Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix race betting guide and what the F1 markets predict will happen

The Australian Grand Prix weekend is finally underway with teams and drivers taking to the Albert Park circuit overnight for the first two practice sessions of the season.

It is the second year in a row that Albert Park has been picked to host the opening race, with the famous Melbourne track first hosting an F1 race back in 1996.

The circuit is flat and uses roads that are open to the public throughout the year, meaning overtaking can be tricky and the Safety Car has featured more often than not in recent years.

Here is everything you need to know about the Australian Grand Prix and the Albert Park circuit as you prepare your weekend bets.

What happened last year?

Norris began his title-winning season by taking his first Australian Grand Prix victory from pole position, although it was far from straightforward.

Both he and team mate Piastri slid off the track when a heavy downpour hit during Lap 44, causing the McLaren duo to allow Verstappen to take the lead in the race.

However, Norris recovered to take the race win, finishing less than a second ahead of Verstappen and eight seconds clear of Russell in third.

Grid position of last five winners

Three of the last five Melbourne race winners have started from pole position, with the exceptions being Valtteri Bottas in 2019 and Carlos Sainz in 2024.

However, on those occasions, they still started on the front row from second place on the grid.

Chances of finishing first from pole positon

Only one of the last five drivers to begin the Australian Grand Prix in pole position has failed to finish on the podium when Verstappen suffered brake problems just three laps into the 2024 race.

Back in 2019, Lewis Hamilton started on pole but ended the race in second place behind team mate Bottas, while Charles Leclerc in 2022, Verstappen in 2023 and Norris in 2025 all topped the podium.

In-race advice

Expect the unexpected is the best advice for the first race of the new era of F1 as drivers get to grips with the altered driving style required under new technical regulations, while we also have little data to help judge how teams will respond under race conditions.

When you also consider the high rate of Safety Car deployment and the chance of some changing weather conditions, you have all the ingredients for a fantastic race.

Be prepared to forget any preconceived views you had on the teams from testing and Friday practice once the real action starts on Sunday.

Keep a close eye on the live timing to make sure you know what is happening throughout the field and don’t be shy to step in if you think the odds of an outlying tyre choice or pit stop strategy playing off are generous.

The winning habit

Almost a third of the field have previously won in Melbourne, including Hamilton, Bottas, Leclerc, Verstappen, Sainz, Norris and Fernando Alonso.

Now-Ferrari star Hamilton is the only multiple time winner in both 2008 and 2015, with the British driver currently priced with odds around 7/1 (8.0, +700) as fourth favourite to add a third success in 2026.

Podium potential

Verstappen is the only driver on the grid with three Australian podium finishes in the last five runnings, finishing third in 2019, first in 2023 and second last year.

However, the Red Bull driver failed to finish in both 2022 and 2024, leaving him with odds at around 5/6 (1/83, -120) for another top three finish this season.

Points prospects

Nico Hulkenberg often shines around the streets of Melbourne and has finished in the top 10 in an impressive eight of his last nine visits.

After placing within the points in the last three seasons, the German is available at up to 3/1 (4.0, +300) to grab early points on the board in his first drive for Audi.

Who are the favourites this year?

Heading into the weekend, Russell is the 9/4 (3.25, +225) favourite to win the Australian Grand Prix this season for Mercedes, with Verstappen his closest rival at 4/1 (5.0, +400) and Leclerc as third favourite at 9/2 (5.5, +450).

As for the reigning world champion, Norris is currently priced as the 10/1 (11.0, +1000) sixth favourite to repeat his Melbourne win this season.

Key stats to consider before betting

The last six races in Melbourne have been won by different drivers.

Ferrari won four of the last seven races in Australia with three different drivers.

Oscar Piastri finished eighth, fourth and ninth in his first three races in his home city.

Weather forecast

Like last season, there is currently rain forecast in Melbourne across the weekend, but it looks more likely to affect Qualifying than the race itself.

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