Kimi Antonelli has proven to be one of the standout performers during the first half of the 2026 season, the Italian becoming the sport’s youngest-ever championship leader only three rounds into the campaign – a position he has held onto ever since.
It is clear that the Mercedes driver has progressed in comparison to his rookie outing last year – but just how big has his step up been?
Well, our data team have been delving into the numbers to provide an answer to that question.
Their findings make for fascinating reading, with the figures highlighting the significant change in Antonelli’s performance from this season to last – as well as looking at how his development compares to his fellow 2025 rookies….
How Antonelli’s gap to Russell has rapidly reduced
Firstly, to assess Antonelli’s progression, we looked at how the Qualifying pace gap between himself and team mate George Russell during the first half of the current campaign compares to the same stage of the 2025 season.
Perhaps understandably for his maiden outing in Formula 1, the data shows that Antonelli was off the pace of the more experienced Russell at the majority of tracks the sport visited in the first half of last year – the exception being Miami, where the teenager memorably claimed his first Sprint Qualifying pole.
The deficit was at its steepest for Antonelli’s debut weekend in Australia, while he also frequently found himself some distance behind Russell during the European leg, a phase of the campaign that proved tough for the rookie.
However, the picture looks very different in terms of the 2026 numbers. While he did not match Russell in Melbourne again, the gap was significantly reduced in comparison to 12 months earlier – and just one week later in China this season, Antonelli outpaced his team mate en route to his maiden pole position and F1 victory.
The figures show that the 19-year-old has been ahead at seven rounds so far, with his greatest advantage occurring in Belgium – a venue where he experienced one of his largest deficits last year.
He has been outpaced by Russell in Canada, Barcelona and Austria, but on each occasion the gap has been far less than that seen in 2025.
Antonelli’s improvement compared to his fellow 2025 rookies
Our data team also looked at the statistics for how Antonelli’s gap to Russell between this season and last compares to the other rookies he made his F1 debut alongside in 2025.
To do this, we figured out the average pace difference that Ollie Bearman, Gabriel Bortoleto and Franco Colapinto experienced with their respective team mates at Haas, Audi and Alpine, given that all of these drivers have remained at the same squad and with the same fellow driver in both seasons. Isack Hadjar was not included, due to the Frenchman moving to Red Bull from Racing Bulls for 2026.
The figures show that Antonelli has experienced the greatest step, with his pace difference to Russell going from averaging at more than 0.3s behind in 2025 to now being over 0.2s quicker than the Briton during 2026 so far.
There has also been progress for the other rookies, albeit not as vast. Colapinto has closed the gap to Pierre Gasly at Alpine, but the Argentinian remains more than 0.2s adrift of his team mate.
Our data shows that Bearman, meanwhile, was already outpacing Esteban Ocon in 2025 but has increased his advantage further in his sophomore season, with his advantage now standing at over 0.3s.
The figures are perhaps not such good reading for Bortoleto, however, who is now showing as being further off the pace of Nico Hulkenberg than he was in 2025 – albeit only by a marginal amount.
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