Which college hoops coaches will stay put through 2036, and why the final AP Poll is pointless

It’s a very slow time in college basketball. Mid-July has two evaluation periods, but early July is one of the slower periods for the sport.

So it felt like a good time for a mailbag. A very list-heavy mailbag. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions. Let’s get to it.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

You’ve written a lot about Dusty May leaving Michigan for the NBA and what that says about college basketball. Can we spill some ink appreciating the top coaches who are fully invested in building programs with a lasting culture? The two that immediately come to mind are Kelvin Sampson and Tom Izzo, who have been at their current schools for over a decade. Which coaches are in line to follow their lead and stay at one school into the 2030s? — Luigi M.

Fun exercise. I’ll say these seven coaches will still be coaching at their schools 10 years from now. Before getting to the list, let me just say that I think it’s possible we see more movement over the next 10 years than we’ve seen in the previous decade. Getting support from donors has never been more important. You have to pay for these rosters somehow, and it takes donor support to reach the level necessary to be competitive — a number that seems to be increasing every year. Have a few below-expectation seasons, and donor fatigue will set in, and the best way to motivate donors is to give them a new coach. The current system is also likely to push more coaches toward early retirement or toward jumping to the NBA. Plus, there are a decent number of successful coaches who are already nearing retirement.

Also, to give an idea of how rare it is to still be coaching at the same school in 10 years, here are the high-major coaches in the five big leagues who are 10-plus years into the job: Izzo, Sampson, Rick Barnes, Matt Painter, Steve Pikiell, Chris Collins, Dana Altman, Bill Self, Jamie Dixon, Tad Boyle, Scott Drew, Johnny Dawkins and Brad Brownell. That’s 16.5 percent. Here are my best guesses at the coaches who will be on this list in 2036.

Ryan Odom, Virginia: Virginia was one of the best programs in the ACC under Tony Bennett, has proved it will stick with a coach and seems to have given Odom the resources to succeed. He’s only 51 and won 30 games in his first year at the school.

Matt Painter, Purdue: Painter will turn 56 by the start of this upcoming season and is the oldest coach on this list. It’s definitely possible he retires in the next 10 years, but I’m betting he at least has another 10 years in him. He’s a Purdue lifer, and it’d be shocking if he left for another job. He has already spent 21 seasons as the head coach at Purdue, loves coaching ball, and while he’s outspoken about changes that need to occur in the sport, it doesn’t seem like the current setup has beaten him down. The one reason he might feel inclined to retire in the next 10 years is to give current assistant PJ Thompson the opportunity to be the next head coach. Thompson, 30, seems to be the guy who is destined to replace Painter.

T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State: Otzelberger just signed a 10-year deal, and Iowa State has done everything to try to keep him happy and keep him from considering a move to a blue blood. There was a push for an extension when North Carolina was open and looking like it might reach Otzelberger on its list. The fact Iowa State could stiff-arm UNC is pretty telling. I think Otzelberger is the most likely on this list to end up at another school, but I’ll bet on his loyalty. Otzelberger is extremely close to athletic director Jamie Pollard, who is 61 and could retire in the next decade. But Otzelberger loves Iowa State — his wife played basketball there — and he is trending toward legendary status at the school.

Grant McCasland, Texas Tech: The deep pockets of donors such as Cody Campbell have made Texas Tech one of the best jobs in the sport. McCasland has coached in Texas for all but one year of the past 23 years, and it’s hard to see him leaving the state. He is a Baylor alum and likely to be Baylor’s top choice once Scott Drew retires, but Texas Tech is a better job. Also, Texas Tech is very happy to have McCasland, who has won over 70 percent of his games in three seasons at the school and made the Elite Eight.

