Eric Mulder (8.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG at Purdue Fort Wayne); Dominykas Pleta (international)

Biggest losses: Curtis Jones (17.4 PPG); Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG); Dishon Jackson (8.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG)

Why they’re here: Iowa State has a proven big three with the return of Lipsey, Momcilovic and Jefferson. Iowa State fans will have a worthy beef with me for not including the Cyclones in that top tier when returning three players that good and then also the near-certainty that the defense will continue to be quite good. How good the Cyclones will be is likely going to come down to the replacements at the other two spots.

Offensively, the Cyclones fell off when Gilbert got hurt and wasn’t himself down the stretch. Otzelberger has been a wizard in the portal, and this could be a top-10 team if he strikes gold again. Nelson, the WAC player of the year, is the top option to replace Jones as the go-to perimeter scorer. My concern is one reason Jones fit so well next to Lipsey was his shooting. Nelson shot 25.3 percent from 3 last season on low attempts. Batemon is also a candidate to emerge as a scoring option.

The other question mark: Will the Cyclones be as big and physical up front as they have been the last two years? Last year’s frontline was not as imposing as the year before and this could also be a drop off with Jackson (6-11/274 pounds) and Brandton Chatfield (6-10/260) replaced by Buchanan (6-10/225) and Pleta (6-11/235). Buchanan has been well-schooled at Virginia, but he was the starter for a defense that ranked 144th last year. With Lipsey at the point of the attack and the scheme, this will still be a good defensive team. Just maybe not elite.

Total rebuilds with talent

7. Baylor

Last season: 20-15, second round

Coach: Scott Drew (23rd season)

Top bench players: Dan Skillings Jr. (9.2 PPG at Cincinnati); Juslin Bodo Bodo (5.3 PPG, 8.4 RPG at High Point); JJ White (13.7 PPG, 4.0 APG at Omaha); Isaac Williams (10.8 PPG, 3.7 APG at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi); Mayo Soyoye (freshman, NR)

Biggest losses: VJ Edgecombe (15.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.2 APG); Norchad Omier (15.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG); Robert Wright III (11.5 PPG, 4.2 APG); Jeremy Roach (10.0 PPG); Jayden Nunn (8.6 PPG); Jalen Celestine (7.1 PPG); Langston Love (8.9 PPG); Josh Ojianwuna (7.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG)

Why they’re here: Track record. Baylor does not have one rotational player returning from a year ago. The plan was to bring back Wright, but then BYU came with an offer he could not refuse. So Drew hit the transfer portal to reload and it’s an interesting mix.

Instead of last year’s approach, where most of the salary pool went to three big names (Edgecombe, Omier and Roach), it appears Baylor went for depth. It’s a mix of proven scorers from mediocre teams — Agbim and Rataj — and talented players who needed a change of scenery like Skillings and Carr. If Yessoufou is as good as scouts made him sound this summer, then the Bears should have another good offense.

For Baylor to win again in March, Drew needs this it to get back to buying in on the defensive end. That has been Baylor’s issue since winning the title in 2021. While Baylor has ranked in the top 20 in offense for seven straight seasons, the Bears have fallen off on the other end the last three years, with an average finish of 80.3 in adjusted defense after a three-year run with an average finish of 13. Maybe it comes together and Baylor climbs into that top tier again, or maybe the Bears miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. Either seems feasible.

8. Kansas State

Last season: 16-17, no postseason

Coach: Jerome Tang (fourth season)

Top bench players: Abdi Bashir Jr. (20.1 PPG at Monmouth); Marcus Johnson (16.2 PPG at Bowling Green); David Castillo (2.4 PPG); C.J. Jones (5.7 PPG); Mobi Ikegwuruka (2.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG); Dorin Buca (international);

Biggest losses: David N’Guessan (13.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG); Coleman Hawkins (10.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.3 APG); Dug McDaniel (11.4 PPG, 4.9 APG); Brendan Hausen (10.9 PPG); Max Jones (9.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG)

Why they’re here: K-State is the team outside of the top tier that might have the best chance to break in. Haggerty was an All-American at Memphis. Kostic is one of the best shooters coming from overseas. Johnson was a really good player on one of the best mid-major teams a year ago. Rapieque was in Alba Berlin’s rotation in the EuroLeague. And Bashir averaged 28.7 points in three games against high-major opponents and led college basketball in 3-pointers per game. There’s plenty of firepower here, and K-State has given Tang the money to spend.

