Bracketology: Wisconsin in field of 68; Vanderbilt jumps to a No. 1 seed

Wisconsin changed the complexion of its season Saturday by handing No. 2 Michigan its first loss in a stunning 91-88 road upset of the Wolverines. The win sent the Badgers surging 13 spots in the NET, up to No. 40, and breathed life into a previously unimpressive resume.

As a result, the Badgers have cracked the field of 68 as a No. 10 seed in the latest CBS Sports Bracketology simulation. Wisconsin is still just 1-5 in Quad 1, but the Badgers are 10-0 in all other games, and their lone Quad 1 victory isn’t of the garden variety.

Taking down this wagon of a Michigan team is going to carry some serious weight on Selection Sunday. Even after the loss, Michigan is somewhat remarkably still rated No. 1 at KenPom.com and in the NET rankings ahead of four unbeaten high-major teams in both metrics.

It’s a testament to just how dominant Michigan was during a roughly six-week stretch that included six victories of 18+ points against high-major opposition. After nearly losing at Penn State and then falling at home to Wisconsin, the Wolverines clearly have some things to clean up. 

But for now, our CBS Sports Bracketology model has Michigan sticking as the No. 1 overall seed.

Bracketology top seeds

The NCAA Tournament field and seeding as projected by SportsLine’s Bracketology simulation

On the bubble

Last four in

First four out

Bracketology takeaways

Kentucky’s resume takes a hit

While Kentucky played some of its best basketball of the season on Saturday by rallying from an early 12-point deficit to throttle Mississippi State 92-68, its resume actually took a hit over the weekend. UK’s Dec. 13 home win over Indiana slipped from a Quad 1 win to a Quad 2 win after the Hoosiers fell from No. 30 in the NET to No. 35 following their loss to Nebraska on Saturday. Similarly, Missouri dropped from No. 69 in the NET to No. 77 following its loss against a previously struggling Ole Miss team. As a result, the Wildcats’ Jan. 7 home loss to Mizzou is considered a Quad 3 loss for the time being.

At 10-6 (1-2 SEC), Kentucky is a No. 10 seed heading into Wednesday’s game at LSU. The Tigers are among the “First Four Out,” which makes it a massive game for both teams. With a road game at Tennessee up next, UK can ill-afford a loss against a banged-up LSU squad.

Surging Saint Louis

Saint Louis has the same head coach (Josh Schertz) and same star player (Robbie Avila) as the Indiana State team that was cruelly left on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble in 2024. This time around, the duo are building an even stronger resume. The Billikens are a projected No. 7 seed after improving to 15-1 (3-0 A-10) with an 84-72 win at La Salle on Saturday. SLU’s only loss is a one-point neutral-site loss in November against a Stanford team that is also in the CBS Sports Bracketology field.

The road ahead is littered with the same landmines that exist for every mid-,ajor team forced to navigate two months of low-end conference fare while trying to hold together a postseason resume. But the Billikens already took care of what may be their toughest Atlantic 10 challenge by knocking off VCU on the road last week for a Quad 1 win. It would only be fitting if Schertz and Avila got across the finish line this time and reached the Big Dance. 

Texas’ Pope is preaching

Texas’ 92-88 win at Alabama came in just behind Wisconsin’s win at Michigan for the weekend’s most significant upset in a high-major game. The Longhorns desperately needed a victory of that caliber to jumpstart Year 1 of the Sean Miller era. When Jordan Pope gets going, watch out. In Texas’ two Quad 1 wins (NC State and Alabama), the senior guard has made 13 of 26 attempts from 3-point range. He hit seven in a 102-97 win over the Wolfpack on Nov. 26 and six against the Crimson Tide, finishing both games with 28 points. 

All of a sudden, the Longhorns (10-6, 1-2 SEC) have crept into First Four Out territory as they enter a Wednesday home showdown with Vanderbilt. Beating Bama vaulted this team 23 spots in the NET. Stacking a win over the Commodores next to it would be mighty impressive for a team that’s been on a rocky ride for the season’s past two months. Texas still rates abysmally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, coming in at 119th nationally, which is last in the SEC. But with a little corrective action there, Miller’s squad could make some noise.