After 14 weeks, five rankings and a chaotic selection day, the 2025 College Football Playoff is finally here. The second edition of a 12-team field brings two Group of 5 teams, a new No. 1 for the postseason and five teams from the SEC alone.
But how do bettors make sense of all the chaos?
To break it down, Pamela Maldonado gives us the outlook for the field (including a strength and a fault for each team), David Purdum has some intel on what sportsbooks are seeing post-selection day and Joe Fortenbaugh and Maldonado team up give us their best bets for the playoff.
Jump aheadTeam outlooks | Odds and ends | Best bets
Strengths and fault lines
It’s time to ignore résumés and think about traits. Every team that survives playoff football has one defining feature that scales under pressure, or that one flaw that can erupt when the lights get bright.
Strip away the records, and the postseason becomes a study in who can dictate style and withstand disruption, and who collapses the moment the game leaves their script.
This 12-team field is full of strengths but even fuller of fault lines, and that’s where the separation starts. Here’s a quick look at each playoff team.
James Madison Dukes: JMU’s playoff fate hinges on being almost completely run-dependent. The Dukes’ run game is elite and their defense is top-tier, but a passing grade outside the top 60 exposes a ceiling problem. If an opponent forces them into obvious passing situations, their entire identity cracks.
Oregon Ducks: The Ducks’ calling card is offensive completeness. A top-four passing grade and the best run grade in the country make them one of the hardest teams to defend. But their flaw comes from a defense that bends rather than dictates. Oregon’s middling run defense and pass rush are liabilities.
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Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Red Raiders’ defining trait is total defensive dominance. No. 1 in the run defense, tackling, coverage and the best pass rush in all of college. TTU erases everything you have, suffocates and humiliates. Add 31 takeaways, and you get the most playoff-stable profile in the field.
Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide have an inability to generate pressure, as ranking in the bottom five is a fatal flaw against elite quarterbacks. Their coverage is excellent — but coverage without pressure eventually breaks. Pair that with a below-average run game and inconsistent offense, and Bama becomes a team dependent on low tempo and low possession games to thrive.
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners have a front seven that disrupts rhythm and ranks in the top 15, and it’s paired with a run defense strong enough to force opponents into predictability. The problem is their offense. Bottom-tier passing, rushing and blocking make OU vulnerable to any defense that can match physicality.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers’ strength is having balance at a championship level. They are top-10 in passing, rushing, run defense, tackling, coverage and elite run blocking, which means every angle is covered offensively and defensively — giving them no obvious weaknesses. Their profile scales better than any team because they can win fast, slow, physical or in finesse-style of games without losing identity.
Tulane Green Wave: The harsh truth is that Tulane has a defense that can’t hold up under playoff pressure. With a run defense graded 101st, tackling in the 80s and coverage in the 70s, the Green Wave will likely be waved out of the first round, overwhelmed by an offense with structure. Once the guys on the other side establish rhythm, Tulane has no counterpunch.
Ole Miss Rebels: The Rebels’ offensive explosiveness is trapped inside flawed trench play. They can score on anyone by having competent passing and rushing efficiency, but a run block grade of 95th and a pass rush grade barely inside the top 100 create volatility. Against physical teams, their style collapses through four quarters.
Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs’ playoff hinges on straight up disruption. They can absolutely smother teams that need rhythm (as witnessed against Alabama) but when they face a quarterback who thrives without it, their style gets tested. In a semifinal or a title game, one opponent with off-script creation can stress this front in ways that Alabama never could.
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Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes are the definition of high-end volatility driven by elite pass rush and terrible tackling. They can overwhelm offensive lines with pressure, but missed tackles (114th) create explosives from the other side. Their offense is steady enough to capitalize, but their defensive inconsistency makes them dangerous as an underdog but unreliable as an underdog upset.
Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies have trench competence without trench dominance. They have a strong pass rush and solid run defense, which allows them to muddy games, but having a bottom-tier passing grade limits their ability to capitalize on stops. They’re the classic spoiler team: tough enough to drag contenders into uncomfortable games, but not dynamic enough to win a playoff slugfest.
Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are precision without chaos. Elite in almost everything: passing efficiency, run blocking, run defense, tackling, but lack in creating pressure, which caps their ability to dictate games on defense against stronger offensive opponents. They win when the game stays clean and scripted, but also struggle when opponents force creativity and balance.
Odds and ends
The opening lines for the first-round games varied at sportsbooks, especially on the Alabama-Oklahoma game. DraftKings Sportsbook opened the Sooners as 1.5-point favorites, while other bookmakers installed the Crimson Tide as small favorites. The consensus line on Monday was Alabama -1.5, but some sportsbooks had the game listed at pick ’em, and others had the Sooners as small favorites.
Oddsmakers estimated that the loss of coach Lane Kiffin would impact point spreads on Ole Miss games by as much as four points, but it appears to be even more. The Rebels were 23.5-point favorites over Tulane in a convincing 45-10 win over the Green Wave on Sept. 20. Ole Miss opened as a 16.5-point favorite over Tulane in their first-round matchup.
Oregon was installed as a 21-point favorite over James Madison, the largest spread of the four first-round games. If the line holds at 20 or more, it would be the largest point spread on a CFP game ever. The Ducks have won 43 straight games outright when favored by at least 20 points. They are 14-7 against the spread in such games under coach Dan Lanning.
Joey Feazel, who oversees football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Sunday that they saw minimal early action on the first-round point spreads. “Bettors tend to wait for more information and market movement before committing,” Feazel said. “As the lines have started to settle, we’ve seen some notable shifts: Ole Miss has dipped below the key number of 17, now sitting at -16.5, while Texas A&M has ticked up from -3 to -4.”
Texas A&M is 5-7 against the spread this season, the worst ATS mark of any of the 12 teams in the CFP. The Aggies are just 2-5 ATS at home. — Purdum
Best bets
Oklahoma Sooners (+1.5) over Alabama Crimson Tide
This game kicks off in Norman, Oklahoma, at 7 p.m. local time on Dec. 19 with a current total of 40.5. So, given the information we have in front of us at the moment — cold temperatures likely, low-scoring likely — which of the following options would you be more inclined to back with your hard-earned money:
I’ll side with Oklahoma to win the rematch, especially with quarterback John Mateer getting 20 days of rest in preparation for this game. — Fortenbaugh
Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5) over Miami Hurricanes
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The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff saw first-round home teams go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread while winning by an average of 19.2 points per game. On top of that, those four winners covered the closing point spread by an astounding 10.2 points per game. Needless to say, home-field advantage in this sport for this playoff format is extremely valuable.
This is a good buy-low spot for A&M following its end-of-season loss to Texas that is still fresh in everybody’s mind. Perhaps more importantly, it can’t be overstated how much I don’t trust Miami head coach Mario Cristobal in high-leverage, late-game scenarios. — Fortenbaugh
Indiana to win National Championship (+250)
HODL. I’m sticking with my midseason call. After Week 7, I grabbed Indiana (+900) to win the national title.
Nothing since has changed that conviction. Indiana looks like a championship team: balanced, efficient, physical, turnover-creating and built to win in any style.
The national title odds: Ohio State +240, Indiana +250, Georgia +600, Texas Tech +800. These odds say there’s no super team, no true favorite.
The odds to make the semifinal: Indiana at (-320) is appropriate because it’s a “who can actually beat them” type of team. Ohio State (-260) is pure tax for a team that stalls against elite fronts and relies on rhythm and explosives.
My read: Indiana is still the most complete matchup team. Ohio State is the most fragile favorite. Georgia is overpriced. Texas Tech is dangerous, but limited by style. — Maldonado
Oregon to win National Championship (+750)
The best prediction is undoubtedly Indiana to win. But the best value? Oregon.
Oregon has the one offensive profile that can break TTU’s defensive script and inject enough variance to threaten Indiana in a single-game sample.
The Ducks aren’t the best team in the field, but they are the team whose odds don’t match their upset equity. That’s what +750 buys: mispriced probability, not a forecast.
Prediction is Indiana, but the value is Oregon. — Maldonado