Tang crushed expectations his first year in Manhattan but has underachieved the last two. Every year has been a total rebuild. There’s enough talent here that, similar to last season, eventually the Cats should be able to figure out how to finish close to .500 if they do not immediately vibe. The addition of North Florida coach Matthew Driscoll, a former Baylor assistant, could help Tang get his offense right and raise the ceiling.

There’s plenty of reason to be excited for K-State fans. Similar to Baylor, it’s just hard to predict how all of these pieces from all over the globe will fit together, but making the NCAA Tournament should be the expectation.

Bubbly?

9. Oklahoma State

Last season: 17-18, NIT quarterfinals

Coach: Steve Lutz (second season)

Top bench players: Isaiah Coleman (15.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG at Seton Hall); Lefteris Mantzoukas (international); Robert Jennings II (5.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG); Jaylen Curry (13.3 PPG, 3.9 APG at UMass); Ben Ahmed (freshman, No. 87); Ryan Crotty (freshman, NR); Mekhi (Ragland (freshman, NR)

Biggest losses: Bryce Thompson (13.0 PPG); About Ousmane (12.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG); Marchelus Avery (11.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG); Arturo Dean (7.6 PPG, 3.4 APG); Brandon Newman (7.3 PPG); Khalil Brantley (6.2 PPG)

Why they’re here: I’m betting on the coaches with these next two teams. Lutz quietly put together one of the better coaching jobs in the Big 12 last season to win seven conference games.

Miller is a good upside swing who started in the SEC as a freshman. Roy led college basketball in scoring last season before an ankle injury ended his season, albeit on a very bad team. Coleman was the second-leading scorer on the AAC’s third-best team and has the physique to level up. Clary was productive two years ago on a middling Penn State team. Fallah was productive on a decent Oregon State team, and Coleman was the leading scorer on a last-place Big East team.

Is it amazing talent on paper? No. But it’s respectable, and Lutz has shown the ability to build a winner quickly. Before taking the Oklahoma State job, he was three for three in making the NCAA Tournament at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Western Kentucky. He also worked for Matt Painter and Greg McDermott. He knows what winning looks like. His teams are going to play hard and fast, and it started to work late last year when they went 5-6 down the stretch in Big 12 play.

10. West Virginia

Last season: 19-13, no postseason

Coach: Ross Hodge (first season)

Top bench players: Chance Moore (13.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG at St. Bonaventure); Jayden Forsythe (freshman, NR); Amir Jenkins (freshman, NR); Jackson Fields (7.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG at Troy); Morris Ugusuk (5.9 PPG at South Carolina)

Biggest losses: Javon Small (18.6 PPG, 5.6 APG); Tucker DeVries (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG); Amani Hansberry (9.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG); Jonathan Powell (8.3 PPG); Tobi Okani (8.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG); Sencire Harris (5.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG)

Why they’re here: West Virginia athletic director Wren Baker nailed the hire a year ago when he brought in Darian DeVries, who left for Indiana this offseason, and I believe he got it right again with Hodge. Baker knew Hodge well from their years together at North Texas, where Baker was the AD and Hodge was Grant McCasland’s top assistant. Hodge is an excellent defensive coach with a good eye for finding under-the-radar players.

Leveling up to the Big 12 is a huge challenge, but Hodge’s old boss has pulled it off at Texas Tech. McCasland’s NIL situation is much healthier. But Hodge has the coaching chops and putting the Mountaineers this high is a belief in Hodge’s defense — North Texas has had a top-two defense in its league for four straight years — and his ability to grind out wins in ugly games. He also has a couple of shooters in Huff and Eaglestaff who will have nights where they get hot and can carry the offense.

11. Cincinnati

Last season: 19-16, College Basketball Crown quarterfinals

Coach: Wes Miller (fifth season)

Top bench players: Shon Abaev (freshman, No. 23); Kerr Kriisa (4.4 PPG, 3.8 APG at Kentucky); Jalen Celestine (7.1 PPG at Baylor); Jordi Rodriguez (international); Tyler McKinley (medical redshirt); Keyshawn Tillery (freshman, No. 58); Lucas Atauri (international)

Biggest losses: Jizzle James (12.7 PPG, 3.5 APG); Dillon Mitchell (9.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG); Simas Lukosius (10.3 PPG); Daniel Skillings (9.2 PPG); Aziz Bandaogo (7.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG)

Why they’re here: This is a huge year for Miller and he’s built an interesting roster. The swing piece is Miller, the 21-year-old Spaniard who has flashes that intrigue scouts. It just hasn’t translated to winning in his first three years in college. Thiam is similar. He was one of the most productive freshmen in the Big 12 last year at UCF, but that productivity was on a bad team and he took more jumpers than felt appropriate.

