Every Friday leading up to conference tournaments I’ll take an early look at some of Saturday’s biggest college basketball games based on the opening lines. This Saturday features an SEC showdown between Arkansas and Florida, while Arizona hosts Kansas in a key Big 12 matchup.
I’ll give an early lean for each game and where I think the line will move closer to tip-off. These are just leans, unless I mention I officially gave out a pick on SportsLine in the analysis.
Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona Wildcats
I bet against Arizona last Saturday on the road at Houston but came away extremely impressed with the Wildcats. I wasn’t surprised that they won the game, but rather how they won it. Very few teams push Houston around, but Arizona did in an impressive defensive performance.
I expect another defensive grinder this Saturday when Kansas goes to Tucson. Like Arizona, the Jayhawks got a big win over Houston thanks to a defense that held the Cougars to just 56 points on 38% shooting.
This game could come down to rebounding. Arizona has a big edge on both the offensive and defensive boards, which is key against a Kansas defense that ranks first in 2-point field goal percentage. The Wildcats don’t shoot many threes, so second-chance points will be a big factor if the Jayhawks’ can’t keep Arizona’s big front line off the offensive glass.
I do believe Kansas can keep this game close, though. It’s tough to bet against Arizona at home, although Bill Self’s teams typically excel in the underdog role. I expect a lower-scoring game, and if the Jayhawks can limit Arizona’s second-chance opportunities, they should stay within the big number.
Leans: Kansas +9.5 and Under 149.5
Bet the Under in Kansas vs. Arizona at Caesars Sportsbook:
Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators
Florida is rolling right now. The Gators are 13-1 in their last 14 games, winning 11 of those matchups by double-digits. Florida gets one of its toughest tests of the season on Saturday when Arkansas and its high-flying offense comes to town.
The Hogs are playing at a blistering pace and have scored 80+ points in 12 of their 15 SEC games. Led by freshman sensation Darius Acuff (22.2 PPG), Arkansas has four players scoring in double-digits.
While the Razorbacks have the SEC’s top offense, they will be facing the conference’s No. 1 defense. Florida’s defense ranks first in the SEC in efficiency, rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage. The bottom line is, it’s tough to score on the Gators and when teams miss shots, Florida doesn’t allow many second-chance opportunities.
Even though the Gators’ defense has been impressive in league play, I still like this game to go Over. Todd Golden has shown he will run when teams want to play fast with Florida. The Gators averaged 92 points in five wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Texas A&M — all teams that rank top 80 in tempo.
I lean Arkansas at +10.5. I make the line closer to 7.5.
Lean: Arkansas +10.5
Bet the Razorbacks to cover the spread in Arkansas vs. Florida at DraftKings:
Gonzaga Bulldogs at St. Mary’s Gaels
These two teams typically play close games, so I like to take the underdog when the line is high. The first time they met, I played St. Mary’s +8.5 and the Gaels just got in under the number, losing, 73-65.
That game was closer than the final score suggests. St. Mary’s actually led by four at halftime and hung on late for the cover. I expect another tight game this time around, although there isn’t nearly as much value taking the Gaels at +1.5. The question is, can St. Mary’s shoot better from the perimeter? They were just 6-of-21 (28.6%) in the first meeting.
This matchup is pretty even on paper. The biggest edge one team has is St. Mary’s at the foul line. The Gaels are the top free throw shooting team in the WCC at 80 percent, while Gonzaga ranks last at 67.8 percent. This was a factor in the first game when St. Mary’s went 23-of-25 (92%) from the foul line.
The Gaels are undefeated at home this season, and I like that trend to continue on Saturday. Gonzaga is the better overall team, although I love how St. Mary’s is playing right now. The Gaels as a slight home dog will likely be an official play for me.
Lean: St. Mary’s +1.5
Bet on the Gaels to cover at home against Gonzaga at DraftKings:
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