College basketball rankings: Michigan State, Auburn among teams in AP Top 25 who could miss NCAA Tournament

In every college basketball season since 2012, at least one team that began the season ranked in the AP Top 25 has failed to reach the NCAA Tournament. In the past three years alone, there were 13 teams ranked in the preseason that didn’t reach March Madness.

It’s basically a guarantee that at least one team we are lauding in October will be flopping by February. Over the past 13 years (excluding the COVID-impacted 2019-20 season) an average of four teams ranked in the preseason poll fell short of the Big Dance. Last season, there were three culprits (No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Cincinnati and No. 25 Rutgers). 

Arguably the most famous recent example is from the 2022-23 season, which is when North Carolina became the first-ever preseason No. 1 team to fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. Those Tar Heels serve as the ultimate case study in how, just because a team looks good on paper, it doesn’t mean they’ll be good in reality.

Given recent history, it’s safe to assume there will be at least a couple of teams ranked in this year’s preseason poll that fall short of expectations. For this edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are picking the ranked teams they believe could miss the NCAA Tournament.

I’ll stay true to the Top 25 And 1 and start this list with Creighton, which is the only team in the Associated Press Top 25 preseason poll that isn’t in my rankings. Does that mean I’m actually predicting the Bluejays to miss the 2026 NCAA Tournament? No. It just means that, by definition, according to my rankings, they are the team most likely to miss the field after losing the top three scorers from last season’s team — among them Ryan Kalkbrenner, an All-American who was a four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year.

Simply put, collectively, the players who exited Creighton’s program seem to be better, at least on paper, than the ones who just enrolled at the Omaha-based school earlier this offseason. That’s usually not good. And, don’t forget, last season’s theoretical better roster still only received a No. 9 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament before finishing 35th at KenPom.com. If you’re curious, the Bluejays are now sitting at 41st in KenPom’s preseason rankings, making them the lowest rated team in that computer that voters placed in the preseason AP poll. — Gary Parrish

Well, I suppose I have to tip my hand just a smidge here. My thinking is similar to GP’s. Every year, I research and compile a ranking of the top 101 teams heading into the season. My rankings are finished but that piece won’t publish until next week. That in mind, I’ll reveal that the AP Top 25 team that I have ranked lowest is in fact Wisconsin. So logic would dictate I need to pick Bucky as my whiff candidate here (and yet, though this will obviously prove to be incorrect, I actually think every preseason Top 25 team is going to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament). 

My Wisconsin thinking goes: John Tonje (who was an All-American, remember!), Max Klesmit and Steven Crowl will not be replaced in the aggregate. UW went 27-10 and got a  No. 3 seed. Badgers fans should expect a step back for sure, but with a mix-matched group of transfers coming in to support John Blackwell, I wouldn’t be shocked if Wisconsin just missed out. I also think the Big Ten will be the best league in the country, which will affect Wisconsin’s push to be in the top six or seven in the league standings by mid-March. — Matt Norlander

How many programs in college basketball, realistically, could withstand the loss of a potential future Hall of Fame coach and be as good (or even better) after they stepped aside just weeks before the start of the season? Think about it. There’s probably no schools that come to mind because it’s highly unlikely any program would be in a better spot in that situation.

That’s the basis here on why I’m skeptical Auburn can maintain its preseason expectations as a top-25 team. With Bruce Pearl transitioning into a new role at Auburn and son Steven Pearl now head coach, it’s reasonable, and even likely, I’d argue, that Auburn has downgraded dramatically at head coach. That’s not to say Steven will fail or even that he won’t do well. Don’t hear what I’m not saying. 

But replacing a coach in the elder Pearl who retires with a career winning percentage better than Eddie Sutton, Rick Pitino and Bob Knight, among many others, is a gargantuan ask. Especially for a program that is now handing the keys to a first-time head coach at a place that has largely been unsuccessful in basketball without him.

