After eight straight weeks of turnover at the top, we finally have stability in the Heisman market. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza remains the favorite for a second week in a row, while we have a new top two favorites for the national title.
Here’s a complete look.
Breaking down six players for Heisman
Top three favorites
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +300 
Last week +300
I’m staying consistent with my reads. Mendoza’s the rightful favorite because Indiana is undefeated; he’s completing 73% of passes, and his 24-3 TD/INT ratio is elite. The fact his number didn’t move despite another blowout win shows the market already baked in his dominance. The only reason to hold off betting him now is timing, he’s already priced at peak. But in terms of odds, yes, (still) justified.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State +400
Last week +400
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Sayin is the “Heisman prototype” in that he’s leading a big-name program, an undefeated team, with near-flawless command. He doesn’t have the deep-ball highlight reel yet, but the 80% completion rate at 9.4 YPA is absurd. He’s also dominating efficient metrics (No. 2 in QBR). His one weakness is that he plays in an offense that distributes the credit. Sayin is simply on a complete team.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama +400
Last week +350
Simpson’s stats are clean, and Alabama keeps winning, but there’s no Heisman pop. His best game (382 yards vs. Wisconsin) is not enough and he’s not doing anything spectacular on the ground. The story is “efficient quarterback of resurgent Alabama.” If Bama wins out and he finishes with 35+ TDs and 2 or fewer INTs, he’s a finalist, but it’s more Mac Jones-type finalist. Simpson is a contender, not a frontrunner — steady but not electric.
Top 3 biggest movers
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M +700
Last week +1100
Reed’s case is intriguing. He’s not the most impactful; he’s the most complete. You remove him and A&M could still win eight games with that defense and backfield. But Reed is playing QB for an 8-0 SEC team that has averaged 40 a game with 23 total touchdowns, with road wins at Notre Dame, Arkansas and LSU — the resume that gets national airtime. While others are holding programs together, Reed is building a playoff resume. That difference is why his odds have real traction. If you’re value-hunting, Reed may be it.
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt +700
Last week +1400
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The move is understandable because people love the underdog story. But this is a classic case of sentiment outpacing reality. Pavia’s numbers (20 total TDs) are solid, not spectacular, and Vanderbilt’s ceiling is capped. The Bama loss already erased the national splash moment he needed. He can stay in conversation, but it’s more of a fun narrative, rather than a winning ticket.
Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech +3000
Last week +7500
I’m not letting this one go. No one’s more indispensable to their team than King. Without him, GT is not 8-0 for the first time since 1966. King’s rushing output (651 yards, 12 TDs) is wild for a QB, making him the heartbeat of the team. The problem is aesthetic, but he’s massively undervalued compared to production. Most valuable player in college football? 100% yes. Unfortunately, he’s also the least likely Heisman winner of the six. Beat Georgia and that’s his ticket.
A new look at the national title odds
Indiana +600
Last week +800
Ohio State deservedly remains the favorite (+225 from +260 last week) but we have a new top two in the national title odds, with Indiana swapping spots with Alabama. I agree with this move because the market has finally caught up to what the numbers have been showing for weeks.
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Indiana has quietly built one of the most complete profiles in the country, ranked first in EPA per play and overall success rate, sitting inside the top 15 on both offense and defense. Mendoza continues to lead with efficiency, while Roman Hemby and the run game keep the offense on schedule. Defensively, Indiana prevents big plays, tackles well in space, and forces opponents to grind for every yard.
There is a legitimate argument that Indiana is the most complete team in college football. A few weeks ago, we backed IU to win at a better price. Even at 6-1, I still see value.
Betting consideration: Texas A&M to win the SEC +185
A couple weeks ago I wrote that I was wrong about Alabama. Not wrong about their flaws, because I still see the same issues I pointed out in August, but wrong about their ceiling. We’ve now seen that version; the offense clicking in rhythm, Simpson operating at full control and the Tide winning games behind efficiency.
But there’s a difference between being good enough to win weekly and being built to win the conference.
At +185, Texas A&M offers that structure. They’re the sharper, more complete team, and the one whose numbers hold up week after week. The Aggies are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, lead the SEC in sack rate, and generate over five yards per rush while holding opponents below four. They can win through the air, they can win in the trenches, and they’ve shown adaptability against multiple styles.
Alabama still lives on reputation. And I get it. Bama has four wins against ranked teams. Winning games is hard but winning them late is harder.
The turnover margin keeps Bama afloat, but their rushing inefficiency and lack of pressure up front limit the ceiling that matters most: championship football.
Alabama as the favorite makes sense but if this market is about sustainability, not nostalgia, the value is clear. Mike Elko’s defense-first structure is built to win a conference that demands physical dominance, adaptability and a complete roster. The Aggies check those boxes right now.
