Predicting the NBA MVP is a thankless job. Team record, narratives, injuries, and a host of other external factors can come into play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just went back-to-back, so we can pretty much rule him out — we haven’t seen a three-peat since Larry Bird back in the 80s. A similar level of voter fatigue has set in with Nikola Jokic, who has nabbed the award three times.
And the last exclusion I feel needs to be justified is that of NBA Finals MVP Jalen Brunson. Sorry Knicks fans, but that title run was possible because of the roster’s balance, and I just don’t see him getting there with the counting stats.
So, that’s three of the biggest names I’m ruling out. Sure, I could be wrong, but it feels like a year for a new winner — well, with one exception.
Five favorites for the 2027 NBA MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Miami Heat
This is the exception. Giannis also won back-to-back MVPs back in 2019 and 2020, but a new destination freshens his MVP appeal.
After his trade to the Miami Heat, the Greek Freak will almost certainly be in a top seed, and if he puts up his usual numbers in the process, his name will be high on everyone’s ballots.
He only played 36 games last season, with injuries and the Bucks’ tanking keeping him on the sidelines. Nevertheless, he averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists.
If Erik Spoelstra can make it work, Giannis is a clear front-runner for the MVP award.
Victor Wembanyama – San Antonio Spurs
The betting favorite to take home the award, to the surprise of nobody, is Wemby. The 7’4″ phenomenon took a huge leap last season, remaining the NBA’s outright best defender and adding dominance on the offensive end.
He put up 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 3.1 blocks, taking the Spurs through an unforgiving West to the NBA Finals. The loss to the Knicks will only motivate him to take it up another level, if that’s even possible.
For me, Wembanyama is number one. It’s pretty much a guarantee that he will be the best defender again, so all he needs is another solid offensive season and a top seed, and the award should be his.
Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves
If not Vic, if not Giannis, then who?
Maybe Ant, who has been on a trajectory to superstardom in recent years, has two conference finals appearances in the last three years. He put up 28.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in 2025-26.
The Timberwolves traded for LaMelo Ball, and that’s the most exciting move of the summer for me. If they can find chemistry, with how elite their defense is, a high seed in the Western Conference should be attainable.
Edwards has been in ‘face of the league’ conversations for a while now, and if he puts a good enough case forward, most would be happy to see him win the award.
Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics
This one might be a long shot. There are still question marks around what exactly the Celtics roster will look like next season. Whatever shape it takes, this is a team that finished in the two-seed without their superstar Jayson Tatum last year.
He’s back, though, and we all know how MVP voters love a good narrative.
If Tatum can get back to his absolute best — and he looked very good in the playoffs — and Boston can repeat or better last season’s record, it builds another attractive MVP case for the 28-year-old.
Luka Doncic – Los Angeles Lakers
You didn’t think we were going to do an MVP prediction without Luka?
The 27-year-old has been the odds-on favorite for the award for most of the 2020s. For a generational talent like him, it feels wrong that he has not been named Most Valuable Player yet.
With LeBron James leaving, we don’t know what we’re getting from the Lakers next season. That’s why Luka features so low on this list.
But we know how talented the Slovenian is. He has the ability to put on an MVP-calibre display without blinking. 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists last season — a stat-line worthy of the award.
His fate lies with the team, though. Let’s see if JJ Reddick can figure it all out.
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