Tahaad Pettiford and the top of Auburn’s roster is very good. Steven is set up for success. Auburn, over the short- and long-term, should largely succeed because of how the foundation was set over the last decade. But if any top-25 team finishes unranked or even misses the NCAA Tournament entirely, my bet would be on the Tigers. The SEC will take no prisoners and it can swallow up even the best coaches. If this team misses the Big Dance in five months I don’t think we should be surprised given the headwinds it faces. — Kyle Boone

No. 22 Michigan State

 If this roster were coached by anyone else other than Tom Izzo, there is no chance it would be ranked in the preseason AP poll. But because it’s Izzo who is on the sidelines, Michigan State is getting the benefit of the doubt, and understandably so. The Spartans have reached 27 straight NCAA Tournaments under Izzo, and that mark would be 28 if not for the COVID-impacted 2019-20 season. Izzo, 70, is one of the greatest to ever do it, and he might be able to take a roster full of kids from Michigan State’s supply chain management program and lead them to the Big Dance.

So, just bookmark this for whenever Michigan State ends up in the Final Four for a ninth time under his direction. Now that my respect and admiration for Izzo has been established, let’s take a closer look at the 2025-26 Spartans. As has often been the case in recent years, Michigan State will need to be a team whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts. There are no preseason All-Americans, five-star freshmen or projected NBA lottery picks on this team. There aren’t even any rockstar transfers. The top three scorers from a 30-win team are gone, and no one on this roster has ever averaged double figures for a high-major program. While there are four rotation players back from last season, they’ll be taking on heightened roles in what figures to be a brutal Big Ten.

Izzo deserves to be trusted. But if you take away the coach and do a blind roster breakdown, the Spartans would be no more than a bubble team. — David Cobb

No. 25 North Carolina

I wrote about North Carolina not once, but twice during this week. I discussed why the Tar Heels shouldn’t be ranked in the initial preseason AP Top 25 poll and should be lower than third in the ACC poll. So, I guess I’m (tripling?) down by picking North Carolina here. The main reason is that UNC coach Hubert Davis doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. North Carolina missed the NCAA Tournament entirely when the program was ranked preseason No. 1, reached the Sweet 16 in 2024 and shockingly were one of the “Last Four” teams in the field last year. Truthfully, UNC should’ve been sitting at home.

This is a make-or-break season for Davis, and anything less than a deep run in the NCAA Tournament will put him back on the hot seat.

UNC’s roster is talented, no denying that. Five-star Caleb Wilson is a stud, Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar is a breakout candidate and Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson has already proven he can step up in the big moment. Losing RJ Davis, one of the top scorers in program history, is a big deal. Colorado State transfer Kyan Evans will have big shoes to fill.What will make or break UNC’s case for the NCAA Tournament is nonconference games against Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan State. The ACC is top-heavy this season and North Carolina only plays NC State and Louisville once. If North Carolina struggles in nonconference play, it will be playing behind the eight ball entering ACC play with not many opportunities to rack up signature wins. — Cameron Salerno

No. 23 Creighton

Creighton’s defense is pretty clearly the worst unit of any team that made the AP Top 25. Greg McDermott is a revered offensive mastermind, but he only had one top-25 defense before Ryan Kalkbrenner arrived in Omaha. With the King of Verticality off to Charlotte, Creighton’s defense could take a massive plunge because the personnel on that end is uninspiring.

Nik Graves comes from Charlotte, the worst defense in the AAC. Josh Dix and Owen Freeman come from Iowa, where it was defense optional. Oh, and Freeman is still recovering from a knee injury. Is Howard transfer Blake Harper going to be a shutdown defender at the high-major ranks right away? I’m skeptical. What about sweet-shooting Austin Swartz, who Creighton rescued from a Miami dumpster fire? No defense was played in The U for five straight months.

McDermott is a smart coach, who will win the shot-quality game, but the personnel is a tad crippling. There’s only so much you can do. Creighton faces a steep uphill climb just to get to that top-50 range defensively, which means you’re asking an offense with a new starting point guard, new starting shooting guard, new starting wing and new starting center to bail you out time and time again? No, thank you.

College basketball is cyclical. Kalkbrenner helped vault Creighton to new heights, but I’m projecting a step back in 2025-26 because you just don’t replace dudes like that. — Isaac Trotter