Doing this Opening Day roster projection last year was an absolute mess specifically for the Dodgers due to all the special rules around the Tokyo Series roster. Fortunately, this year things are straight forward as the season just starts on March 26*.
*Granted, the WBC has the chance to really mess things up, as Edwin Diaz can attest.
With pitchers and catchers set to report on February 13, and the rest of the team coming in on February 17, it seemed like as good a time as any to take a guess at how things will look to start the quest for a three-peat.
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Position Player Locks (10)
I gotta admit, when I initially began this exercise I thought the position players side of things would be essentially set. However, as the Andy Ibanez saga showed, there’s still a bunch of question marks around the fringes of the roster.
That said, these 10 guys are making the team, barring a trade or injury. That would probably leave three spots open for position players.
Position Player Candidates (9)
Including Call here is being extremely cautious, solely because he does have options remaining, but it would probably take a lot for him to not make the team as the fourth outfielder. Edman is more of a question just because he had off-season ankle surgery that he’s still recovering from, and there’s absolutely no rush for him to return by Opening Day. Similarly, Enrique is recovering from off-season elbow surgery, so even if we assume he’s being signed, it’s highly unlikely he’s ready for Opening Day.
The injuries could end up leaving the door wide open for two of Kim, Freeland, and Ward to compete for the right to showcase themselves to both the Dodgers brass and the 29 other teams watching that they deserve playing time in the majors.
Another wrinkle is if Ibanez ends up returning to the team, because if he does, he likely would have an inside track to making Opening Day.
Pitcher Locks (9)
With the Dodgers, it’s always possible they slow play any pitcher to begin the season, but these are basically the guys who are reportedly healthy.
While a combination of Banda’s middling performance last year and the depth of lefty relievers currently in the organization would normally exclude him from being a lock, he’s out of options and I doubt the Dodgers want to just give him away. Thus, he’s in.
That would essentially leave two rotation spots and three bullpen spots open for a gaggle of candidates.
Pitcher Candidates (18)
Rotation (6): Roki Sasaki, River Ryan, Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Cole Irvin
Bullpen (8): Jack Dreyer, Ben Casparius, Will Klein, Edgardo Henriquez, Kyle Hurt, Bobby Miller, Paul Gervase, Ronan Kopp
Health Questions (3): Blake Snell, Brusdar Graterol, Brock Stewart
Unsigned (1): Evan Phillips
This is where things could get messy.
If he’s healthy, then obviously Snell is a lock for the rotation, but he recently talked about his shoulder like he might start the year on the IL. Roki is another obvious fit on the roster, but between his struggles last year, Dave Roberts mentioning that he needs to develop a third pitch, and him having options makes it a possibility that he’s sent down. I still think Roki starts the year in the majors, but it’ll likely be something of a competition between him, Ryan coming off Tommy John plus Stone coming off shoulder surgery, and then Wrobleski for the two hypothetically open spots.
In the pen, Dreyer was great for the Dodgers all of last year, but he has options and the Dodgers have many lefty relievers, so it’s at least a possibility he gets sent down. Despite having options, Graterol can’t be sent down without consent due to service time, but he’s a question just due to his arm health. We should know more about Graterol’s status as Spring Training gets underway, but if he’s not on the IL then he’s a lock.
That could mean there’s just one spot open between Casparius, Klein, Henriquez, Hurt, and even Wrobleski. An enviable position for any team. That depth is the reason the Dodgers can afford to be cautious with guys coming back like Graterol, as any of those pitchers listed would probably be a lock for most pens around the league.
Something of a wild card would be Phillips returning, and the depth depicted here wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle to him signing because he’s still recovering from Tommy John and would be placed on the 60-day IL. The longer he goes without signing, the more likely it seems that might be the plan.
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26-Man Roster
Rotation (5): Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan, Roki Sasaki, River Ryan
Bullpen (8): Edwin Diaz, Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda, Jack Dreyer, Ben Casparius, Will Klein
Catchers (2): Will Smith, Dalton Rushing
Infielders (5): Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, Alex Freeland
Outfielders (4): Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages, Alex Call
Utility (1): Hyeseong Kim
Shohei Ohtani (1 Of A Kind): Shohei Ohtani
For the rotation, I don’t think they insult Roki by sending him down unless he’s terrible in Spring Training, and I think Ryan emerges to win the last rotation spot. Stone is a possibility, but shoulder injuries are more of a question mark. For the pen, I’m going with chalk in terms of guys who have the most experience/familiarity. I took Klein over Henriquez and Hurt as the last man because the latter are guys the Dodgers feel more likely to deem necessary of development/recovery, but certainly it’ll depend on how they all look in Spring Training. Wrobleski is an option, but I don’t think they want him toiling as a swingman.
Meanwhile, with Ibanez is limbo for now, Kim and Freeland are the picks to make the roster due to experience/familiarity. That said, if Ibanez returns to the team he might make it to Opening Day over Freeland.
The Others
IL (4): Blake Snell, Brusdar Graterol, Brock Stewart, Tommy Edman
Limbo (1): Andy Ibanez
Unsigned (2): Evan Phillips, Enrique Henrandez
It’s possible that all of Snell, Graterol, and Edman are ready by Opening Day, and we’ll find out more as Spring Training goes along, but right now I just don’t see the incentive for the Dodgers to push them.
I also think/hope all three players whose statuses with the team are currently unknown eventually end up with the Dodgers, as it would really help the team achieve their goal of having almost comical depth.
Regardless of how it shakes out, the roster of the Dodgers figures to be … well, decent.
Discuss.
