Bracketology Bubble Watch: Miami (Ohio) beats Bowling Green, remains undefeated

No. 22 Miami (Ohio) began a busy weekend of bubble action in college basketball on Friday night by improving to 27-0 with a 91-77 win over Bowling Green. With zero Quad 1 wins on their resume, the Redhawks’ margin for error remains slim. But that’s been the case all season, and it hasn’t deterred Miami from reaching perfection thus far.

The night was less joyous for VCU, which remained just on the wrong side of the bubble after a 88-75 loss at No. 18 Saint Louis. The Rams led 42-33 at halftime but were flummoxed by the Billikens in the second half of a pivotal Atlantic 10 battle. Those results serve as table setters for a massive Saturday around the country.

As college basketball’s regular season heads down the stretch, the NCAA Tournament bubble is popping. Every day is bringing a new wrinkle to the picture along the cut line for the field of 68, and the CBS Sports Bracketology model remains on top of it all.

The at-large fate of a couple dozen teams is up in the air, with big brands such as Auburn and UCLA fighting for their lives, just to name a couple. Saturday’s results will bring a new shakeup to the picture.Here is the full bubble breakdown entering a busy day.  

Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub

All times ET

Bubble teams in action Saturday

Missouri

Saturday at No. 20 Arkansas | 4 p.m. (ESPN)Entering the weekend: Last Four InGame status: Quad 1

Missouri picked up another “Quad 1A” win on Wednesday against Vanderbilt, which adds to a tally that also includes victories over Florida and at Kentucky. At 18-8 (8-5 SEC), the Tigers are held back by a soft nonconference slate that included eight Quad 4 games. But they have clearly demonstrated some high-end potential and could do so again by taking down Arkansas on the road. If not, a big home game game with Tennessee is up next.

USC

Saturday vs. Oregon | 4 p.m. (FS1)Entering the weekend: No. 11 seedGame status: Quad 3

Illinois ran USC off its own floor on Wednesday night by a score of 101-65. Other than a Jan. 25 win at Wisconsin, which is aging well, the Trojans don’t have another victory over a team currently expected to make the Big Dance. The status of leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara is a huge storyline here. The well-traveled wing has missed three straight games for what’s been termed as a knee strain. USC should beat Oregon with or without Baker-Mazara, but his status will be key moving forward.

TCU

Saturday vs. West Virginia | 5 p.m. (Peacock)Entering the weekend: Last Four InGame status: Quad 2

TCU’s roller-coaster resume includes wins over Florida and Iowa State along with losses to New Orleans, Notre Dame and Utah. Most recently, the Horned Frogs took an 82-71 loss at UCF on Tuesday. That’s a non-fatal Quad 1 loss, but it ratchets up the pressure on TCU to hold serve against West Virginia and Arizona State at home over the next few days. The demonstration of some consistency would likely be reassuring to the selection committee as it seeks to decipher a wonky resume.

West Virginia

Saturday at TCU | 5 p.m. (Peacock)Entering the weekend: Next Four OutGame status: Quad 1

Given West Virginia’s controversial exclusion last season, Mountaineers fans are likely bracing for impact here. After a 61-56 Quad 3 home loss to Utah on Wednesday, they should be. WVU is in desperation mode as it heads to TCU for a must-win game. It would take a strong finish — think 4-1 — to get WVU back in the mix heading into the Big 12 Tournament. Undersized flamethrower Honor Huff needs to get on a legendary heater from 3-point range.

Seton Hall

Saturday vs. Georgetown | 6 p.m. (FS1)Entering the day: Next Four OutGame status: Quad 3

Seton Hall’s Wednesday home loss against DePaul plunged the Pirates into desperation mode. Their resume metrics are hovering in the mid-to-high 50s, and their predictive metrics are in the same neighborhood. Beating Georgetown won’t help much, but losing to the Hoyas would likely be the final straw. Beating UConn on the road on Feb. 28 is Seton Hall’s best hope for a life raft.

San Diego State

Saturday at Colorado State | 6 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)Entering the day: Next Four OutGame status: Quad 2

You might expect a road game against Colorado State to fall in Quad 1. But because the Rams (16-10, 7-8 Mountain West) are lagging a bit in the NET, this is a Quad 2 game for San Diego State. If the Aztecs take care of business here, they will be in position to make a late charge since they have likely Quad 1 showdowns with Utah State, New Mexico and Boise State on deck.

