It’s Tuesday morning during the best week of the year, and the official tipoff of March Madness approaches. Are you finishing your bracket by the first game that afternoon? Or will you take the next 48 hours to keep studying and agonizing over potential upset picks?
Realistically, does it even matter?
On Thursday, the biggest domino fell in the push to expand the NCAA Tournament, as the men’s and women’s selection committees officially voted to increase the number of participating teams from 68 to 76, a change that will take effect by the 2027 tournament. The biggest change is that there will now be 12 “Opening Round” games spread across Tuesday and Wednesday.
It’s the first time the men’s tournament has expanded in 15 years. In 2011, the NCAA expanded from 64 to 68 teams, adding a First Four play-in round. (The women’s tournament added its own First Four in 2022.)
So, how does all of this affect Bracket Culture?
Maybe not so much. ESPN is not planning to expand its Tournament Challenge to include the play-in games. Neither is CBS. Most bracket contests run by major media outlets are expected to remain unchanged. So as long as you still have your bracket completed by Thursday morning, you’re good.
“I don’t think it’s going to be that big of a deal,” ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, America’s original bracketologist, told The Athletic. “As long as the main bracket of 64 is preserved (for tipoff at) noon on Thursday — which is absolutely what’s going to happen — the vast majority of people will simply play along and not care about expansion.”
In other words, if you ignore the First Four games played Tuesday and Wednesday, you can probably ignore the additional play-in matchups as well.
The expansion has been anticipated for years. Coaches and conference commissioners pushed for it, but social media reactions suggest the public largely abhors the decision. Supporters argue that more teams and players should be able to experience the greatest sporting event on earth. Critics have argued it’s nothing more than appeasement of the power conferences, which want more at-large bids for mediocre, high-major teams. In a release touting the expansion, the NCAA said the new format will generate an additional $131 million over the next six years for all participating schools.
The NCAA Tournament is one of the biggest gambling events annually, with the American Gaming Association estimating before the 2026 tournament tipped that $3.3 billion would be wagered on games.
And that’s just what’s done legally.
Roughly one-fourth of American adults, close to 67 million people, participate in some form of bracket challenges, though many of those are unofficial — think Venmo’ing your co-worker $50, which also includes wagering your pride, of course. (Technically, your office pool is illegal, but we promise not to tell anyone.)
The charm of the NCAA Tournament has long been that it appeals to everyone, both casuals and fanatics. But realistically, Lunardi said, “a lot of people don’t watch college basketball until that (first tournament) weekend.”
“I realize hoopheads like you and me want to know which of the 11 seeds are playing which of the 6 seeds,” Lunardi added, “but the average person wouldn’t know who the 11 seeds are or could be until Selection Sunday.”
A blank mockup of what the 76-team bracket will look like. Courtesy of the NCAA
More than 26 million brackets were submitted for ESPN’s Tournament Challenge. Individuals can submit up to 25 brackets when playing in ESPN’s official challenge, though if you’re using ESPN’s platform to create your own private group or challenge, the organizer can limit an individual’s entries.
While most challenges are expected to remain the same, some outlets are still exploring changes to account for the additional play-in teams and games.
Part of the issue comes down to bracket scoring. Often in bracket challenges, individuals are rewarded for correctly picking upsets, and sometimes, the bigger the seed difference, the more points they earn. Play-in games pit the same seeds against one another, meaning you can’t technically pick an upset.
In a mock bracket released by the NCAA, the association confirmed that the 12 play-in games will all feature double-digit seeds. There will be two 11 vs. 11 games, four 12 vs. 12 games, four 16 vs. 16 games and two 15 vs. 15 games.
In a way, Lunardi said, adding teams “just takes away the bubble debate — because now all the bubble teams are gonna play each other in the play-in.”
Still, he acknowledges it’ll be a “massive change” in terms of game prep and logistics, particularly as more teams won’t know their first-round opponents until late Tuesday or Wednesday night.
“I can’t imagine coaches like that, but they like getting fired even less,” Lunardi joked, a nod to the argument some coaches have made in favor of expansion, saying more teams in the postseason means more job security.
The 12-over-5, in particular, has long been a popular upset pick, and the data shows why: Since 2008, at least one 12 has upset a 5 in all but three NCAA Tournaments.
To ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, one of the most prominent voices in college hoops, a few more teams don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.
“These play-in games — and we’ll call it something different to make everyone feel better, even though the NBA calls theirs a play-in — they usually don’t count in your bracket challenge unless you advanced someone out of the first round (of 64),” Bilas said. “So they’ve added teams to the play-in round, and if that floats your boat, great.
“But for most people, myself included, the tournament starts Thursday.”