But you cannot deny there’s talent on this roster. According to 247Sports, the Bearcats had the 17th-best class — freshmen and transfers combined — in college hoops, one spot below Kansas.

Abaev is the second-highest rated recruit the Bearcats have ever landed in the 247Sports database. Haynes doesn’t have the upside of his frontcourt buddies, but he has won, leading George Mason to a surprising Atlantic 10 regular-season title last season. Harris was one of the best defensive guards available in the portal, and Rodriguez has been a solid contributor for Spain’s youth teams and played in the country’s top league (the ACB). McKinley and Tillery were both top-100 recruits, and Celestine and Kriisa were rotation players for NCAA Tournament teams a year ago.

There’s a lot of lineup versatility, good positional size and reason for optimism. But you could have said the same the last two years, and Cincinnati is 14-24 so far in the Big 12. Maybe this is buyer’s remorse from believing last season.

Was last season an outlier?

12. Colorado

Last season: 14-21, College Basketball Crown first round

Coach: Tad Boyle (16th season)

Top bench players: Leonardo Van Elswyk (international); Sebastian Rancik (5.9 PPG); Jalin Holland (freshman, NR); Tacko Fawaz (freshman, NR); Isaiah Johnson (freshman, NR); Andrew Crawford (redshirted); Felix Kossaras (2.0 PPG)

Biggest losses: Julian Hammond (12.5 PPG, 3.2 APG); Andrej Jakimovski (10.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG); Trevor Baskin (7.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG); RJ Smith (6.2 PPG)

Why they’re here: Colorado actually has some roster retention and landed a good guard out of the transfer portal in Hargress. The Big West has had some guards successfully level up in recent years — Taze Moore (Houston), Zyon Pullin (Florida) and Latrell Wrightsell (Alabama).

Mostly, I’m betting on Boyle by not putting the Buffs in one of the last spots. In his first 14 seasons at Colorado, his worst conference record was four games below .500, which he did twice. He made six NCAA Tournaments, and it would have been seven had the 2020 tourney happened. Last year, when the Buffs went 3-17 in the Big 12, was a total outlier. It’s possible Colorado will struggle to compete in the NIL era, but the combination of minutes continuity and Boyle’s track record is reason enough not to put the Buffs back at the bottom.

Hail Marys

13. Utah

Last season: 16-17, College Basketball Crown first round

Coach: Alex Jensen (first season)

Top bench players: Elijah Moore (5.2 PPG at Syracuse); Seydou Traore (5.9 PPG at Iowa); Jahki Howard (4.2 PPG at Auburn); Jacob Patrick (international); Josh Hayes (junior college); Kendyl Sanders (freshman, NR); Obomate Abbey (international); Ibi Traore (medical redshirt)

Biggest losses: Gabe Madsen (15.2 PPG); Ezra Ausar (12.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG); Lawson Lovering (8.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG); Mike Sharavjamts (7.2 PPG)

Why they’re here: It’s dreary down here, but Utah at least has something to be excited about and a few reasons for hope. Jensen, most recently a Dallas Mavericks assistant, wisely retained Dawes, who was in the transfer portal and decided to return. Dawes popped late in the year when he was elevated to starter for his last two games, putting up 21 points and 15 rebounds in a Big 12 tourney loss to UCF and then 19 points and 11 rebounds in a loss to Butler in the Crown. Granted, those were mostly throwaway games, but when I told a couple of NBA scouts to keep an eye on Dawes at the Big 12 tournament, they came back the next day asking who else they should watch. (Translation: NBA scouts believe there’s something there.) Dawes was super efficient in a low-usage role, and at 6-9 he has the tools to be special.

