Before the 2026 season has seen a single snap, it’s a generally held belief that Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning will be a top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. However, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian thinks there is a chance that Manning returns to Texas in 2027.
“You know, we haven’t had that discussion, but I will tell you, I would not be surprised [if he returns to Texas],” Sarkisian said on Up & Adams. “I think Arch really loves college football, I really do. I think he loves the University of Texas, you know he does pretty good through NIL [name, image and likeness], you know, he’s got some pretty good endorsements right now, which is a credit to him. And obviously, the lineage of the last name and the brand of the University of Texas, all those things coming together, but again, on the same token, I wouldn’t be surprised if he declares and decides to go to the draft.”
Manning landed at Texas in the Class of 2023 as a five-star recruit and the top-ranked quarterback in the cycle. Since then, he spent two seasons largely as a backup before becoming the starter in 2025.
In his one season as a starter, Manning completed 61.4% of his passes for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also rushed for 399 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Arch Manning returning to Texas could be bad for Steve Sarkisian
On the surface, Manning returning to Texas would be good for Sarkisian. However, digging deeper into it, there’s reason to be concerned about what that would mean for Sarkisian.
Manning went to Texas, in large part, because of Sarkisian. Over the years, he developed a reputation as a quarterback whisperer and developer. The plan was that he would be the one who made Manning an NFL-ready quarterback.
Even with NIL and money coming in to Manning at Texas, it doesn’t compare to the top-of-the-line money NFL rookies can make. In 2025, On3 (h/t The Sporting News) estimated he’s making about $6.8 million at Texas. That’s less than Manning would be making as a top-seven pick.
On top of that, every year a player waits to get to the NFL, it takes them longer to get to their second professional contract. That’s where the real money is. So, Manning not going pro, even with NIL, wouldn’t make sense unless he actually wasn’t ready. In four years, it was Sarkisian’s job to get him ready.
It’s also hard to imagine that Manning, coming off a trip to the College Football Playoff, wouldn’t be positioned to be at least a top-three pick. Again, the implication is that Sarkisian fell short of expectations on the field if Manning isn’t positioned to make much more money in the NFL.
All of that amounts to potential doom for Sarkisian. If he misses the College Football Playoff for a second season in a row, and if he hasn’t developed Manning into a top NFL pick in four seasons, you could make the argument that Texas isn’t getting what it expects from Sarkisian anymore.
Coming up short of expectations when boosters are putting even more money on the line than they used to isn’t a good spot to be in. It’s enough to put Sarkisian on the hot seat.
