As a captivating 2025 season heads towards its close, there is still plenty to play for in the upcoming final three rounds of the campaign. Ahead of this all-important triple header – spanning Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi – our writers Lawrence Barretto, Chris Medland, David Tremayne and Alex Jacques have shared their predictions for what could unfold, ranging from who will emerge as World Champion through to the most exciting storylines to keep an eye on…
Who will win the Drivers’ Championship, and can Verstappen beat one – or both – of the McLaren drivers?
Lawrence Barretto (F1 Correspondent & Presenter): Given the form Max Verstappen is currently in – his heroic drive from pit lane to podium in Brazil was another example of just how good he is driving right now – I don’t think you can discount him, even if the Red Bull racer is 49 points adrift with three rounds to go.
But there is no doubt, Lando Norris is the favourite now. He’s finished ahead of McLaren team mate Oscar Piastri in the six events since his painful mechanical DNF in the Netherlands and seems to have come into form at just the right time. But it wasn’t that long ago that Verstappen seemed like he was right in the hunt and, before that, Piastri looked to be in control of the title fight – so in my mind, it’s far from over.
Chris Medland (Special Contributor): At this point it’s getting tough to look past Lando Norris, given the momentum he has built up. It really does feel like Norris has found the consistency that has been lacking at times this year, just as Oscar Piastri has struggled a little more.
Verstappen can still win it, but Las Vegas is going to be crucial for that. He needs a victory and the McLarens struggling in the cold conditions to give him the chance of a big points swing, because I don’t see Qatar being a race weekend where he’s likely to take a significant chunk out of any lead, even if he is able to fight for the win there.
David Tremayne (Hall of Fame F1 Journalist): I think the odds favour Lando now, if he can keep it clean and keep finishing on the podium whatever anyone else does. I can see Max overhauling Oscar, unless the latter can rediscover his mojo. There were signs of good race pace from him in Mexico and Brazil, but he needs to recover his Qualifying form.
Alex Jacques (F1 TV Commentator): All roads currently lead to Lando, but I think we need to take a step back. Oscar has led 15 rounds of this championship and Max Verstappen was the bookmakers’ favourite after Austin. Keeping the momentum has turned out to be the defining feature of this championship, and we still have enough time for it to shift again; just look at 2007 or 1986, for example. It should finish in the current order, but we’ve just seen so many twists to be certain.
Will Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull finish second in the Teams’ Championship?
LB: Brazil was a painful weekend for Ferrari, with the Scuderia arriving at Interlagos in P2 of the Teams’ Championship and leaving in P4 – and it was compounded because Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli and George Russell showed how heavily they can score when the car suits the track. It’s going to be a tight fight between those two for P2 – with Red Bull suffering from only scoring heavily with one car – and given that I expect Ferrari to be strong at Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi, I think the Italian squad might just edge it to steal P2 for the second year on the bounce.
CM: I’ve got to go with Mercedes now. This was a much harder question to answer before Brazil, but Kimi Antonelli’s form has been impressive, and even a tough weekend for George Russell yielded a P3 and a P4. I can’t see Red Bull getting enough points across both cars to close the gap despite the potential for Verstappen to pick up some wins, and Ferrari’s double-DNF looks really costly. They are 36 points behind Mercedes, and would need to match their best score of the season – achieved in the Sprint weekend in the United States – with the Silver Arrows not scoring to draw level again.
DT: I can see Red Bull getting up to second, from Mercedes and Ferrari.
AJ: I think with Vegas and Qatar coming up, twinned with Kimi Antonelli’s strong form in Brazil, Mercedes start as favourites for the runner-up spot. Red Bull are effectively fighting with one car, and Ferrari are having internal battles.
Which team and driver needs to have the strongest showing in the final three races of the season?
LB: Yuki Tsunoda needs a strong end to his campaign to retain a presence on the grid for a sixth successive year with the Red Bull family. The Japanese racer has shown glimmers of a breakthrough, but he had a tough time in Brazil – on a weekend where Verstappen starred once more to show the gulf between them.
From a teams’ perspective, Racing Bulls, Aston Martin, Haas and Kick Sauber are separated by just 20 points with each position in the championship worth several million dollars – and thus all of them need to have a strong end to what has been a very tightly-fought midfield campaign.
CM: Plenty of candidates here for different reasons, but given what’s at stake I’ll go with McLaren and Oscar Piastri. The Australian has had a great season but is just struggling a little at the wrong time, while certain decisions haven’t gone his way either. He’s shown he’s more than a match for Norris for so long this year, but he has to hit back in Las Vegas to prevent his team mate from being able to control the championship fight in the final two rounds.
The reason I include McLaren is both because they didn’t get their strategy quite right with Piastri in Brazil – and they can’t afford to get it wrong for a driver as the title goes down to the wire – and because Verstappen will take advantage of any big errors in general.
DT: Max and Red Bull, if they are to overcome the not insignificant points deficits to Lando and Oscar.
AJ: Yuki Tsunoda could do with a standout drive as he tries to save his F1 career; Lewis Hamilton not standing on the podium once in a Formula 1 season feels impossible; and Franco Colapinto will be desperate not to finish the season without a point. All three will hope for season bests in the final three.
Which storylines are you most excited by in the final three races?
LB: Aside from the tense three-way fight for the Drivers’ Championship, I’m intrigued to see if Lewis Hamilton can put together a smooth weekend and get that first podium in red, or if he or team mate Charles Leclerc can give the famous Italian team their first victory of what has been a challenging season.
CM: Is it boring to say the Drivers’ Championship fight? Especially if Verstappen can drag himself back into a three-way battle heading to the final two rounds. Certainly in Vegas I’m excited to see if he can do that after his charge in Interlagos. Aside from that, the midfield fight has been brilliant this year. The driver in 19th in the Drivers’ standings has 19 points and a top-six finish this year. It’s been so competitive, and I’m looking forward to some more big drives as the final Teams’ positions get sorted out.
DT: The title fight, naturally. That will take precedence over everything else: just how strong Max will be (I suspect very), whether Lando holds firm or cracks, and how much Oscar can find his old form in a car that no longer seems quite so suited to his driving style. How, if necessary, the McLaren drivers can help one another, in extremis. And how will McLaren juggle their wish to let them fight and the desire for their first Drivers’ World Championship since Lewis in 2008?
But also the intra-team fight chez Mercedes, which has been hotting up of late. A strong showing from them in Vegas could also tilt the outcome of the title fight. Ditto Racing Bulls, re intra-team competition.
AJ: Both storylines for the championship are excellent – we’ll either have a new champion with one of the McLaren drivers or the greatest comeback in F1 history. Beyond the obvious, I’m excited to see more giant killing from the rookies. Ollie Bearman and Isack Hadjar have performed brilliantly this year, and no one expected Gabriel Bortoleto to beat Nico Hulkenberg in a Qualifying head-to-head. They’ve been so much fun to watch.
One bold prediction for the final three races of the season…
LB: Kimi Antonelli has been growing in confidence since Mercedes boss Toto Wolff described his performance at Monza as “underwhelming”. He took a superb second in the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, following up his P2 in the Sprint, and I reckon he can go one better and win one of the final events of the season.
CM: We’re still going to have one more shock top-three result. I’m not sure if it will be in a Qualifying session, Sprint or over a Grand Prix distance – the latter probably least likely – but so many teams have shown an ability to just nail everything at certain points, particularly on Sprint weekends, and I just think another midfield driver will pull out an eye-catching performance.
DT: I stand by my pre-season prediction: Kimi will win a race…
AJ: I’ll go with a first career win for Kimi Antonelli.