Whether Utah wins will depend on whether the transfer scorers can level up. Brown was the best player in the Northeast Conference, but that was the worst league in Division I. Western Kentucky was 6-3 and hovering around 100 at KenPom when Faye was lost for the season with a knee injury. McHenry led WKU in scoring. Okonkwo was solid last year on a good Akron team and contributed three years ago at West Virginia. At the very least, he can defend and rebound. Howard had a stretch where he was in the rotation at Auburn last year as a freshman. Jensen also swung on a couple of international prospects.

Best-case scenario: This is 2021-22 Iowa State, when Otzelberger made the NCAA Tournament in his first season, when no one was expecting it. The commonality: Both coaches returned to places they were very familiar with.

14. TCU

Last season: 16-16, no postseason

Coach: Jamie Dixon (10th season)

Top bench players: Liutauras Lelevicius (8.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG at Oregon State); Kayden Edwards (freshman, No. 66); Xavier Edmonds (junior college); Micah Robinson (5.3 PPG); Jace Posey (4.3 PPG); Ashton Simmons (redshirted); RJ Jones (redshirted)

Biggest losses: Noah Reynolds (12.5 PPG); Vasean Allete (11.4 PPG, 3.5 APG); Trazarien White (9.2 påg); Ernest Udeh (6.4 PPG, 1.3 BPG)

Why they’re here: TCU’s talent has fallen off. Allete was the second-leading scorer on last year’s roster and transferred to UTSA. You could say this too low to put a Dixon-coached team but this might be one of the least-talented rosters he’s coached.

Harding is a fun point guard who is a legit table setter. While Iowa had a down year last season, the Hawkeyes still ranked 18th in adjusted offense. They just couldn’t guard, and Harding’s size is an issue on that end. The backcourt pieces are fine with Harding, Pierre and Toolson, but I’m not sure any are a go-to scorer. Losing Udeh is a big loss to the defense and TCU’s frontcourt is one of the worst on paper. Maybe Dixon can squeeze out a .500 season in league play, but it’s going to take a leap from returners like Punch, Robinson and Posey for that to happen.

15. UCF

Last season: 20-17, College Basketball Crown runner-up

Coach: Johnny Dawkins (10th season)

Top bench players: Kris Parker (2.6 PPG at Villanova); George Beale Jr. (13.0 PPG at Hampton); John Bol (1.1 PPG at Ole Miss); Jeremy Foumena (1.1 PPG at Mississippi State); Carmelo Pacheco (9.5 PPG at Mount St. Mary’s); Devan Cambridge (5.5 PPG at Texas Tech); Tanner Jones (freshman, NR)

Biggest losses: Keyshawn Hall (18.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG); Darius Johnson (17.4 PPG, 4.3 APG); Jordan Ivy-Curry (13.1 påg); Moustapha Thiam (10.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.6 BPG)

Why they’re here: The Knights might have been a trendy pick if Hall and Thiam returned, but both transferred out along with everyone else with eligibility remaining. This roster is Milwaukee’s best two players and a bunch of well-traveled players. The good news is that Milwaukee at least won last year and finished second in the Horizon. Unfortunately for Dawkins, he’s on the hot seat with an entirely new roster for a program that probably should still be in the American.

16. Arizona State

Last season: 13-20, College Basketball Crown first round

Coach: Bobby Hurley (11th season)

Top bench players: Santiago Trouet (8.7 PPG at San Diego); Bryce Ford (7.1 PPG at Toledo); Anthony Johnson (junior college); Vijay Wallace (junior college); Andrija Grbovic (international); Noah Meeusen (international); Jovan Icitovic (international); Marcus Jackson (freshman, NR)

Biggest losses: Jayden Quaintance (9.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG); Alston Mason (13.8 PPG, 4.0 APG); Basheer Jihad (12.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG); BJ Freeman (13.7 PPG); Joson Sanon (11.9 PPG); Adam Miller (9.8 PPG)

Why they’re here: Arizona State is a total reboot with a mix of mid-major transfers, junior-college transfers and international players. Adams is the most likely to emerge as a star among the mid-major players. He’s been well-traveled, playing for Kansas, Gonzaga, BYU and Cal State Northridge. He was one of the most talented players in the Big West last year. The biggest red flag with this roster is that Adams was the only one on a successful team last year and CSUN finished third in the Big West. The collective conference records of these mid-major transfers was 41-53.

So yeah, some of these guys put up good numbers, but they were on bad or mediocre teams. Doubt that translates to wins in the Big 12.

(Top image of Emanuel Sharp: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)