Every big haul or flashy performance tempts FPL managers into chasing last week’s points, but GW13 is exactly when that kind of thinking can hurt your season, writes Fantasy Premier League expert Blake Hurst. This week there are several popular names with shaky minutes, overperforming xG or horrible upcoming fixtures that make them far riskier holds than they look on the surface. Rather than squeezing them into your squad just because they’re ‘in form’, treat them as what they are: short-term traps. These are the five players to sell if you own them, or hard avoid if you don’t, so you can focus on transfers on assets with sustainable numbers and strong schedules.
Eberechi Eze (7.7m)
Eberechi Eze’s hat-trick against Spurs was unbelievable to watch, but in FPL terms he still looks like an avoid rather than a buy. That haul came from around 0.2xG, which is the definition of running hot rather than showing sustainable underlying numbers. He is a naturally clinical finisher and has a habit of beating xG, but with Martin Odegaard back in the mix his minutes and central role are at even greater risk in the short term. With Chelsea looming on the schedule, this feels like one of those classic ‘enjoy the highlights, don’t chase the points’ situations – not a sell if you somehow already own him, but definitely not someone to bring in right now.
Ismaïla Sarr (6.7m)
Ismaïla Sarr has started to feel like a luxury rather than a core pick right now. The recent underlying numbers tell the story: around 1xG in his last six Gameweeks, 10 shots in total and only a couple of big chances is nowhere near what managers expected when they brought him in as a midfield option. That doesn’t scream ’emergency sell’, but it does suggest his spot is very expendable if you have a free transfer or two. This isn’t about the fixture or a knee-jerk over one bad game; it’s simply that, at this stage of the season, there are more explosive midfield options emerging that can use that spot more effectively.
João Pedro (7.5m)
Joao Pedro now looks like a sell if you want to be ruthless with value in that forward slot. Over his last six Premier League matches he has produced roughly 3.1xG but only two actual goals, which underlines that he is getting chances but not really out-performing the underlying numbers in a way that justifies his price when you factor in Chelsea’s attack being shared around. With the best defence in the league up next and several similarly priced forwards offering either better fixtures or more explosive xG returns over the same period, moving him on feels like a proactive play rather than a sideways shuffle.
Reece James (5.5m)
Reece James now feels like the kind of sell that makes sense if you’re looking to be proactive. Arsenal is a tough fixture on its own, and with a packed schedule that includes Leeds midweek, there’s a fair chance he sees managed minutes or even a benching. On top of that, he just isn’t delivering the attacking threat managers know he’s capable of – the crosses, shots and big chances aren’t really there right now. He’s not a ‘panic sell’, but if you’ve got a free transfer and decent alternatives lined up, this looks like a good moment to move on and chase a more explosive defender.
Callum Wilson (5.8m)
Callum Wilson feels like he’s on a hot streak right now. Yes, he’s just come off a couple of goals, but the minutes still look fragile with Niclas Füllkrug back in the picture and likely to eat into his starts and game time. On top of that, the fixtures turn nasty fast: Liverpool, Manchester United, Brighton and Aston Villa in the next four is a brutal run for any striker, let alone one with uncertain minutes. He can always nick a goal, but given the risk around game time and the tough schedule ahead, this looks like a hard avoid and invest that money into a more secure, explosive forward.
