Michigan enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, and Dusty May’s team looks every bit the part of a Final Four contender.
But the bottom half of this bracket could turn chaotic in a hurry.
No. 6 seed Tennessee has an outstanding 1-2 punch of Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, surrounded by a cast of defensive ends in the frontcourt. No. 3 seed Virginia has its own intimidating 1-2 punch with Malik Thomas and Thijs de Ridder, surrounded by a deep collection of size and shooting. Miami (Ohio) is lurking in the weeds. And then there’s Kentucky.
Buckle up. This region could be a wild ride.
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Here’s a complete look at the Midwest Region ahead of this week’s action.
Best first-round game
(8) Saint Louis vs. (9) Georgia: This will be a smorgasbord of offense. Georgia cracked the century mark a whopping eight times this year. The Dawgs rank third nationally in points per game. Meanwhile, Saint Louis rates third in the country in effective field goal percentage. There will be buckets, especially in transition, where both of these offenses wax opponents. Coach Josh Schertz, star player Robbie Avila and the Billikens make it a personal mission to create no-dribble layups — the highest-quality shot in all of college basketball. Georgia counters with big man Somto Cyrili, who is a terrifying rim protector and one of the best athletes that you can find. First one to 90 wins?
Top potential matchup
(1) Michigan vs. (2) Iowa State: The United Center would be on fire if Michigan and Iowa State meet with a Final Four trip on the line. Chicago harbors thousands of Michigan graduates, and Iowa State’s outstanding fanbase will make the five-hour drive into the Windy City in droves. The talent here is as good as it gets, too. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson are two of the best Swiss Army Knife hoopers that you can find. They both are enormous and do just about everything for their respective clubs.
Cinderella team that will surprise
(12) Akron: Akron is going to be up for a scrap against short-handed Texas Tech.
The Zips have three senior guards — Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott and Bowen Hardman — who are all shooting over 37% from 3-point range and have hit 70-plus treys. This is the third straight year John Groce’s club has made the NCAA Tournament, so it’s a battle-tested unit that is ready for the bright lights. Up front, Akron has real players. Senior Evan Mahaffey started his tenure at Ohio State and can handle the LeJuan Watts assignment. His little brother, freshman forward Eric Mahaffey, is one of the best freshmen in mid-major basketball, and big man Amani Lyles can stretch the floor. Texas Tech is a rough draw, largely because Grant McCasland is a shrewd in-game mastermind and the Red Raiders have the best player on the floor in Christian Anderson, but Akron is going to put up a fight.
Without JT Toppin, Texas Tech has turned into a heavy jump-shooting team. It doesn’t have that same interior sledgehammer to eviscerate Akron’s vulnerable interior defense. If this turns into a jump-shooting contest, Akron can unequivocally hang around.
Team that will make a far-too-early exit
(7) Kentucky: It’d be stunning if Kentucky advanced to the second weekend. The Wildcats have a tough first-round tilt against No. 10 seed Santa Clara. The Broncos go nine deep and have legit dudes at every level of the floor. If Kentucky sneaks past that one, No. 2 seed Iowa State will await.
Kentucky’s bully-ball approach will not work against T.J. Otzelberger’s outfit, and the Wildcats’ lack of a true point guard could be exacerbated by Iowa State’s swarming defense, which will put two to the ball at will. Also, when is the last time that Kentucky played 80 good minutes of basketball in a row? Even during an 8-1 surge in SEC play, Kentucky was frequently digging itself out of holes. Kentucky has to play its best basketball of the season to earn a Sweet 16 bid, but this draw is no slouch.
Six players to watch
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan: Lendeborg has exceeded all the hype. The top-rated UAB transfer has transformed into the Big Ten Player of the Year at Michigan. The 6-foot-9, 240-pound forward is the ultimate queen on the chessboard. He picks up opposing point guards (!) for all 94 feet. He’s expanded his game out to the 3-point stripe. He rebounds. He drops pocket passes. He puts defenders on a poster with LeBron-like tomahawk jams. Lendeborg is playing like a potential lottery pick.Robbie Avila, Saint Louis: “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” finally gets his One Shining Moment. The senior center is one of the top-shooting five-men in all of college basketball. Avila shot over 40% from downtown on 143 attempts, and he can attack long closeouts and create off the bounce with the best of them. Avila also has ice water in his veins. Christian Anderson, Texas Tech: Anderson has created 1,310 points this year for Texas Tech as a scorer or a passer. That’s the top mark in all of college basketball. Anderson is averaging 18.9 points, 7.6 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.3 steals while shooting north of 42% from 3-point land. He has in-the-gym range, and Anderson is a special pick-and-roll dynamo. He is the Steph Curry of the Big 12.Labaron Philon, Alabama: Philon is ice cold. The slippery sophomore can score and score and score and score some more. Philon is shooting 40% from downtown, 46% on floaters and 66% at the rim. He’s a true three-level bucket. Pray for any big man who gets put on an island against Philon in the closing minutes.Eian Elmer, Miami (Ohio): Elmer is not the leading scorer, but he may be the RedHawks’ most important player. The 6-foot-6, 215-pound wing is the best defender on the team. He embraces taking tough assignments every single night, and he’s shooting over 43% from 3-point range on 5.0 attempts per game. If Miami wants to make a run, Elmer has to play great in his 3-and-D role. He will take the assignment against SMU’s Jaron Pierre in the First Four, and then he’d have a chance to go up against Tennessee’s future lottery pick, Nate Ament, in the Round of 64. Elmer is the X-Factor to keep Miami’s dream season alive.Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State: Jefferson is stuffing the stat sheet for Iowa State, averaging 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.9 dimes. No big man has a higher assist rate than Jefferson (27.7). He throws dimes in every way. Left-hand, cross-court dots, no-look pocket passes and everything in between. Jefferson is a monster.
Midwest Regional winner
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(1) Michigan: It’s Dusty May’s region to lose. Michigan has been the bully of the Big Ten, and it can bully-ball its way to the Final Four. Michigan shoots 65% at the rim. Its opponents shoot just 50%. That 15% delta is ridiculous and provides such a high floor every single night.
Guard Elliot Cadeau, a transfer from North Carolina, is playing his best basketball of the season, surrounding the nation’s best frontcourt. When Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara are rolling, Michigan feels inevitable. 16-seed Howard or UMBC has no shot. I can’t quite get there with SLU or Georgia in the second round. Alabama would get blasted on the boards in the Sweet 16, and Michigan has more talent than Iowa State in that potential Elite Eight brawl.
Michigan jets its way to Indianapolis.
March Madness Regional previews: East | West | South
