Championship weekend revealed each team’s identity — brutally, honestly, cleanly and without room for imagination. We saw … confirmation. The teams that won their matchups won because of the identity they’ve had all season, sustained under pressure.
If we look ahead to the College Football Playoff, the blueprint from the weekend tells us what we need to know. Here’s what actually mattered, why it works and how to think about it from a betting perspective.
Georgia: Proving that control is a skill
Odds to win CFP: +600
The Bulldogs beat Alabama Crimson Tide with suffocation. Alabama finished with -3 rushing yards, converted 3 of 14 third downs and never dictated a single possession. The SEC Championship was a mismatch in physical identity.
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Georgia QB Gunner Stockton simply needed stability. Georgia’s front dictated the terms, and Bama’s one-dimensional offense finally hit the wall I’ve been screaming about all season, what the metrics have been hinting at since September.
Will it scale in the CFP? Yes. Teams that can win early down and eliminate rushing efficiency are built for national title contention.
Georgia betting angle: Watch the opponent’s first-down success. Georgia can turn the game into a slow leak, which means team total unders, opponent rushing unders and live unders when Georgia controls tempo all become actionable.
Alabama: In the playoff, but concerns on offense
Odds: Dec. 19 at Oklahoma (+1.5, 41.5)Win CFP: +2800
Alabama makes the bracket, but nothing about Saturday suggests a breakthrough. The Tide’s offense struggled to create clean rushing lanes, couldn’t stay ahead of the sticks and became predictable once Georgia took away early-down efficiency. The Tide can still compete because their defense keeps games tight, but their scoring ceiling is this when forced out of neutral script.
Alabama betting angle: Alabama struggles when the opponent can win with four up front, eliminate easy throws, force long-yardage situations and take away the threat of balance. Well, who do they play in the first round? Noted.
Texas Tech: Winning because they dictate the script
Odds to win CFP: +800
Texas Tech walked the game exactly where it wanted it to go and closed every door the BYU Cougars needed to stay alive. This matchup was always about structure. BYU requires pace control, early-down leverage and a functional run game to operate. The Cougars managed that for a bit, but the moment Tech disrupted any of that formula, the BYU offense collapsed.
TeamOddsOhio State+240Indiana+250Georgia+600Oregon+750Texas Tech+800Texas A&M+1800Ole Miss+2500Alabama+2800Miami+2800Oklahoma+5500James Madison+50000Tulane+60000
BYU finished with 63 rushing yards, couldn’t generate explosive plays and had zero answers once the game tilted into passing downs. Turnovers happened, sure, but Tech’s front won naturally, its coverage erased easy throws and the game shifted into a version BYU has no tools for. That’s what dictating script looks like: forcing your opponent into an identity they can’t play.
Will it scale in the CFP? Tech’s run defense and pass rush make the Red Raiders the type of team that can tilt the field against anyone.
Texas Tech betting angle: Tech’s defense removes variance. The Red Raiders take away your Plan A and dare you to win with a Plan B you don’t have. It’s why BYU’s team total under was live from the first snap and why Tech will continue to be a strong matchup-dependent team, especially against offenses that need the run to survive.
Indiana: Don’t mistake low scoring for low ceiling
Odds to win CFP: +250
The Hoosiers shocked the Ohio State Buckeyes because they forced them to be a one-dimensional team. Stopping the run wasn’t a priority, it was the entire strategy. Ohio State finished with 58 rushing yards. When it can’t create balance, it can’t create rhythm. Indiana used that to shorten the game, settle into structure and out execute in the red zone.
Will it scale in the CFP? Indiana proved it can force opponents into a slower, heavier brand of football. If your offense needs rhythm, pace or chunk plays to function, Indiana will pull you out of that comfort zone fast. The Hoosiers’ style reduces possession and tightens margins, creating friction where Indiana thrives.
Indiana betting angle: This is an under team until proven otherwise. Opponents team total under, game under and Indiana plus points against fast-paced teams.
Ohio State: Extremely talented roster without an offensive identity
Odds to win CFP: +240
The Buckeyes enter the postseason with a potential issue: they can’t run the ball well enough to control a high-stakes game. Indiana exposed that by forcing OSU into a pass-heavy look, something elite playoff defenses replicate quickly. The roster is loaded, but the offense lacks rhythm, balance and audibility when the run game stalls.
Ohio State betting angle: The Buckeyes’ matchups trend under when facing strong fronts, and its team carries risk in any game where it can’t establish balance.
Tulane: Stability can travel
Odds: Dec. 20 at Ole Miss (-16.5, 55.5)Win CFP: +60000
Tulane beat the North Texas Mean Green because it protected the ball and forced UNT to play an inefficient game with no margin for error. Five UNT turnovers turned a statistical advantage into a scoreboard defeat. That’s the Green Wave identity: clean football, minimal risk, force the opponent to make the first mistake.
Will it scale in the CFP? Against elite defenses, Tulane will need help in the form of short fields, field position and mistake-free possessions.
Tulane betting angle: Tulane could be a live ‘dog to cover, but I wouldn’t go as far to say win. The Green Wave’s profile screams big underdog value, yes, but their ceiling caps their team total.
James Madison: A trench team that could surprise
Odds: Dec. 20 at Oregon (-20.5, 51.5)Win CFP: +50000
The numbers for JMU say everything. They had 318 rushing yards in the Sun Belt title game. You don’t fake that. JMU asserts that.
The Dukes dominated the Troy Trojans at the point of attack, turning the game into a controlled avalanche. This is a complete roster executing a complete plan.
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Will it scale in the CFP? I think more than most will admit. Physicality ages well. Predictability, in this case, is a weapon. Against elite defenses, sure, the margin tightens because those units take away early-down efficiency and force offenses to diversify. JMU hasn’t shown a consistent counter when the run game gets squeezed, and that limits how far its current formula can really stretch.
James Madison betting angle: JMU is a pace dictator. It compresses games and controls total points, which could work out in low-possession environments. The Dukes can keep games close because their style drains the clocks. Under on the team total, first quarter unders, first half unders and even small underdog spreads — those are the angles.
Final thought
When betting the playoff games, don’t chase emotion, chase identity. The teams who stay undeniably themselves are the ones who stayed true to the thing they do better than anyone they played. For Georgia, it’s control; Texas Tech: structure; Tulane: stability; JMU: physicality; Indiana: compression.
