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College basketball ranking prediction: Michigan set to vault to top of AP Top 25

December 8, 2025
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Another week in college basketball puts voters in the Associated Press Top 25 college basketball rankings in yet another quandary about which team is deserving of the No. 1 spot. And after No. 1 Purdue’s 81-58 home loss this weekend to No. 10 Iowa State, the list of worthy contenders to supplant the Boilermakers is especially long. 

Will it be an 8-0 Arizona team that’s now armed with four ranked wins after a 97-68 dismantling of Auburn on Saturday? The Wildcats have been No. 2 in the poll for two consecutive weeks.

Will it be 8-0 Michigan, which has four consecutive wins of 30 or more — among them Auburn and Gonzaga?

Could Iowa State, leading the country in scoring margin and fresh off a road win over Purdue in Mackey Arena, make the leap up nine spots? You’d be hard-pressed to find a hotter team.

Speaking of hot: There’s also 10-0 Duke. Matt Norlander argued Duke has the best resume in college basketball after downing Michigan State in East Lansing on Saturday. He might be right. 

Oh, the suspense! 

Here’s a snapshot at the resumes for some of the teams entering Monday. There’s a good chance all four could earn first-place votes. 

TEAM Record Ranked Wins Last Week’s Rank Scoring Margin RankMichigan8-0233Arizona8-04210Duke10-0444Iowa State9-02101

We’ll officially find out Monday at noon ET when the AP Top 25 poll is released. But unofficially, my projections on how I think voters will handle the rankings — not how I would rank the teams, to be clear, but how I think the rankings will settle after voters cast their ballots — are below. 

How Iowa State, sparked by an underrated freshman, pulled off an historic upset of No. 1 Purdue

Isaac Trotter

How Iowa State, sparked by an underrated freshman, pulled off an historic upset of No. 1 Purdue

And my guess at No. 1? Voters — who gave Michigan the second-most first-place votes last week behind Purdue — will bump the Wolverines from No. 3 to No. 1. The voting will be close and Duke, Michigan and Arizona could all be nearly-identical in final points. But the Wolverines had the edge in first-place votes last week over Arizona, and I suspect another drubbing of its opponent this week could give it more separation.



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