I think we’re all aware that the Dodgers need some outfield help. I also think we’re all aware the best free agent on the market is an outfielder. So, why am I basically opposed to the Dodgers signing Kyle Tucker? Let’s dive in.
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On the surface, Tucker looks like a near perfect fit for the Dodgers and what they are doing. He’s still on the right side of 30 (29 in January), hits for power, has great strike-zone judgement and can steal bases. He checks a ton of boxes. But if you dig deeper, there are some areas of concern for him — present and future.
Despite a solid 2025 campaign that saw him hit .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs and a 136 wRC+, it was a tale of two halves for him.
As you can see, he did significantly more of his damage in the first half. If he had maintained that level of production through the second half, it’s entirely possible he’d land a deal of at least $400 million. With his second-half struggles — partly due to a hairline fracture in his right hand that may or may not have fully healed — he’s looking at a payday of only $300-plus million. I jest, but his rather pedestrian second half is of some concern because his power evaporated.
Part of the disappearing power is because he hit the ball on the ground at a much higher rate (42.6 GB%) in the second half compared to the first (30.7%). His launch angle decreased by 6 degrees and his fly ball rate dipped by 11.5 percentage points. What’s also perplexing about this is his BABIP actually decreased by almost 40 points despite hitting the ball on the ground that much more than the first half. His average ground ball exit velo and HardHit% dipped from the first half, so that helps explain the lower BABIP. It was just a poor second half for the outfielder.
Something else to monitor with his bat is his declining exit velocity — both average and maximum. Here are his percentile rankings since 2021 (his first full non-COVID season):
Average EV2021: 85th2022: 69th2023: 68th2024: 80th*2025: 53rd*- Did not qualify; had same exit velo as Jurickson Profar (91.1 MPH)
Max EV2021: 79th2022: 75th2023: 59th2024: 36th2025: 39th
Not great for a hitter who has premium on-base skills but saw his isolated power dip below .200 for the first time since his 72-plate appearance MLB debut in 2018. The good thing about Tucker is he walks a lot and doesn’t strikeout a lot. His .198 ISO is still well above-average, but you’re basically getting the outfield version of Freddie Freeman (again, not bad!), minus the BABIP, for the Manny Machado price. Tucker still has 20-plus home run pop, but we may never see him top 30 home runs, as that’s his career-best (2021 and 2022).
Surely his defense didn’t slump, right? I have bad news for you.
Tucker dealt with a shin issue with the Astros in 2024 that was misdiagnosed and cost him most of the season. It also cost him his sprint speed and had a negative impact on his outfield range. But his speed and range issues began in 2022. in fact, 2022 was the last time he posted a positive FanGraphs’ Defensive WAR (3.6). Since then, his dWAR has taken a big hit:
2023: -9.6
2024: -0.9
2025: -5.1
Conversely, his other defensive metrics are also trending the wrong direction:
DRS
2023: 22024: 72025: -1
OAA2023: -42024: 22025: -2
The fact is, he just might not be a good defender anymore. Of course, he isn’t going to land a mega deal based on his glove, but it was an added benefit that helped make him one of the true 5-tool players in the sport. It also means that, while he’d still be a defensive upgrade over Teoscar Hernandez, he may not be as substantial an upgrade as it might seem.
Despite the reduced sprint speed, he still stole 25 bases — tied for 2nd-most in his career. He did so in 28 attempts. In fact, he’s 119-for-135 in his career, good for a Chase Utleyan 88.1% success rate. The Dodgers had a solid 77.8% success rate as a team in 2025, so that part of Tucker’s game would be a welcome addition.
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At least with Freeman, we knew there was going to be a decline in power as he entered his mid-30s. Tucker isn’t even 30 yet and has already seen a bit of a decline. With all things being equal, Cody Bellinger might be the better option for any team — not just the Dodgers — going forward. You’ll get 70-75% of Tucker’s offensive production and substantially better defense for more than half the cost in years and money.
Tucker’s going to get his bag. It might be from the Dodgers, it might be from the Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies or someone else. But this is more of a buyer beware moment, and while it’d be easy for the Dodgers to throw money at their lack of outfield production, Tucker may not be the right guy for them. Then again, the free-agent options are so limited that the Dodgers might be more willing to take a chance on him to take advantage of their World Series window even more than they already have.
If the Dodgers sign Tucker, I won’t be upset. I just don’t think he’s the best option nor do I really think they’ll sign him.