Kevin Willard, Villanova: Similar to Odom, Willard had success in his first year and is at a school where a recent coach (Jay Wright) had a long and successful tenure. Villanova is not a stepping-stone job. Also, the Big East currently has a competitive advantage because of its revenue-sharing setup. It’s an advantage to be at a school without football, so long as you can raise the money, because a majority of the rev share goes to men’s hoops. Also, Willard has proved he can consistently win.

Jerrod Calhoun, Cincinnati: The 44-year-old is from Ohio, where he started his career as a student assistant and is considered one of the best young coaches in the game. He is probably the most likely on this list to consider the NBA; Calhoun is a close friend of Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, who was his assistant at Fairmont State and took over for him when he left for Youngstown State. It’s possible Mazzulla convinces his buddy he should take an NBA job, and it’s also possible he has enough success to gain the NBA’s attention.

Ross Hodge, West Virginia: West Virginia athletic director Wren Baker is only 47 and one of the most basketball-savvy ADs in the sport. He has a history with Hodge, who was an assistant coach at North Texas when Baker was the AD there. Hodge, 45, has won 67 games in his first three years as a head coach. I’m betting on him to win consistently enough to keep WVU fans happy, and the AD-coach relationship is an important dynamic for longevity. There probably aren’t a lot of jobs that Hodge would consider leaving his current setup for.

What current college hoops head coach would be embraced by a majority of hoops fans, regardless of school, if he/she had a chance to win a national championship? — Anonymous U.

Four veteran coaches immediately come to mind who have gotten close but have yet to win a title: Tennessee’s Barnes, Purdue’s Painter, Houston’s Sampson and Gonzaga’s Mark Few. Sampson winning would upset a segment of the Indiana fanbase that has never forgotten or forgiven his tenure there. While I don’t think anyone dislikes Few, some fans seem to carry skepticism toward Gonzaga and would probably be frustrated to be proven wrong and see Gonzaga finally win a title. Painter is universally liked (outside of, probably, some IU fans), but I’m going to go with Barnes at the top of this list. Good human. Has consistently won for years. He’s 71. Plus, Tennessee has never made the Final Four. Barnes finally getting the Vols there and winning a title would be a pretty great story.

Answering collectively for voters, how do three wins in the NCAA Tournament vault a team from ninth place in the Big Ten (with a 10-10 record) to No. 15 in the final AP poll? — TM R.

Iowa is the team TM R. is referencing here, and before I get to the question, let me just go on a rant. The AP needs to abolish the final AP poll. No one, except maybe TM R., cares. Votes are due the morning after the national championship game. I am a voter, and I almost forgot about it. Ranking college basketball teams might be my least favorite part of the job, but I do take voting seriously. I try to be consistent with my approach and put thought into where I rank teams every week. I’ll be honest and say I put much less thought into the final one. This year, I forgot to vote and then did so when reminded on a flight back home from Indianapolis. Anyone who has just covered the Final Four and been up late covering the title game probably isn’t in the headspace to vote. (I hadn’t slept.) Other than historical reasons, I cannot think of any good reason for this final poll.

Now, on to the question. I think most voters have a lot of recency bias toward the final poll. I probably have slightly more recency bias than I do for any of the other polls but still consider season-long results. For instance, I had Florida at No. 6 after it lost in the round of 32 to Iowa. Three voters had the Gators 17th. All three had the Sweet 16 teams in their top 16 and had the Elite Eight teams, including Iowa, in their top eight. That’s how the Hawkeyes ended up 15th.

I had them 17, which is still on the high end considering they finished 22nd at KenPom, 23rd at Torvik and 23rd at EvanMiya. You could argue I slighted the two teams below them — Gonzaga (31-4 overall) and Virginia (30-6). But Iowa was much higher in strength of schedule — 26th, per KenPom, compared with Gonzaga (86th) and Virginia (69th) — and Iowa’s win over Florida was a much better win than either of those teams had all year. Plus, the Hawkeyes advanced to the Elite Eight, and those two both lost in the round of 32. This is way too many words for something most probably do not care about, but that’s my logic.