Cal

Saturday vs. Stanford | 6 p.m. (ACC Network)Entering the day: First Four OutGame status: Quad 2

Beating Stanford is always important for Cal, but this one has extra meaning since the Bears are trying to fight their way back into field. The home stretch is fairly light from a scheduling perspective, so Cal needs to stack some victories if it wants to enter the ACC Tournament with legitimate at-large hope.

UCLA

Saturday vs. No. 10 Illinois | 8 p.m. (Fox)Entering the weekend: No. 9 seedGame status: Quad 1

UCLA is hanging on to the last No. 9 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology, but the Bruins have little margin for error. Where they sit, the bubble gets steep in a hurry. After taking two blowout losses on a trip to Michigan, UCLA now must contend with an Illinois team that has been hanging out in southern California for a few days since drubbing USC 101-65.

New Mexico

Saturday at Fresno State | 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)Entering the weekend: Last Four InGame status: Quad 3

A likely Quad 1 showdown at Nevada is up next, but New Mexico can’t afford to look ahead as it travels to face a Fresno State team that could play a spoiler role. The Lobos average out at around 46th in both resume and predictive metrics, which puts them squarely on the bubble. While they are in the field for now, they would be subject to expulsion if bid thieves emerge.

Auburn

Saturday vs. Kentucky | 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)Entering the weekend: First Four OutGame status: Quad 1

Playing Kentucky at home is right on the threshold of what’s considered a Quad 1 game. But don’t get caught up in that. Auburn has lost five straight games and needs a victory over somebody — anybody — to stop the slide and regain traction. The Tigers have decent metrics, but at 14-12 (5-8 SEC) they will be a tough sell if they are hovering around .500 on Selection Sunday.

Texas A&M

Saturday at Oklahoma | 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)Entering the weekend: No. 10 seedGame status: Quad 1

Texas A&M squeaked out a must-win home game against Ole Miss on Wednesday to stop a four-game losing streak. The work continues with back-to-back road games against Oklahoma and Arkansas as first-year coach Bucky McMillan seeks to lead an overhauled Aggies roster to the Big Dance. Regardless of who the coach is, A&M always seems to endure violent swings in league play, and this year is no different.

UCF

Saturday at Utah | 9 p.m. (ESPN+)Entering the weekend: No. 10 seedGame status: Quad 2

UCF snapped out of a three-game skid by toppling TCU in a double bubble battle on Tuesday. Beating Utah is paramount to keeping things on track for the Knights, who have a solid resume but lagging predictive metrics. The Utes just slayed West Virginia on the road, so they should have the full attention of UCF.

Saint Mary’s

Saturday at Washington State | 10 p.m. (ESPN2)Entering the weekend: Last Four InGame status: Quad 2

Saint Mary’s narrowly avoided disaster by edging Seattle 72-70 on Wednesday, skirting what would have been its worst loss. Now comes another tricky game as the Gaels head to face Washington State. The first meeting was an 88-82 home win for Saint Mary’s, which needs to stay on track before closing the regular season against WCC stalwarts Santa Clara and Gonzaga. 

Santa Clara

Saturday at San Francisco | 10 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)Entering the day: Last Four InGame status: Quad 2

Santa Clara came up short in a potential resume-defining opportunity against Gonzaga last Saturday. Another chance for a statement comes Wednesday at Saint Mary’s, when the Broncos will go for a season sweep of the Gaels. For now, beating San Francisco would be highly advisable if Santa Clara wishes to stay on the right side of the bubble heading into the final week of the WCC regular season.

Ohio State 

Sunday at No. 15 Michigan State | 1 p.m. (CBS)Entering the day: First Four OutGame status: Quad 1 

Ohio State is still searching for its first Quad 1 win. The Buckeyes are 0-8 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2 and spotless across Quads 3/4. Their predictive metrics average out around 37th nationally, which is good. The resume is simply in need of a boost. Clearly, slaying Michigan State inside the Breslin Center would be a jolt for their at-large hopes. Even if it doesn’t happen, a forthcoming road game against Iowa and a home game against Purdue are still waiting.