Prominent NBA Player Agent Expects 2025 ‘Free Agent Recession’ – Basketball Insiders

A prominent NBA player agent is expecting a a very difficult market for free agents this summer and his preparing his clients accordingly.

The Brooklyn Nets are the only team projected to have significant cap space this summer. They are, however, not expected to shell out major cash for players they don’t believe belong in that elite upper echelon.

“Actually it’s no leverage,” the agent told ESPN. “I’ve prepared my clients for a free agent recession this summer. Next year will be different, the cap will be going up and teams will clean up their books as they deal with the new spending rules. So you may have to wait and try again.”

Among the top free agents this summer are LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. James is expected to remain with the Los Angeles Lakers while Irving and Harden have already been there and done that with the Nets.

The most notable restricted free agents on the market are the Chicago Bulls’ Josh Giddey, Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga, and current Net Cam Thomas.

Another veteran NBA player agent is also not optimistic about what the market could bring for those entering it.

“There’s only one team that has a lot of cap space [Brooklyn] and they may want to do a slower rebuild and aren’t looking to spend it all now,” one veteran agent said. “I’ve never seen a free agency where only one team has real cap space in my career. These free agents are f—ed.”

Changing Financial Landscape

NBA franchises are being much more particular about how they spend their money because of the ramifications of the second apron. It means that the days of Timofey Mozgov and Bismack Biyombo receiving significant overpays are long gone.

It also means that team building will be much more focused on depth than going top heavy with a “Big Three” or “Big Four.”

Teams at the top of the standings this season in the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and Houston Rockets certainly reflect that change in how teams operate.

There has also been an increasing notion of pre-agency rather than free agency. It’s the concept of signing a player in the final year of his contract with the expectation that he will re-sign in the summer.

The Golden State Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler in the final year of his contract and quickly inked a two-year extension. The Toronto Raptors also traded for Brandon Ingram in the final year of his deal and signed a three-year extension soon after.